NJ-7

In an attempt to move conservative Republican voters away from Leonard Lance, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) sent out a piece of direct mail  -- to hard Republican voters -- criticizing independent Michael Hsing, a GOP Councilman from Bridgewater, from being too conservative for the district.  The attack on Hsing suggests that he is pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cut, and anti-gay marriage, and notes that he was a George W. Bush delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention. 

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With just four days left in the 2008 campaign, Republican Leonard Lance is poised to eke out an upset victory against Democrati Linda Stender, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's The Pindell Report, which offers independent analysis of federal- and state-level races.  Pindell today moved New Jersey's 7th district seat from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.

Pindell says that the decision of Democrats to dispatch their highest profile surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for Stender is not something a campaign does when its ahead going into the final hours of a race.  PolitickerNJ.com reported this week that the Stender campaign has an internal poll showing her trailing Lance by four points.

"How did we get to this point?," Pindell asked.  "After a year of national Democrats and aligned organizations dumping millions of dollars behind Stender, the Democrat missed when she spent part of the last stretch of the campaign talking about abortion. If there is anything we learned from this cycle, it’s that social issues didn’t matter much. Other Democrats across the country gained traction by focusing on the economy. Should Stender indeed fall short, it would be a disappointing end to a race that Democrats had invested heavily in."

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Linda Stender trails Leonard Lance by four percentage points in her campaign's most recent internal poll, according to sources in the Stender campaign -- and confirmed by Democratic officials familiar with the 7th district campaign. Former President Bill Clinton is being dispatched to Cranford on Saturday to help boost Stender's chances to win the open House seat -- which Republicans have held continuously since 1956. 

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If Linda Stender loses her race for Congress next week, New Jersey Democrats are prepared to blame Emily's List and other Washington-based organizations for her defeat, according to sources within the Stender campaign.  The seventh district House seat has been viewed as a likely pickup for Democrats, but internal polling from both campaigns is showing that Republican Leonard Lance can win the seat that Stender nearly took away from retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson two years ago.  Suddenly worried about blowing an opportunity to take a seat the GOP has held since 1956, Democrats are bringing in big guns, like former President Bill Clinton, to help Stender win.

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Former President Bill Clinton will be come to New Jersey on Saturday to campaign for Assemblywoman Linda Stender’s (D-Fanwood) Congressional bid, according to a Democrat close to the campaign. The time, place and date have not yet been set, but it will be somewhere in the 7th District, where Stender is facing off against State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington).  PolitickerNJ.com will have more details as the schedule takes shape. 

CLICK HERE TO READ WALLY EDGE'S VIEW OF WHAT THE CLINTON VISIT MEANS TO THE 7TH DISTRICT RACE

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Democrats will pick up congressional seats of retiring Reps. Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson as part of a national trend that will net them seven U.S. Senate seats and sixteen House seats national, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal and state races.

Pindell says that Democrat Frank Lautenberg will win re-election to the U.S. Senate and that Barack Obama will carry New Jersey and win its fifteen electoral votes.

"In two Republican-leaning districts, Democrats John Adler and Linda Stender are going to Congress," said Pindell. "Democrats have momentum and they're winning just about all of the marginal races."

The Pindell Report has the Senate at 58-41, and the House at 252-180.  The Senate races in Alaska, and House races in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas, remain toss-ups.

"The economy, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combine to push Senate and House races that were toss-ups last week into the Democratic column," said Pindell.   "While the Democrats will control the White House and both houses of Congress, they won't get the 60 Senate seats they need for a filibuster-proof majority." Read More >

WASHINGTON – Republican U.S. House candidate Chris Myers will get a fundraising shot in the arm from Charlie Black, a John McCain advisor and former chief lobbyist for BKSH & Associates.

Black will be hosting the event at Washington D.C.'s Capitol Hill Club on Wednesday evening. Also attending the event will be U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa) and the New Jersey Republican congressional delegation. Individuals are being asked to contribute $500 apiece, while PACs are being asked to give $1,000.

Myers, who is the mayor of Medford, is facing off against Democratic state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill Township), in November. At stake is the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton (R-Mount Holly Township).

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• Lance still faces money issues and Bush - in addition to Stender

• Stender tries to keep Lance battling Bush

• Lance denounces prez of Iran as a 'thug'

• 7th Congressional District debate underway in Scotch Plains
  

• Lance and Myers hit opponents on Rangel
  

• Pindell Report boosts Myers, Lance

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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with its first television advertisement targeting Republican Leonard Lance, a 30-second spot tying the Flemington state Senator to Trenton.

The ad began running on cable stations in the 7th Congressional District last week, with a media buy totaling about $116,000.

“Watch Leonard Lance do the old Trenton dance,” an announcer says. “Dancing to the tune of big oil, pocketing thousands in campaign cash. Lance has those Trenton moves, voting against property tax relief for us but voting himself a 40 percent pay raise, sponsoring a state budget that gave us nearly $3 billion in new debt that paved the way for higher taxes.

“A new Lance dance in D.C.?” the ad concludes. “No thanks.”

Lance is competing against state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) for the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Michael Ferguson (R-New Providence). Democrats have identified the race as a pickup opportunity, with the DCCC reserving about $1.8 million in air time in the district. The committee has already taken Lance to task in mail pieces distributed to residents in the district.

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Linda Stender leads Leonard Lance by three percentage points, 36%-33%, in the race for Congress from New Jersey’s seventh district, according to an Anzalone/Liszt Research poll conducted for the Stender campaign.

Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing, a Republican running as an Independent, is polling 9%.  Tom Abrams, a retired marketing executive running as an anti-war candidate, is receiving 2% of the vote.

The poll shows presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat in the district: McCain 45%, Obama 43%.  President Bush has an upside-down favorable rating of 30%-64%.

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