John McCain

A new Strategic Vision poll released today is the second survey in four days to show a tightening race for United States Senator, with Democrat Frank Lautenberg leading Republican Dick Zimmer by 8 percentage points, 49%-41%.  Marist College was at 48%-41% on Friday evening.  

Strategic Vision has Barack Obama leading John McCain 53%-38%, and Governor Jon Corzine's approval rating upside-down at 38%-55%.

Marist College released a poll Friday evening that U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg has a narrow seven point, 48%-41%, lead among likely voters over Republican Dick Zimmer.  Among all voters, Lautenberg is ahead 47%-37%.  Recent independent polls has Lautenberg way out in front in his bid for a fifth term: he was up 22 points in a Quinnipiac poll, and ahead 16 points in a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.

The same poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain 56%-39% in New Jersey among likely voters (53%-36% among all voters).

A veteran Republican operative says U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) is a "nut"

Political operatives take note: if you’re going to call a member of your own party a “nut,” you might not want to say it to the daughter of his opponent.

At a rally for U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in Houston on Saturday, Cornyn Campaign Manager Rob Jesmer probably did not notice the digital recorder when he struck up a conversation with Democratic rival Rick Noriega’s press secretary, Holly Shulman.

Jesmer -- who was presidential candidate John McCain’s political director for two months before quitting in July of last year, when his campaign seemed to be flailing -- asked Shulman about her father Dennis’s chances in New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District, where he’s challenging U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage).

“Your dad’s running for Congress, right? Is he going to win?” Jesmer asked.

In Monmouth County, every town comes intriguingly into play on some level, several more critically than others.

Republicans have owned the Freeholder Board for over 20 years, but in the last two elections Democrats picked up two seats to bring them to within one of county control.

A profusion of newly registered Democratic voters have boosted the party’s confidence heading into Nov. 4th, and now Democrats Amy Mallet and Glenn Mason are ready for that 11th hour jolt of cash from the Democratic State Committee.

State Party Chairman Joseph Cryan wants to win here.

He wants it more than he would like to pick up additional warm bodies in the Assembly next year, where his party’s already built a comfortable majority.

A victory by either Mallet or Mason would make a Democratic Party statement.  But neither is a name candidate running against incumbent Freeholder Director Lillian Burry and auto dealer vice president John Curley, an intensely focused campaigner who served as a Red Bank Councilman and has close political connections to state Sen. Jennifer Beck (R-Monmouth).

Former Gov. Tom Kean with John McCain and Joe Lieberman in Hamilton last March: Getty Images Photo
With two polls released this morning showing Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain in the Garden State by between 17 and 23 points, former Gov. Tom Kean acknowledged that winning this state is a long-shot, and that Vice-Presidential Sarah Palin hasn't helped.

"I think one of the problems is there hasn't been much of a campaign in New Jersey, if any. That's always a problem. It's uphill for any Republican to win in New Jersey, and the ones who have won are those who have spent a great deal of time here," he told PolitickerNJ.com from California in a phone interview.

Kean, who governed as a moderate in the 1980s and developed cross-party appeal, was one of McCain's early New Jersey backers. He endorsed him late last year, when most of the GOP establishment - including his son, Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. -- was on board with Rudy Giuliani. McCain, Kean said, was the most helpful Senator when he chaired the 9/11 commission - the creation of which McCain often cites as a major policy difference between himself and President Bush.

Kean did accompany McCain on the three public appearances he made in New Jersey this year. While he'd like to see more of McCain here, he understands that, with no chance of winning in New York, it wouldn't make sense to spend his limited campaign cash in that extremely expensive media market to make a play for North Jersey voters.

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied 47%-47% in northwestern New Jersey, according to the new Quinnipiac University poll that looked at voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties. In an October 19, 2004 Quinnipiac poll, George W. Bush led John Kerry in this same region by a 61%-28% margin. And in an October 12, 2006 Quinnipiac poll of the race for United States Senator, northwestern New Jersey voters favored Tom Kean, Jr. over Bob Menendez by a 66%-32% margin.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, the Republican, are in a statistical dead heat in these five Republican counties, with Lautenberg leading 47%-45.

Despite major endorsements from prominent Democrats like former New Jersey Secretary of State Joan Haberle and her daughter, Dawn, and support from Alfredo Gutierrez, the owner of Xtra Supermarket in Newark, John McCain has fallen far behind Barack Obama in the race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes.  A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning has Obama with a 23-point lead, 59%-36%, while a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows similar numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 38%.

Frank Lautenberg has a 22-point lead in his bid for re-election to a fifth term in the U.S. Senate: Getty Images Photo
New Jersey Democrats are looking at a top of the ticket landslide: a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Democrat Barack Obama with a 59%-36% lead over Republican John McCain, and Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg with a 22-point lead -- 55%-33% -- over Republican Dick Zimmer, a former Congressman.

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll also released this morning shows similar numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 38%.

“The nation’s economic crisis has turned New Jersey dark blue, virtually assuring a Democratic sweep with Sen. Barack Obama carrying the state and Sen. Frank Lautenberg winning re-election,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Barring a major development in world affairs, or in the fortunes of Sen. John McCain and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, Nov. 4 is shaping up as a big night for New Jersey Democrats.”

Barack Obama is likely to win New Jersey's 15 electoral votes, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll: Getty Images Photo
Barack Obama has a 17-point lead over John McCain in New Jersey, 55%-38% among likely voters, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released this morning.  Obama had an 8-point lead in the same poll last month.

“We have reached the tipping point in this race, with nearly half of the state’s voters saying they are very sure they will vote for Obama,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, who few Obama voters daid hey were willing to change their minds before Election Day. “At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red.”

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on the race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes on Tuesday morning.  On September 16, Quinnipiac showed a statistical dead heat: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 45%.