Monmouth University

A referendum for approval of $400 million bond issue to fund open space preservation water supply and flood plain protection, and farmland and historic preservation projects, leads 55%-32%, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.  Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan announced last week that he would lead a campaign to defeat the proposal.

The initiative leads 68%-19% among Democrats and 50%-37% among Independents; it trails 40%-46% among Republicans.  Voters who say they will support Gov. Jon Corzine favor the bond issue 70%-18%, while voters backing Republican Christopher Christie oppose the public question by a wide 34%-51% margin.  Daggett supporters also support the referendum, 63%-26%.

Among likely voters who are undecided in the race for Governor, 61% say they support the bond issue and 22% oppose it. 

The three top candidates for Lt. Governor are of no consequence in the 2009 gubernatorial election, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today. 

Democrat Loretta Weinberg, a State Senator from Bergen County and a seventeen-year veteran of the Legislature, is unknown to 80% of likely voters and has statewide favorables of 11%-9%.  She is as unknown to Democrats as she is to Independents and Republicans.

Republican Kim Guadagno, the Monmouth County Sheriff, has statewide favorables of 9%-4%, but 87% of likely voters don't know who she is.  94% of undecided voters don't recognize her name.

Independent Frank Esposito, a retired Kean University professor, is unrecognized by 90% of likely voters.  He has favorables of 6%-4%.  Nearly 90% of those voting for his running mate don't know him.

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Gov. Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie tied at 39%, with independent Christopher Daggett third at 14%.  Corzine leads in North Jersey, 40%-38%, Christie leads 42%-36% in Central Jersey, and the candidates are tied at 39% in South Jersey.  Daggett runs best in Central Jersey (16%), and is at 13% in the North and 14% in the South.

Christie is getting 81% of the Republicans and Corzine receives 76% of the Democrats.  Christie has 45% of the independent vote, with Daggett at 22% and Corzine running third with 21%.  Daggett gets 11% of the Democrats, and 8% of the Republicans.

Corzine is winning women, 43%-39%, while Christie leads 40%-34% among men.  White voters favor Christie, 45%-32%, while Corzine leads 66%-17% among Blacks and Hispanics.  Daggett is at 9% among Blacks and Hispanics, below his statewide averages.

The gubernatorial race is tied, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll.

The poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie each getting 39%, while independent Christopher Daggett gets 14%.

A Monmouth poll from the beginning of this month showed Christie ahead of Corzine by three points - 43% to 40% -- with Daggett taking 8% of the vote.

Today's poll found that once reluctant Democrats are sticking with Corzine, but there may be some base trouble for Christie with the Republican base.  Christie had 86% of Republicans' support in the poll released early in the month and has 81% of the base in todays.  Corzine, who in July had 71% of Democrats' support, now has 76%.

Christopher Christie has a three point lead in the race for Governor, leading Jon Corzine by a 43%-40% margin among likely voters with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday has Christie ahead by four points, 43%-39%, with 13% for Daggett.  A Monmouth poll last month had Christie up by eight points.

"New Jersey election followers should not be entirely surprised by this dynamic.  Democratic voters in New Jersey start paying attention later in the fall, causing the Republican candidate to lose ground," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February,"

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-51%, about the same as last month.

Christie's favorables have dropped from 48%-30% to 41%-39%.  But Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables and is now at 40%-49%.

Murray says that politically independent women are a key factor in the narrowing of the gubernatorial race, with Corzine leading by a "statistically insignificant" 38%-37%.  Christie had a 28% lead among independent women in Monmouth's August poll.

"The great mammogram debate of 2009 seems to be winning converts among independent women.  While these voters had been giving their soft support to Christie based on discontent with the Corzine economic record, they appear to have beaten a hasty retreat when threats to their health care access were raised," said Murray.

As New Jersey Democrats prepare for a visit from a popular President, a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by eight points, 45%-37%, and suggests that Barack Obama's visit "may do little to help" Corzine win a second term.

Christopher Daggett, a former state Environmental Protection Commissioner running as an independent, is at 4%.

Just 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their minds, and if leaners are taken out of the numbers, Christie's lead goes to 37%-33% -- just a four point advantage.

Corzine's greatest problem is his favorability rating: upside-down at 38%-47%.  A January Monmouth/Gannett poll had Corzine at 49%-38%.

"There is evidence that Corzine's ratings have taken a hit from the state budget process.  On the other hand, the Democrat's decision to air an attack ad may be putting a dent in the Christie armor," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Favorability ratings tend to be leading indicators of where an election is headed.  At this stage, these numbers can be more meaningful to the campaigns than the horse race itself."

Christie has a 43%-24% favorable rating, but Murray says "there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. "

"While the GOP nominee's favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points," said Murray.

Did you ever notice that polls seem to be subject to more journalistic skepticism than other numbers? Perhaps it's because there are so many polls available, and of such varying quality, that it's easy to compare and contrast differences.

On the other hand, nearly all other statistics - especially those from "official" sources - are accepted prima facie. For example, the media ran unquestioningly with a Social Security Administration story about the dramatic increase in baby boys being named Barack, although a simple journalistic inquiry would have quickly deflated that claim. Also, every press story about autism in New Jersey now includes the tag that New Jersey has the highest autism rate in the nation. However, this claim is based on a study that was done, not nationally, but in only 14 states - and even the comparability of those state results is suspect. (I'll be blogging more about this issue in a few weeks.)

Not that I'm arguing for less scrutiny of polls - far from it. My main concern is that while basic questions about all numbers go unasked before being reported to the public, it seems that only with polls do the media express doubt on the veracity of the numbers they themselves report, many times with banner headlines.

On NJN's Reporters Roundtable this past weekend, one panelist after another - including a reporter from Monmouth's own media partner - used the phrase, "if the polls are to be believed." They were discussing the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary and, specifically, Chris Christie's large lead over Steve Lonegan in polls released by Monmouth/Gannett and Quinnipiac last week.

Skepticism of election polls - as with any number provided for public consumption - is extremely healthy. Polls are designed to capture a snapshot of attitudes and behaviors at the time they are taken. And indeed, we tend to see a lot of consistency among reliable polls on "here-and-now" measures (e.g. a politician's job performance rating). However, polls are imperfect tools when asked to predict the future, such as an election outcome. Yet they work reasonably well and are the best tools we've got - so we use them.

Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, above, trails former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie by 18 points in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie holds an 18 point lead, 50%-32%, over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.  Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) is polling at 2%, with 16% still undecided.

Christie leads Lonegan 59%-25% among voters over age 60.  He has a 63%-26% lead in Central Jersey, a 49%-33% lead in North Jersey, a 45%-33% lead in South Jersey, and a 44%-35% lead in Northwestern New Jersey.  Christie has a 21 point lead in Morris County, and Lonegan leads by 10 points in Bergen County.

Lonegan leads 51%-36% among Republicans who describe themselves as "staunch conservatives," while Christie is ahead 58%-18% among moderates.   Lonegan is just slightly more likely than Christie to be seen as a "pro-life" candidate (42% to 33%).

"Chris Christie has solidified his front-runner status in this primary by increasing his appeal to the party's core conservative base.  He may not win this group outright, but he has made enough inroads to leave Steve Lonegan with little room to maneuver before June 2," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Winning in November trumps any specific issue positions for Republican primary voters.  For example, Mayor Lonegan's flat tax proposal has a good deal of support within the GOP electorate, but it doesn't seem to be enough to propel him to victory," said Murray.

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 40%-49% approval rating and trails Republican Christopher Christie by four percentage points, 39%-35%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.  Corzine has an upside-down favorable rating of 43%-47%.

Corzine leads another Republican, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, 37%-33%. 

The poll did not include a Republican primary ballot test.

“For a Democratic incumbent in a blue state like New Jersey, Jon Corzine is certainly not in an enviable position.” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “However, the Republican primary campaign has recently taken a nasty turn which may have stalled Chris Christie’s momentum and boosted Steve Lonegan’s profile.”

Voters give Gov. Jon Corzine a C- overall grade in a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 34%-51% approval rating and gets a grade of D+ on providing property tax relief, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today. 

Corzine gets a D on making the state more affordable and a D+ for controlling costs and cutting waste.  He gets a C- for bringing ethics and honesty to state government and a C for improving schools.  He also gets a C for his effort. 

"The public is looking for strong leadership in this volatile time, but they are unsure of Jon Corzine's hand on the tiller," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Independent voters, a critical group for the governor's re-election prospects, have become particularly doubtful over the past few months."