John McCain

Essex County Corzine Campaign Coordinator Leroy Jones, left, and Assemblyman Albert Coutinho (D-Newark) Thursday in the East Ward.

NEWARK - After months of mostly unobservable underground movements and five days in front of President Barack Obama's appearance at the Rock, there is evidence of effort on behalf of Gov. Jon Corzine in a city the governor needs to win amply in order to land another four years in office.
 
Of course, Democrats are leaning heavily on Corzine-Obama linkage.

In 2005, Corzine defeated Republican challenger Doug Forrester in Newark, 39,573 to 3,336, while carrying Essex County overall, 131,312 to 45,789 on his way to statewide victory.
 
By comparison, Obama punished Republican Sen. John McCain in Newark by a vote of 77,112 to 5,957 last year, as he carried Essex County, 240,127 to 73,975, recording a larger number of votes here than in any other county on his way to winning New Jersey by a 15% margin. 

"Certainly for Obama, people had a clear and distinguishable reason for coming out," says Essex County Democratic Party chairman Phil Thigpen. "Now, it's not as visible when you talk about quality of education or property taxes and you're a renter, for example. So we've got to jazz it up."

President Barack Obama, who will campaign for Gov. Jon Corzine in Camden and Newark on Sunday, has a split 47%-45% approval rating in New Jersey, according to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina-based firm that works primarily for Democrats.

Essex and Camden counties look to be the right place for Obama to tout Corzine's re-election.  The poll shows Corzine with 67% of the Black vote and 53% of the Latino vote; Democrats in New Jersey typically receive substantially higher numbers from these two critical components of their base vote.  And Corzine is only getting 66% of New Jerseyans who say they voted for Obama last year; 16% are going to Christopher Daggett, and 12% to Christopher Christie.  (Christie is getting 77% of John McCain's votes, with 9% to Daggett and 7% to Corzine.)

Former Vice President Al Gore will be in New Jersey today, lending a hand to Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election by addressing an annual meeting of Democrats in Atlantic City.  Gore becomes the second of the eight living Democratic nominees for President to stump for Corzine; Barack Obama was in the state last July.  Democrats expect two others to be in New Jersey over the next few weeks: former President Bill Clinton, and U.S. Sen. John Kerry.  There are no plans for any of the other four onetime Democratic standard bearers to campaign for Corzine: George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis.

There are four living Republican presidential candidates.  It's almost certain that former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush will not campaigning for GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie.  There is no word if Bob Dole or John McCain will be visiting New Jersey before November.

Gore also puts in checkmark under the living former Vice Presidents column. It seems certain that Christie won't ask Dick Cheney to come to New Jersey this fall - the heavy traffic on Route 1 notwithstanding. There are no apparent invitations for Mondale or Dan Quayle to stump for Corzine or Christie, respectively.

Vice President Joseph Biden appeared at a Corzine rally on the night of the Democratic primary.

Of the other five living former VP candidates, three almost certainly will not be invited: Sarah Palin, John Edwards, and Joseph Lieberman.  Sargent Shriver has health issues and is no longer making public appearances. That leaves Geraldine Ferraro, and there is a decent chance the Corzine campaign won't want her.

Christopher Christie, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 50%-40% in today's Quinnipiac University poll, is the first Republican in twelve years to lead in a statewide race in June, and is likely the first Republican since Thomas Kean, Sr. in 1985 to be at 50% just after the primary election.

Past Quinnipiac University polls:

Gov. Jon Corzine's consideration of a Republican running mate, New Jersey Chamber of Commerce President Joan Verplanck, is an idea that has worked for two other Democratic Governors in recent years.  In Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius picked Republicans to run with her in 2002 (John Moore, a former Kansas Chamber of Commerce Chairman and Cessna executive) and 2006 (Mark Parkinson, a former legislator and GOP State Chairman who became Governor when Sebelius resigned in April.)  Brian Schweitzer, the Democratic Governor of Montana, picked Republican State Sen. John Bohlinger as his running mate in 2004; they were re-elected last year. 

