Monmouth University

Two independent polls released today on the race for United States Senator offer conflicting data on the question of Frank Lautenberg's ability, at age 84, to serve another six-year term: more than half the voters polled by Quinnipiac University say yes, while less more than two-thirds of Monmouth University/Gannett poll voters disagree.  Both polls have Lautenberg leading Republican Dick Zimmer by about the same margin.  Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth/Gannett poll, offers an explanation in his blog, which is worth the read.

Just 6% of New Jersey voters are closely following the race for U.S. Senate between Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer: Getty Images Photo
A new  Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP challenger Dick Zimmer 46%-36% -- the latest in a series of polls that show the four-term Democrat with a double digit lead.  The poll shows that just 45% of voters are showing interest in the Senate race, and just 6% are following it closely.  83% of New Jersey voters have a lot of interest in the race for President.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 8 points in a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll
Barack Obama leads John McCain in New Jersey by eight percentage points, 49%-41%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today.  

“McCain has made some gains in New Jersey, which should not really be a surprise to anyone who has followed election polling in this state,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling, but have had problems maintaining that momentum.  Only once in the past ten years – the 2000 U.S. Senate race – has the Republican candidate continued to narrow the gap through election day.  We’ll have to wait and see if this is really a trend.”

Incumbent Frank Lautenberg has an eight point lead over Republican Dick Zimmer, 45%-37%, among likely voters in his bid for re-election to a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

“While Lautenberg leads, many voters cannot commit to either candidate. This is usually bad news for the incumbent. However, Republicans are not showing their typical early support for the GOP nominee,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Couple this with the high number of voters entertaining a third party vote, and it’s clear that Dick Zimmer still has work to do with his own base before he can start courting independent voters.”

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see the results of the Quinnipiac poll that measures Gov. Corzine’s approval rating and the Senate race between Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer.

But state Senator/Essex County Republican Chairman Kevin O’Toole predicts that the poll on the Senate race will be close.

“Lautenberg has not been loved by the electorate. Look at his number. He has a 54% or 55% (approval) on his best day,” said O’Toole. “I think his best days are behind him.”

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows Barack Obama is most popular than Hillary Clinton in New Jersey, even though Clinton beat Obama by ten percentage points in the state’s February 5 Democratic primary. Obama has a 58%-27% favorable rating, while Clinton is at 46%-43%. And by a 45%-38% margin, more New Jersey and Democrat-leaning independents say that would rather see Obama capture the Democratic presidential nomination.

U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez has a 41%-31% approval rating, while Gov. Jon Corzine is upside-down at 34%-52%.  Among Democrats, Menendez is at 51%-19%, while Corzine is at 45%-40%.  U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s approval rating is 48%-31%, and 51%-19% among Democrats.

If Frank Lautenberg wins re-election, he'll be 90 when his next term is over: Getty Images Photo
Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Rep. Ron Andrews by a 35%-20% margin in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, with Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello at 8%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today.  Lautenberg has 59%-19% approval rating among New Jersey Democrats, and a 48%-31% statewide approval.  Andrews has a 13%-15% approval rating among Democratic voters and just 44% of Democrats recognize his name.  But 61% of voters – and 56% of Democrats -- say its time for a new person in the Senate, and just 26% say the 84-year-old Lautenberg should be re-elected. 

Voters are split on whether Lautenberg is getting too old to be an effective Senator: 41% say he is, but 46% say he’s not.

Just 10% of New Jersey voters say they are “satisfied” with Governor Jon Corzine’s state budget, another 34% say that are “not particularly satisfied but can live with it,” and 54% are “decidedly dissatisfied,” according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.