NJ-03

The Pindell Report, an independent analysis of state and federal races edited by Politicker.com's James W. Pindell, today upgraded the 3rd district House race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic,” and said that the contest in the 7th district has become more competitive.

The ranking corresponds with more optimistic national prospects for Republicans, with presidential candidate John McCain surging in the two weeks since the Republican National Convention began.  In New Jersey, recent polls put McCain within three points of Barack Obama. 

“These are two longtime Republican seats.  Democrats haven't won the 3rd since 1882 and the 7th since 1956.  Republicans are getting over heated primaries, while Democrats had cleared the field for John Adler and Linda Stender,” said Pindell.  “While the Democrats have much more money, internal polls show this race to be getting a little closer.  If John McCain is getting the base behind him as polls suggest then Lance and Myers might have a shot after all.”

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BLOOMINGTON, Minn. -- Yes, there were hard feelings after the brutal 3rd District Republican congressional primary campaign between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly. And yes, Ocean County Republicans weren’t immediately lining up to donate to Myers’s cash strapped general election campaign.

But George Gilmore, the powerful chairman of the Ocean County Republican Party, said that he hosted a fundraiser for Myers two weeks ago with former baseball star Al Leiter, who grew up in Ocean County but lives in Florida.  Leiter is on deck for a distant future political run, possibly for statewide office.

If the fences between the Ocean County and Burlington County Republicans weren’t mended a month ago, they are now, according to Gilmore.

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The Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) seems confident that Democrats will pick up two House seats in New Jersey this year, but stopped short of promising financial help to Dennis Shulman, a blind Rabbi who is challenging Rep. Scott Garrett in the 5th district.

"The closer we got to Election Day the more opportunities developed. Sometimes as you get closer some fall off the list. The last time we went through this in 2006, the closer we got to voting day the more competitive," said Rep. Christopher Van Hollen (D-Md.) in a conference call with reporters today.

The DCCC's third priority in New Jersey is Shulman, who has raised a lot of money for a challenger in a long-shot district, and whose unique personal story has recently drawn national media attention from publications like Time, Newsweek and The New Yorker.

"The short answer is that we're very impressed with what they've done and we see that campaign on an upward trajectory," he said. Read More >

One of the reasons Burlington County Republicans picked Christopher Myers, the relatively obscure Mayor of Medford, to succeed Jim Saxton in Congress was his ability to raise money.  When the Lockheed-Martin Vice President entered the race, the buzz among GOP insiders was that he had the ability to compete with State Sen. John Adler in the fundraising department.  Adler has raised $1.9 million in a district where Democrats haven’t won since 1882, and Myers, after a tough primary, has just a little more than $150K on hand.

One of the legendary scams in Bergen County politics came in 1984, when Republicans were considering candidates to take on newly-elected Democratic Congressman Robert Torricelli. Torricelli had won the seat two years earlier, when he ousted three-term GOP incumbent Harold Hollenbeck by a 53%-46% margin. The political climate in 1982 (and congressional redistricting in the 9th) favored Democrats and Torricelli leveraged the national contacts he made working for Vice President Walter Mondale and running Jimmy Carter's 1980 re-election campaign in Illinois to help him raise $266,000 -- about $70,000 more than Hollenbeck had.

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With only $155,000 on hand, Medford Mayor Christopher Myers, is facing the most well-funded open seat challenger in the country: State Sen. John Adler, who has amassed a $1.9 war chest. 

But a potentially huge pool of cash looms on the horizon for Myers.  According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Jim Saxton, the retiring 12-term Republican incumbent, has a war chest of a little over $1 million.

Will Saxton help Myers, his protégé and close friend, level the playing field in a district the GOP has held since 1884?

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Voters of the 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts: meet Captain B.J. Hunnicutt.

Blue Jersey reports that a several liberal bloggers have commissioned a retaliatory robocall aimed at two congressional districts in New Jersey that were targeted with calls by Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group.

The call by Freedom’s Watch blames Democratic congressional candidates John Adler and Linda Stender, both state legislators, for doing nothing to repeal the state’s 14 cent gas tax.

New Jersey has the third lowest gas tax in the country.

The blogger-commissioned call stars actor Mike Farrell, who played the character B.J. Hunnicutt in M*A*S*H, associated the group with the Bush Administration.

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Dennis Shulman, a blind Rabbi and psychologist challenging Rep. Scott Garrett in the fifth district, has raised $585,000 and has $258,000 remaining in his warchest – more  than $100K more than Christopher Myers, the GOP congressional candidate in the third district.  Myers, who faces Democrat John Adler for the seat of retiring Rep. Jim Saxton,has raised $626,549 and has $155,406 cash on hand.  Shulman and Myers each won contested primaries.

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Democrat John Adler’s congressional campaign says that groups that used to support outgoing Rep. Jim Saxton (R-Mount Holly) are falling in line behind Adler as opposed Saxton’s heir apparent, Republican Chris Myers.

The latest group to jump to Adler, according to a press release issued by Adler’s campaign today, is The International Brotherhood of Teamsters Joint Council #73. Adler’s campaign also has the endorsement of three other groups that used to back Saxton: The Fraternal Order of Police, Sierra Club, and the Recreational Fishing Alliance.

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Two Democratic state lawmakers running for Congress are being targeted by a new series of robocalls about gas prices from Freedom’s Watch, the conservative-leaning advocacy group. The calls, which will begin today, will go out to residents represented by Assemblywoman Linda Stender and Sen. John Adler.

“Hi, this is an emergency gas price alert from Freedom’s Watch. Did you know New Jersey gas taxes add more than 14 cents to every gallon of gas? 14 cents!” an announcer intones on the calls going out to voters in Stender and Adler’s districts. The call then asks what Stender and Adler are doing to address the issue. “Nothing,” announcer says.

“If we can’t depend on Linda Stender to stand up for us today, when can we count on her?” asks the call targeting Stender.

The robocalls will be going out to homes throughout the week. It is the fourth set of calls Freedom’s Watch has released slamming Democratic House incumbents and candidates. The organization just wrapped up its first radio advertisement campaign targeting Democratic incumbents.

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John Adler has raised nearly $2 million so far in his bid to win election to the U.S. House of Representatives. His GOP rival, Medford Mayor Christopher Myers, is not expected to exceed $500,000 when he files his second quarter report this month.  That's a huge advantage for Adler, who seeks to become the first Democrat to win this House seat since Thomas Ferrell in 1882.

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