Kevin O'Toole

State Sen. Kevin O'Toole (R-Cedar Grove)

Insiders lay out several battlefields this year, and Republican or Democrat, it’s not two or three gulps of beer into a conversation before they spill the strategic terrain of the coming legislative contests.

The Democrats will put money into 1 to defend their incumbents there, and they will try to take down the Republican incumbents in 2. They’ll play in 8 again largely as a diversionary tactic, defend in 14 and – and this is big - heavily fortify 36, where the GOP last time came within 2,400 votes of stripping the Dems of a seat.

Representatives in both parties usually mention the last of these prospective showdowns as the most meaningful, a potential north Jersey version of the 12th District Karcher-Beck war in 2007, where both parties will likely lay down their heaviest barrage.

For the moment, Democrats feel they have some GOP civil war drama on their side, and are gleefully inclined to let the Republican body count mount at this fractious tri-county, multi-ego crossroads of Passaic, Bergen and Essex, before they get in and scrap in earnest to protect Assemblyman Fred Scalera (D-Nutley) and Assemblyman Gary Schaer (D-Passaic).

Better to let the other side give itself a good going over before taking casualties. That’s the attitude.

O'TOOLE AGAIN CALLS FOR BIPARTISAN ACTION ON ETHICS AND CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Nutley businessman Carmen Pio Costa today officially entered the race for a seat in the 36th legislative District, as he submitted a letter of intent asking for the support of the  three party chairmen of those counties with towns in the district: Kevin O’Toole, chairman of Essex; Scott Rumana of Passaic, and Bob Yudin of Bergen.

This is a second go for Pio Costa.  

In 2007, the Republican lost to Assemblyman Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Assemblyman Fred Scalera (D-Nutley), but came close enough – in his words – to take another crack at the Democrats in this cycle. 

“In spite being outspent 5-to-1 in 2007, I made substantial gains and came within 2,500 votes of victory,” Pio Costa wrote. “In light of this monumental accomplishment I am poised to cross the finish line and bring this district Republican representation.  The experiences of my campaign in 2007 have left me with the knowledge, understanding, and determination necessary to achieve victory in 2009."

Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., (R-Union), left; and state Sen. Kevin O'Toole, GOP chairman of Essex County and chair of the GOP chairs.

PRINCETON – It didn’t look like a scene of devastation – or of a coming battle.

In the swank lobby of the Hyatt Regency, water tumbled over rocks and splashed into a pool, where Koi fish gaped up at a swiftly striding figure heading toward a crew of young, BlackBerry-thumbing operatives at the far end of a long, carpeted corridor.

On his way to the Republican Party chairmen’s dinner, Chris Christie took several questions before an aide steered him toward his destination: a room in which 15 of the party’s 21 chair people and party leaders waited to assess the merits of the former U.S. Attorney and three other Republican candidates for governor a month in front of the first county convention in Union.

Like a lot of his colleagues, Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore personally thinks Christie gives his party the best shot at rebirth.

“I will be endorsing Chris Christie,” he said, against the nagging back story of former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, who for months has aggressively organized a grassroots effort in the likely event he’s unable to scale the walls of the establishment at a majority of the party’s nominating conventions.

Senator-elect Marcia Karrow, who was elected a few hours ago, will get an open seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, according to senior Senate Republican staffers.  Karrow, who serves on the same panel in the Assembly, is taking the Senate seat of Leonard Lance, who was elected to Congress.  The Appropriations Committee seat also belonged to Lance.  Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. has offered the ranking Minority slot on Appropriations to Anthony Bucco, who had been actively challenged for the slot by Kevin O’Toole.

Raymond Lesniak moved up to the Senate in 1983 after John Gregorio's criminal conviction.

After today's special election convention in District 23, a full one-quarter of the Senate will have entered the upper house by way of a special election: Raymond Lesniak (1983), Ronald Rice (1986), John Girgenti (1990), Robert Singer (1993), Thomas Kean, Jr. (2003), Paul Sarlo (2003), Loretta Weinberg (2005), Sandra Cunningham (2007), and James Beach (2009).  An eleventh Senator, Kevin O'Toole, initially served in the Senate in 2001 after winning a special election convention; he later returned to the Assembly and won a Senate seat in November 2007.

Lesniak replaced John Gregorio, who left the Senate following his criminal conviction.  Rice, Girgenti and Singer were elected following the deaths of Senators John Caufield, Frank Graves and John Dimon, respectively.  Kean took the seat of Richard Bagger, who resigned to concentrate on his career at Pfizer.  Sarlo became a Senator when the incumbent, Garry Furnari, was appointed to serve as a Superior Court Judge.  Weinberg won the seat of Byron Baer, who resigned for health reasons.  Cunningham replaced Joseph Doria, who resigned to become state Community Affairs Commissioner.  Beach, the most recent addition to the Senate won a special election convention after John Adler was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. must soon name a new ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee and has to pick between two candidates who are actively seeking the job: Anthony Bucco and Kevin O'Toole.  The 70-year-old Bucco, who has been a Senator since 1997, has seniority on his side, while O'Toole, 44, has political clout - he's the Essex County GOP Chairman and the Chairman of the Republican County Chairman's group - and the support of many of the younger Senators that entered the upper house with him one year ago.

In a tortured political terrain, Republican power players in the 36th  legislative district appear to be slowly coalescing around East Rutherford Councilman/businessman Joel Brizzi and Nutley businessman Carmen Pio Costa as their best chance ticket this year. 

It’s not yet set – in this geographically jagged district encompassing battle weary portions of Bergen, Passaic and Essex counties – nothing is ever really set, and there are candidate screening opportunities, after all; but there remain real factors immediately outside the district threatening party implosion. 

Sensing opportunity after coming close to victory two years ago, the party – and this goes all the way up to the top of the hierarchy - wants to stay focused here in the 36th despite the flailing fortunes of divided Republicans in the neighboring 40th.  

Toward that end, local leaders will sit down tonight at the Franklin Lakes Firehouse and try to re-establish in their sights the deeply fractured Bergen Democrats as their enemies and Assemblyman Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Assemblyman Fred Scalera (D-Nutley) as statehouse targets one and two.