Monmouth University

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows Barack Obama is most popular than Hillary Clinton in New Jersey, even though Clinton beat Obama by ten percentage points in the state’s February 5 Democratic primary. Obama has a 58%-27% favorable rating, while Clinton is at 46%-43%. And by a 45%-38% margin, more New Jersey and Democrat-leaning independents say that would rather see Obama capture the Democratic presidential nomination.

U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez has a 41%-31% approval rating, while Gov. Jon Corzine is upside-down at 34%-52%.  Among Democrats, Menendez is at 51%-19%, while Corzine is at 45%-40%.  U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s approval rating is 48%-31%, and 51%-19% among Democrats.

If Frank Lautenberg wins re-election, he'll be 90 when his next term is over: Getty Images Photo
Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Rep. Ron Andrews by a 35%-20% margin in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, with Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello at 8%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today.  Lautenberg has 59%-19% approval rating among New Jersey Democrats, and a 48%-31% statewide approval.  Andrews has a 13%-15% approval rating among Democratic voters and just 44% of Democrats recognize his name.  But 61% of voters – and 56% of Democrats -- say its time for a new person in the Senate, and just 26% say the 84-year-old Lautenberg should be re-elected. 

Voters are split on whether Lautenberg is getting too old to be an effective Senator: 41% say he is, but 46% say he’s not.

Just 10% of New Jersey voters say they are “satisfied” with Governor Jon Corzine’s state budget, another 34% say that are “not particularly satisfied but can live with it,” and 54% are “decidedly dissatisfied,” according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 34%-55% approval rating and only 15% of New Jersey voters approve of his plan to raise tolls, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released early this morning.

“The poll shows that the public acknowledges the scope of the problem.  They just differ with Corzine on the solution,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “We saw public opinion of the governor take an immediate hit after his State of the State address.  It continued to decline as he went on the road to sell his toll hike plan, and has dropped even further since he unveiled his budget,” said Murray.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in each independent poll released over the last four days – but in many with slim margins:

Quinnipiac 48%-43%
Norcross 44%-38%
McClatchy/MSNBC 46%-39%
Monmouth/Gannett 50%-34%
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 43%-43%
Mason Dixon 46%-39%
SurveyUSA 51%-39%
Rasmussen 49%-37%

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll of likely Democratic primary voters has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 50%-34% in New Jersey’s February 5 Democratic presidential primary. Among likely GOP voters, John McCain has a 55%-23% lead over Mitt Romney, with 7% for Mike Huckabee and 3% for Ron Paul.

Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray says that pollster Joel Benenson has a history of "smearing" polls that have his candidate ahead and defended the methodology used in a Gannett New Jersey poll released yesterday that shows Tom Kean, Jr. leading Bob Menendez by six points.

"Benenson's critique of the latest Monmouth University poll on the Senate race is based on inaccurate assumptions about the poll's methodology, specifically the demographic composition of the final voter sample," Murray said in an e-mail to PoliticsNJ.com. "My poll releases always indicate the 'unweighted' number of respondents in each demographic group so that informed poll observers can make their own assessment of the margin of error within each group. I do worry that unsophisticated poll watchers may misinterpret these numbers, and this appears to be the case here."

"The weighted demographic distributions for party identification in Sunday's poll -- the distribution upon which the final horse race numbers are based -- is 33% Dem, 26% Rep, and 41% Ind, which is slightly more Democratic than Benenson claims it 'should' be," said Murray. "As to race, my voter sample is 12% African-American and 10% Hispanic, which is also higher than Benenson claims it should be."

"Unfortunately, Mr. Benenson has a history of smearing public polls when they don't benefit his client. Four years ago, he blasted the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll for numbers which showed Doug Forrester taking a commanding lead over his client, Bob Torricelli. Two days after that poll was released, Torricelli pulled out of the race. I doubt very much that this would have happened if the internal campaign poll numbers did not match the public poll," said Murray.

New Jersey voters appear more prepared than ever to accept and in fact embrace significant changes in the way government at every level is structured and operates--IF it significantly reduces their property taxes. Home rule…watch out!

The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll revealed some fascinating statistics on how New Jersey residents feel about home rule, consolidation of services and the cutting back of government services and programs. Get this: Seventy-nine percent of New Jersey residents said they would be somewhat willing to share municipal services like public works and maintenance with a neighboring town. Even emergency services like fire and police protection was on the table with New Jersey residents. Seven out of ten said they would be open to the idea and four in ten said they would be "very willing" to share police and fire services if in fact it produces a significant reduction in property taxes. Who knew?

I had always believed that police and fire services would be off limits for most citizens. If this poll is correct, there may be a narrow window of opportunity to act. When I say act, I don't simply mean encouraging or supporting mergers or consolidation of services. I'm talking about mandating that these things take place.

According to the Monmouth University poll Institute director Patrick Murray, "There is no better time than right now to do this. It appears that many residents will entertain the idea of forced consolidation because we are at a breaking point when it comes to property taxes."

Some additional numbers to consider--When it comes to merging school districts (New Jersey has 611 of them), which the educational establishment has been dead set against, the Monmouth University poll found that 32 percent of residents would be very willing to combine their school districts with a neighboring district and nearly 60 percent would be somewhat willing to do this. Think about what that means. For decades, politicians have argued that New Jersey residents were so in love with the idea of their neighborhood school as well as their own individual school district. That has produced way too many schools and an obscene number of school administrators, two big contributors to our skyrocketing property taxes. Again, if the Monmouth University poll is correct, many citizens are saying they will forego the luxury of having their own neighborhood school and their own school district if it means a significant reduction in property taxes. The educational establishment must be freaking out.

Time out. What exactly does a significant reduction in property taxes mean? According to the new poll, if it is not between 10 and 15 percent, you can forget it. It's got to make a real dent. It's got to make a difference in people's pockets or they won’t see it as worth it to be open minded about allowing home rule to be messed with.

The bottom line? Legislators meeting in Trenton for this so-called "special session" have no excuse any more. They can't say they are not able to take on home rule and force municipal mergers, consolidations and shared service agreements because the public won't allow it. If the legislature and the governor's office fail in this regard, they have no one to blame but themselves. That doesn't mean it is going to be easy and it doesn't mean that politicians aren't going to have to be leaders and public educators who go out and explain to their constituencies why this is necessary and what it is going to mean.

However, taking on home rule may not be as difficult as was originally thought. I guess that's one of the benefits of the property tax problem becoming so bad and out of control that many citizens are now saying "we're mad as hell and we are not going to take it anymore." Further, whatever it is going to take to get my property tax down, I'm willing to consider it. That's a big thing in New Jersey where for too long all of us, including elected officials, special interest groups, and citizens have become so entrenched and complacent that we've come to accept the status quo.

The time to act is now. The window of opportunity may be closing fast. We're all holding our breath to see what happens.