Michael Patrick Carroll

Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Township) at home

MORRIS TOWNSHIP -- Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Township) is not the type of candidate to scurry around his district trying to squeeze out possible last minute votes.  Instead, he is spending the day painting his living room and taking his kids to a firing range. 

"Today there's really nothing much I can do.  In Morris County all the votes that I think can be gotten out already have been gotten out," said Carroll, an attorney, from the home he also uses as his law office. 

Motivating Republican voters in Morris County - the home of their gubernatorial candidate, Chris Christie - is not hard this year.  And Carroll, who sits in a relatively safe Republican district, is not expected to be defeated by Democrats Rebekah Conroy and Wendy Wright. 

That is not to say that Carroll has never faced competition.  After his district-mate, Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham), decided not to seek reelection, Carroll found himself caught up in a three-way primary with Anthony Bucco, Jr. and Freeholder Doug Cabana.

One of the likely casualties of the battle for the Senate Presidency will be Assemblyman John McKeon (D-West Orange), who is Richard Codey's (D-Roseland) closest ally in the Legislature.  Watch for the new leadership to punish McKeon, perhaps by taking away his chairmanship of the Assembly Environment and Solid Waste Committee.  Democrats will argue that with the new Speaker coming from Essex, some of the more prestigious chairmanships might need to go elsewhere. 

Democrats most loyal to Gov. Jon Corzine are not big fans of McKeon, who took on the role of bashing Corzine during the few months in 2004 and 2005 when Codey and Corzine might have been competitors for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

McKeon, the Mayor of West Orange, has been widely viewed as the heir apparent to Codey's Senate seat.  With Codey apparently about to lose his post to Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford), the new leadership might be less than enthusiastic about seeing McKeon ascend to the Senate.  Sources suggest that Democrats might be open to moving West Orange (and perhaps Roseland, if Codey runs again) out of the district during the 2011 redistricting process.

Maybe Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.) will get his wish: the conservative Republican told PolitickerNJ.com last month that he would run against Codey if mapmakers created a competitive district that is at least half Morris County,

As part of a pitch for more competitive legislative districts after the 2011 census, Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.) says he'd be willing to challenge Dick Codey in 2011, in a fair fight district

Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Township) says he would run against Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland) in 2011 if legislative mapmakers drew a competitive district that included both of their towns.

"It would be an interesting question to see whether a Democrat who favors large government would appeal to Morris County voters more, or whether a Republican who favors small government would appeal to Essex County voters," said Carroll.

The idea of creating that district, of course, is far fetched.  But Carroll, who sits in a safely Republican district, says he hopes the next Legislative Apportionment Commission will create as many competitive legislative districts as possible - including his own. 

The chairmen of the state's two major political parties each appoint five members to the commission, while the Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court appoints the crucial 11th member.  That tie-breaking member will determine whether the state will continue to have a huge majority of safe districts for each party, or whether maps should be redrawn to create districts where both parties have a shot to win. 

As of today, there are only a few of the state's 40 districts that have relatively equal party registration, and Republicans and Democrats only share representation in three. 

"If Stu Rabner appointed me to be the guy who drew the districts, I would draw districts that both parties hated, because I would try to draw as many competitive districts as possible," said Carroll.  "I wouldn't take consideration of incumbency.  The only thing I would take consideration of is you don't want to divide up communities."

One of the perks of being the new GOP State Chairman: Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris Plains) gets to appoint the five Republican members of the Legislative Redistricting Commission, which will redraw districts for the 2011 elections.  That could help Webber move up to the State Senate.

The conventional wisdom is that State Sen. Anthony Bucco (R-Boonton) will retire in 2011 and that three Republicans - Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.), Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, and soon-to-be Assemblyman Anthony Bucco, Jr., the son of the Senator - will compete for his seat.

But with just some minor tinkering of the two Morris County-based legislative districts, Webber could find himself without substantial opposition for the Senate seat.  Morris Plains and Parsippany could move from the 26th to the 25th, and Morris Township, Morristown, Boonton Township and Boonton Borough could shift from the 25th to the 26th - a nearly even exchange of population, based on 2006 census estimates.

That would mean a 26th district ticket of State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (R-Montville), Carroll and Bucco, Jr.  In the 25th, it would be Webber for Senate, running with Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce (R-Parsippany) and an open seat. Murphy, who sought the 2005 Republican gubernatorial nomination, lives in Morris Township.  Shifting his hometown to District 26 could easily block his legislative ambitions.

An early prediction for the best primary of 2011: the Republican contest for State Senator in District 25, assuming that State Sen. Anthony Bucco (R-Boonton) retires.  Possible candidate include: his son, Anthony Bucco, Jr., who is heavily favored to win a State Assembly seat in November after defeating his brother-in-law, Morris County Freeholder Douglas Cabana on Tuesday; Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, who won a big plurality in Morris County when he ran for Governor four years ago, and who ran several thousand votes ahead of his running mates in the 2006 and 2009 Freeholder primaries; and Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.), who has consistently demonstrated considerable vote getting prowess without spending large sums on his campaigns.

Freeholder Doug Cabana on his way to vote.

BOONTON - On his way to vote in the 25th District Assembly Primary, Morris COunty Freeholder Doug Cabana walks down the front steps of his country law office here and waves off the accusation by his most bitter rival in this contest that Cabana couldn't resist going negative.

If no incumbents are defeated in their bids for re-election to the Legislature today, it will be the first time since 1995.  Most at risk: State Sen. Marcia Karrow (R-Raritan), who has served in the State Senate since January; seven-term Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.); newly-elected Assemblyman John DiMaio (R-Hackettstown), and freshmen Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville) and Cleopatra Tucker (D-Newark). 

Two years ago, three Essex County Democrats lost their Assembly seats: Wilfredo Caraballo (D-Newark), Oadline Truitt (D-Newark) and Craig Stanley (D-Irvington).  All three had lost the backing of the Essex Democratic organization.  Stanley, who lost that race by just 127 votes, is challenging Caputo and Tucker.

Tony Bucco, right, and Amy Bucco

BOONTON TWP. - The candidates' detractors fear a disengaged 25th District electorate will conclude the name "Tony Bucco" on today's ballot is a manuever by a veteran senator whose flair for populism has forced him into the Assembly race, or simply a case of mistaken identity.

Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.), left, and Tony Bucco, Jr.

Aside from the House of Atreus implications of Tony Bucco and Doug Cabana being brothers'-in-law and a family health scare, this three-men for two-seats 25th Legislative District contest hasn't devolved into the awful bloodbath of, for example, the 40th Legislative District race one county removed in this mountain country terrain.  

In the Morris County-based 25th district, Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Township), Freeholder Douglas Cabana, and Anthony Bucco, Jr., the son of a popular State Senator, are seeking the GOP nod for two Assembly seats.  Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) is giving up his seat to seek the Republican nomination for Governor.

Carroll, one of the most conservative members of the Legislature, was first elected in 1995.  Carroll and then-Assemblyman (now State Senator) Anthony Bucco defeated Merkt and then-Morris County Freeholder Christopher Christie in the GOP primary.  Carroll has never been much of a fundraiser and doesn't always enjoy establishment political support, but his base has carried him through in Republican primaries.  Carroll won by 1,923 votes when Cabana challenged him in the 2003 primary.