John Kerry

Watch for New Jersey Democrats to consider legislation that will change the way the state fills vacancies in the United States Senate.  Now that Democrats have lost the governorship, some party leaders are concerned that Republican Gov.-elect Christopher Christie would appoint a U.S. Senator if Democrat Frank Lautenberg, who turns 86 in January, leaves office without finishing the final four years of his term.  Some Democratic leaders have already discussed a plan to take the appointment away from the governor and forcing a quick special election.  Jon Corzine could sign that bill before he leaves office in January.

Five years ago, when there was a good chance that Democrat John Kerry might get elected president, the Democratic-controlled Massachusetts Legislature changed the law so that Republican Gov. Mitt Romney could not appoint Kerry's successor.

The two major party candidates for Lt. Governor will campaign at Bergenfield senior centers tomorrow, five days after a jury found former Bergen County Democratic Chairman Joseph Ferriero guilty of depriving Bergenfield residents of the "honest services" of their borough attorney.   State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), who represents Bergenfield in the State Senate, will be there in the morning; Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno, the GOP candidate, will be there at 2PM. 

Former Vice President Al Gore will be in New Jersey today, lending a hand to Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election by addressing an annual meeting of Democrats in Atlantic City.  Gore becomes the second of the eight living Democratic nominees for President to stump for Corzine; Barack Obama was in the state last July.  Democrats expect two others to be in New Jersey over the next few weeks: former President Bill Clinton, and U.S. Sen. John Kerry.  There are no plans for any of the other four onetime Democratic standard bearers to campaign for Corzine: George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis.

There are four living Republican presidential candidates.  It's almost certain that former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush will not campaigning for GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie.  There is no word if Bob Dole or John McCain will be visiting New Jersey before November.

Gore also puts in checkmark under the living former Vice Presidents column. It seems certain that Christie won't ask Dick Cheney to come to New Jersey this fall - the heavy traffic on Route 1 notwithstanding. There are no apparent invitations for Mondale or Dan Quayle to stump for Corzine or Christie, respectively.

Vice President Joseph Biden appeared at a Corzine rally on the night of the Democratic primary.

Of the other five living former VP candidates, three almost certainly will not be invited: Sarah Palin, John Edwards, and Joseph Lieberman.  Sargent Shriver has health issues and is no longer making public appearances. That leaves Geraldine Ferraro, and there is a decent chance the Corzine campaign won't want her.

U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) turns 86 in January. His term is up four years after that.

The Democratic-controlled Massachusetts Legislature, thinking John Kerry might win the presidency in 2004, changed state law to take away the power of the governor to fill U.S. Senate vacancies by appointment.  They didn't want the Republican governor, Mitt Romney, replacing Kerry in the Senate with a Republican.  Now that Democrat Deval Patrick is governor, there's a move to reinstate the power so that a Democrat can fill the late Ted Kennedy's seat on an interim basis.

New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the United States Senate since Clifford Case won his fourth term in 1972.  But some Democrats, seeing GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie enter September with a ten point lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, have another worry: a GOP governor could send a Republican to the U.S. Senate, if a vacancy were to occur.

Frank Lautenberg will turn 86 in January and still has four years left on his term.  No punches should be pulled here: there has been no shortage of Democrats posturing for a Senate seat in the event that Lautenberg does not finish his term, and Christie's healthy poll numbers has forced the realization that the next U.S. Senator from New Jersey could be a Republican.

If Christie wins, Democrats might need to replicate the Massachusetts law as an insurance policy on their Senate seat -- and get Corzine to sign it before he leaves office in January.   Democrats will especially want to prevent New Jersey's seat from flipping while Robert Menendez is the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman.

Just last week, a Star-Ledger editorial endorsed a proposal by a Wisconsin Senator to eliminate all Senate appointments and fill vacancies only by special election. According to the editorial, 20% of American voters may be represented by unelected U.S. Senators in the near future.