Mitt Romney's decision to pick a horse in the New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary likely accomplishes two things: it boosts former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie's standing among conservatives, and it strengthens Romney's chances of picking up organizational and fundraising support in New Jersey if he seeks the 2012 GOP nomination for President.

Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan, who has been the de facto leader of the conservative wing of the New Jersey GOP for the last six years, by 23 percentage points, according to a poll released last week by Quinnipiac University.  Christie has appealed to conservative Republican primary voters through endorsements from other conservatives, including U.S. Rep. Christopher Smith (R-Hamilton), whose seal of approval among pro-life voters is important.

Rick Wright's home in Burlington County.

New Jersey Republicans can rest easy, as Assembly Republican Executive Director Rick Wright did have a John McCain sign on his front lawn this autumn after all - even if the yard space was shared with a Barack Obama sign.

The hot-button question of the contents of Wright's lawn was injected into state politics this weekend when gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan, appearing on NJN's "On the Record" with host Michael Aron, responded to Wright's defense of Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce (R-Parsippany) by raising the issue.

"Mike, Mike, you want to ask Rick Wright a question for me?" Lonegan said to Aron.  "Ask him whose sign he had for president on his front lawn this last election.  That will tell you something about the Republican Party in New Jersey... From what I understand, and the photos I see, it was Barack Obama's." 

The Obama sign, Wright said, was put there by his Democratic wife, Susan (he prefers that her last name not be used).  The two met when she worked across the hall from him at the Assembly Democrats' office, and she now works as a Deputy Attorney General. 

"My feeling is that if Steve Lonegan's campaign is built on spying on my house and not worrying about property taxes and spending, that's the reason why Steve Lonegan is not doing so well," Wright said.  "What Lonegan failed to mention was that when they took the picture, there was a McCain sign in the front lawn."

Gov. Jon Corzine discusses his budget with Eatontown resident Andrew Bauer on Tuesday afternoon.

EATONTOWN – Sarah Palin’s prime time debate shout-out to Joe Six Packs likely turned the heads of more than several occupants on bar stools here in Eatontown, a town whose classic blue collar image was finally tempered somewhat nearly 50 years ago when the Monmouth Mall landed in the midst of farmlands and roadside bars and turned a generation of tool and die Jack Sprats into mall rats.

Set midway between the 11th Legislative District’s economic extremes – Rumson on the hill and Long Branch at the shoreline – Eatontown leans Democrat in a district that more than leans Republican and – in a gut check moment - went for McCain last year over Obama, a fact noted with some pride by state Sen. Sean Kean (R-Wall), who watched Gov. Jon Corzine come here today with no small amount of skepticism.

Looking to shop his budget proposal in New Jersey’s version of the heartland, Corzine trotted up the steps of Frank and Marti Kijac’s house on his way in to head up a living room discussion of his $29.8 billion working document, which Republicans believe crashes in especially punishing fashion on the middle class.  

I first met Scott Garrett when I began my service as Senior Policy Advisor on the Assembly Republican Staff in June, 1992 while he was serving in his second term as an Assemblyman.  Over the past 17 years, both in his capacity as an Assemblyman and as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, I have had the good fortune to work with Scott on numerous issues, and my respect for his intellect, character, ethics, integrity, and courage has grown.

Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Sayreville), left, and Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce (R-Parisipanny-Troy Hills), come into each other's wheel house on the chamber train.

NEW BRUNSWICK - Intent on reviving the Reagan legacy during last year’s presidential election, Republicans established their campaign base camp in the Woodbridge area and jumped on the telephones in search of suburban white voters who might identify with the patriotic and moderate elements of U.S. Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) candidacy.

If President Barack Obama stumbled in his bid, the GOP wanted to be in a position to rev up the diner and bowling pin and VFW Hall crowds, but it never happened.

With Obama in cruise control and the game changed when McCain moved rightward with his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, Middlesex County finally went heavily for the Illinois senator: 60 to 38.5% - a margin not as wide as Essex (76 to 23%); or Hudson (73 to 26%), and right around the percentages registered by neighboring Union County (64 to 35%).