Jim McGreevey

The deal cut last week to make Bonnie Watson Coleman the Assembly Majority Leader over Wilfredo Caraballo increases the likelihood that Governor-elect Jon Corzine will have problems with Hispanic leaders if he does not appoint Robert Menendez to the United States Senate. There is a perception among Hispanic activists that Corzine has promised the seat to Menendez, and Corzine -- who has political ambitions beyond Drumthwacket, is being lobbied by Latinos with national clout to appoint the seven-term Congressman. Menendez publicly split with then-Governor James E. McGreevey over the appointment of Zulima Farber to the New Jersey Supreme Court, and one Democratic insider says Hispanic voters could be in play in the '06 general election if they feel Menendez was treated poorly.

Joseph Pennacchio, a conservative State Assemblyman from Morris County, said today that he will not seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2006. Instead, Pennacchio will run for an open State Senate seat in the 26th district and plans to endorse Thomas Kean, Jr. for the U.S. Senate. Pennacchio had been exploring a Senate bid against Jon Corzine before James E. McGreevey resigned as Governor in August 2004.

From Rich Zeoli, the chairman of the Sussex County GOP:
"I am hearing reports that turnout is high all across the county and we are feeling incredibly confident. But just to be certain, we have phone banks running all the way up until the polls close tonight. Since over 65 percent of our residents commute out of county, we expect a huge Republican surge after rush hour."

Here are the Sussex results from '01; this was Schundler's second-strongest county:
Bret Schundler (R) 23,478
Jim McGreevey (D) 14,641

Just heard from another Dem. insider who says the talk of lighter-than-expected turnout in Camden County is real. Remember, this is a county that gave Jim McGreevey a nearly 40,000-vote plurality four years ago.

A Democratic source says Camden County Democrats are expecting Jon Corzine will carry their county by 25,000-30,000 votes. In 2001, Jim McGreevey won Camden County by 38,106 votes-- 78,169 to 40,163. But another South Jersey Democrat advises: "I will bet you that he wins by the same margin McGreevey beat Schundler by."

Essex County is the King of Democratic Counties. Just look at the '01 results, when it accounted for 40 percent of Jim McGreevey's statewide plurality:

Jim McGreevey (D) 129,406
Bret Schundler (R) 48,540

There's been some concern among Democrats that Newark Mayor Sharpe James may cause trouble for Corzine, although there are signs the two men have patched things up. Phil Alagia, the chief of staff to County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, sent the following dispatch from the field:

"Things are going great in Essex. We have nearly 2500 Corzine supporters on the street focusing on getting the Democratic vote out. Turnout seems to be strong. Very impressed from all the support we are getting from labor. Every part of the Democratic Party in Essex County has come to support Joe D. and (county Democratic chairman) Phil Thigpen to get the vote out for Jon Corzine."

Obviously, Hudson County is a huge part of Jon Corzine's formula for victory, just like it is for any Democrat who runs statewide. Consider the '01 results from Hudson:

Jim McGreevey (D) 85,074
Bret Schundler (R) 37,440

If you're keeping score at home, that's a 47,634-vote plurality for McGreevey-- almost 1/4 of his entire statewide plurality. And don't forget, Schundler was Jersey City's mayor-- Hudson was his turf.

The Corzine campaign's goal today is a 60,000-vote plurality out of Hudson (that may be like asking $1 million for a house in order to get the $750,000 you really want), which makes an e-mail I just received from a Democrat who checked out the Corzine operation in Hoboken this morning rather interesting:

"The surprising thing was the tension between the 'neutral' poll workers and the Corzine challenger. Usually these folks are all one big happy family. Another fact is that in contrast to prior elections there have been virtually no signs in Hoboken this election. I could be wrong, but my guess is that Hoboken will be A LOT closer than anyone expects."

This is purely anecdotal, but it makes you wonder....

There is a possible third candidate in the already contested race for the Democratic congressional nomination in the fifth district: Jim Morrison, who gained some fame four years ago as a contestant in the TV reality show The Mole, is exploring a bid to take on two-term Republican Congressman Scott Garrett. Morrison, an openly gay attorney and helicopter pilot from Sussex County, won a write-in campaign for the Democratic State Senate nomination in 2003. Charles Cart, then the Sussex Democratic Chairman (now under indictment) called on him to withdraw from the race. Garrett's 2004 opponent, Dorothea Anne Wolfe, and Paul Aronoshn, who was Governor James E. McGreevey's press secretary, are actively seeking the nomination. Another possible candidate, Alpha Mayor Harry Zikas, pulled out of the race in September.

Corzine and McGreevey
"He'll Say and Do Anything to Get Elected"

Gubernatorial nominee Doug Forrester held a press conference in Woodbridge, home of disgraced former governor Jim McGreevey.

With six days remaining in the 2005 election, the race for Governor is headed toward the Likely Democratic column -- although it's not there just yet. A new Quinnipiac University poll has Jon Corzine leading Doug Forrester by 12 points (although most other independent polls have that number about five points less); the bad news for Republicans is that New Jersey voters now say Corzine is the better candidate on Forrester's two top issues: property taxes and ethics reform. Speculation among political insiders that there was something out there that could hurt Corzine's chances has not materialized -- the best the GOP has right now are some gossip column quotes from a New York newspaper and a pair of tough lines from the Senator's ex-wife in today's New York Times -- hardly enough to sink the Democratic campaign. There is some disagreement within the Forrester campaign over their closing message: they have a commercial featuring Forrester's daughter, but the candidate is resisting a push from some of his consultants to use the spot. Corzine is winning the battle of the millionaires -- last week he put another $6 million into his campaign, while Forrester wrote a $2.5 million check. Forrester seems to have offended some conservative activists over the last two weeks, although there was no evidence of that in today's poll. There is a general assumption among insiders of both parties that the Democrats have a considerable edge on election day; their GOTV operation is more sophisticated -- they have significantly more paid staff and volunteers, and more money for earmarked for the turnout operation.

Four years ago, a Quinnipiac poll released seven days before the election had James E. McGreevey leading Bret Schundler by seventeen percentage points, 52%-35%. The day before the election, Quinnipiac had a final poll showing McGreevey ahead 48%-39%. McGreevey won the election by fourteen points, 56%-42%.

Over the last seven days, three independent polls -- Quinnipiac, The Record, and WNBC/Marist -- had Corzine at the 50% mark, but the reality is Corzine never really needs to get to 50% to win the election; the eight independent candidates, including two that have qualified for matching funds and participated in the gubernatorial debate, will probably get one or two percent of the vote -- as they historically do in New Jersey.

The Battle for New Jersey '05