Christopher Christie, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 50%-40% in today's Quinnipiac University poll, is the first Republican in twelve years to lead in a statewide race in June, and is likely the first Republican since Thomas Kean, Sr. in 1985 to be at 50% just after the primary election.

Past Quinnipiac University polls:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie might have a sizeable lead over Gov. Jon Corzine in three recent independent polls (and Steve Lonegan leads Corzine in one of them) but that doesn't mean the Washington insider community believes he will win.  Pundits outside of New Jersey are accustomed to be teased about New Jersey, where early polling is often more favorable toward Republicans than Election Day.  On October 27, 2004, there was a poll showing George W. Bush and John Kerry in a dead heat in New Jersey, and there was one on September 28, 2005 showing Douglas Forrester within four points of Corzine. And on September 20, 2006, Thomas Kean, Jr. led Robert Menendez 48%-45%.

"Considering that Corzine hasn't even started his re-election campaign and will spend millions of dollars of his own money when he finally does, and that Republicans haven't won statewide in New Jersey in a dozen years, Republicans may want to keep that champagne on ice before they start putting this contest into the win column," Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, told CNN yesterday.

New Jersey might be the bluest state in the nation.  The last time a Republican statewide candidate won New Jersey was in 1997.  Since then, 49 other states have elected a Republican to a statewide office. But also consider this: the last time New Jersey re-elected a Democratic governor was in 32 years ago.  Since 1977, 45 other states have re-elected a Democratic Governor.  Only New Jersey, South Dakota and Texas have not re-elected a Democratic governor since Brendan Byrne won his second term. (South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974 -- the longest continuous streak in the nation.)

Patti Nelson McGuire, who spent three years as Gov. Jon Corzine's Deputy Chief of Staff, has joined Princeton Public Affairs Group, one of the state's largest lobbying firms.

"We are excited to have Patti join our dedicated and successful government and public affairs team," said Dale Florio, a partner at PPAG and the Somerset County GOP Chairman.  "Her role at our firm will help strengthen our reach in the New Jersey political arena."

State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May) is not on the ballot this year, giving Republicans hope that they can pickup two Assembly seats in the 1st district.

The best shot for the Republicans to pick up a State Assembly seat is in the first district, where incumbents Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam will need to defend their seats without the benefit of State Sen. Jeff Van Drew at the top of the ticket.  They won in 2007 as the popular Van Drew was ousting GOP incumbent Nicholas Asselta by twelve points.  Albano, swept into office as Van Drew's running mate in 2005, won comfortably; Milam beat Republican Michael Donohue by 2,020 votes.  This is the first time in history that Cape May County is represented by all Democratic legislators.

Milam won't be helped by his admission that he parked in a handicapped spot last October.  The freshman Assemblyman initially sought a trial, alleging that the spot was not clearly marked.  This is not the most egregious offense for a New Jersey legislator in recent years, but it could make a decent mailer and cable TV ad.  Donohue is reportedly interested in running again.

District 1 may be among the most politically competitive in the state, although it has clearly trended Democratic over the last three years.  George W. Bush carried the district over John Kerry by 4,792 votes, and Barack Obama beat John McCain by 5,095.  Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester by 2,984 in the 2005 gubernatorial race, and Tom Kean, Jr. defeated Robert Menendez for U.S. Senate in 2006 by 3,439.  All three of those races were about 53%-47%.

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied 47%-47% in northwestern New Jersey, according to the new Quinnipiac University poll that looked at voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties. In an October 19, 2004 Quinnipiac poll, George W. Bush led John Kerry in this same region by a 61%-28% margin. And in an October 12, 2006 Quinnipiac poll of the race for United States Senator, northwestern New Jersey voters favored Tom Kean, Jr. over Bob Menendez by a 66%-32% margin.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, the Republican, are in a statistical dead heat in these five Republican counties, with Lautenberg leading 47%-45.

A quick look at several old New Jersey presidential polls taken (mostly) in September: