Murray Sabrin

[img_assist|nid=18131|title=Frank Lautenberg, 84, won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, defeating Rob Andrews by a wide margin|desc=Getty Images Photo|link=none|align=none|width=420|height=265]

Incumbent Frank Lautenberg has won renomination for a fifth term in the United States Senate. He leads Rep. Rob Andrews by a 61%-34% margin. Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello is running a weak third with 5% of the vote. Lautenberg won huge margins in Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Passaic counties, carried Middlesex and Union comfortably, and held his own in several South Jersey counties.

In the GOP primary, former Rep. Dick Zimmer leads State Sen. Joe Pennacchio by a 46-40% margin. Ramapo College Professor Murray Sabrin has 14% of the vote.

Murray Sabrin’s campaign has never lacked self-confidence: in an e-mail earlier today, the Sabrin camp touts “internal and external polls” in predicting a 35%-34% victory over Dick Zimmer in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, with 31% for Joseph Pennacchio – if turnout stays below 175,000. If the turnout exceeds 200,000, the Sabrin campaign says, “Dr. Murray Sabrin will be running away with the victory and the percentages aren't necessary to discuss!”

Five of the six candidates for United States Senator in today’s primary election have run statewide before: Frank Lautenberg for the Senate in 1982, 1988, 1994, and 2002; Rob Andrews for Governor in the 1997 primary; Donald Cresitello in the 1982 U.S. Senate primary; Dick Zimmer for the Senate in 1996; and Murray Sabrin for Governor in 1997 (as the Libertarian candidate) and for GOP U.S. Senate nomination in 2000.

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dick Zimmer as he appeared in ABC television debate on Sunday.SOMERVILLE - State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (R-Morris) never convinced party leaders that he could be the darling of the GOP, most of whom instead backed former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer for U.S. Senate.

Now, with a full day remaining before Election Day, maverick conservative leader Steve Lonegan, a former mayor of Bogota and gubernatorial candidate, says he will vote for Pennacchio, while questioning Zimmer’s ability to generate energy among rank-and-file Republicans.

Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the leader of the conservative wing of the New Jersey Republican Party, is expected to endorse Joseph Pennacchio for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination on Monday.  Lonegan, a possible candidate for the 2009 Republican gubernatorial nomination and an unpaid PolitickerNJ.com columnist, has the ability to influence a large block of undecided voters in Tuesday’s primary election.

Maverick Murray Wins Debates Again

Even though he says he’s the front runner in Tuesday’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, Murray Sabrin is already thinking ahead to 2009.  One Sabrin friend, with knowledge of the campaign strategy, says that the Ramapo College professor is likely to run for Governor next year.  That throws an interesting wrench into the plans of former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, who is likely to count the Ron Paul/Libertarian wing of the New Jersey GOP as part of his natural base in a gubernatorial primary against U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie.   Sabrin has been complaining about Lonegan since last month, when the conservative leader pulled out of a campaign fundraiser and slapped his wrists for running an especially nasty Senate campaign.  

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