Justin Murphy

Freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler has $426,587 cash on hand

With news that freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) has raised more money than any other incumbent in a potentially competitive 2010 race during the first quarter of 2009, it is worth noting that Republicans still don't have a candidate to challenge him in a district that they held from 1884 until 2008.  Adler beat Medford Mayor Christopher Myers 52%-48% for the seat of Republican James Saxton, who retired after twelve terms in Congress.

Adler raised $464,125 last quarter and has $426,587 cash on hand. Republicans think they can beat Adler next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee sent signals earlier this year that they want the candidate in place soon so that he or she can begin fundraising.  That's what Adler did in 2006, before Saxton had announced his intention to retire.  If the third district Republican candidate does not meet certain early fundraising goals, sources say that the NRCC might not become fully engaged in the race, according to one House Republican staffer familiar with NRCC operations.

So far, one candidate has said he expects to run: former Tabernacle Committeeman Justin Murphy, who surprised political observers last year when he won 25.2% of the vote in the Republican primary for Congress.  Murphy finished third, just 37 votes behind Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, who had the powerful organization line in Ocean.

Some pundits view State Sen. Diane Allen, with U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance, as the strongest potential Republican challenger to freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler in 2010.

New Jersey Republicans will face some pressure from the national GOP over the next few months to settle on their candidate to challenge freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) in 2010.  Adler won the seat of retiring twelve-term Republican Jim Saxton last year with 52% -- the first Democrat to win the seat since Thomas Ferrell ousted two-term Republican George Robeson with 50.1% in 1882.

Republicans think they can beat Adler next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee is sending signals that they want the candidate in place soon so that he or she can begin fundraising.  That's what Adler did in 2006, before Saxton had announced his intention to retire.  If the third district Republican candidate does not meet certain early fundraising goals, sources say that the NRCC might not become fully engaged in the race, according to one House Republican staffer familiar with NRCC operations.

Former Tabernacle Committeeman Justin Murphy said today that he’s probably going to run for the Republican nomination in the 3rd Congressional District again in 2010.

“We’ve got to build a nice network and base. It’s a long time. A year from now we’re going to get serious about it,” said Murphy, who hopes to get the opportunity to take on Democratic Congressman-elect John Adler next time. 

Murphy surprised many political observers with his strong performance in the Republican 3rd District Congressional primary in June, in which he ran as an anti-machine candidate.  The race was thought to be neck-and-neck between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, while Murphy was considered by many to be an “also ran.”  But when the votes were counted, Myers won with 12,694 to Kelly’s 6,531 and Murphy’s 6,494. 

In the contest between two powerful Republican machines, Burlington County GOP Chairman Bill Layton was the easy winner over Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore in the race for Jim Saxton's House seat in the third district. Layton's organization gave Chris Myers 74% of the vote in Burlington -- a margin of about 5,000 votes -- while Gilmore's team delivered Jack Kelly a margin of just 44%-26% in Ocean County over Myers, with Justin Murphy getting 30% in Ocean.

Third Congressional District Republican candidate Justin Murphy is considered the long shot by most observers in today’s primary, but he said in an interview that he feels "very good.”

Murphy stressed the importance of his base – an alternative group of supporters in Ocean County. He told PolitickerNJ.com that if he doesn’t do well in Ocean County, his campaign will “be recorded as a nice try.” He explained that his strategy is to get enough votes out of Ocean County specifically to get the third he believes he will need to win. According to Murphy, the idea is to balance the votes between the Chris Myers and Jack Kelly campaigns, which he describes as “one machine versus another machine.”

Following the theme of the evening, he was uncertain what the low voter turnout meant. However, Murphy said that there was “such a mud festival between the two machine candidates” that “people got turned off.”

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

Either Justin Murphy thinks the name Bret Schundler is magic, or he’s got nothing else: the former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor announced that the former Mayor of Jersey City and 2001 gubernatorial candidate endorsed his bid for the GOP nomination for Congress in the third district – for the second time.  Schundler first endorsed Murphy on January 28.

Third District Republican Congressional candidate Justin Michael Murphy says Ocean County voters “should know that a vote for Jack Kelly or Chris Myers is a vote to validate the corrupt power of County Bosses in both Burlington and Ocean Counties.”

Major Headliners For GOP Congressional Candidate