Jeff Bell

New Jersey Republicans are likely to nominate a pro-life candidate for Governor today - only the sixth abortion opponent to win a statewide GOP primary since the U.S. Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade decision in 1973.  Pro-Choice Republicans have won fourteen statewide Republican primaries.

The death of Jack Kemp leaves six living former unsuccessful major party nominees for Vice President: Sargent Shriver (1972), Bob Dole (1976), Geraldine Ferraro (1984), Joe Lieberman (2000), John Edwards (2004) and Sarah Palin (2008).  There are also five living former Vice Presidents.  Of the six, three -- Dole, Lieberman and Edwards -- carried New Jersey.

In New Jersey, there are eleven living former unsuccessful major party candidates for United States Senator: Warren Wilentz (1966), David Norcross (1976), Jeff Bell (1978), Mary Mochary (1984), Peter Dawkins (1988), Christine Todd Whitman (1990), Chuck Haytaian (1994), Dick Zimmer (1996 and 2008), Bob Franks (2000), Douglas Forrester (2002) and Tom Kean, Jr. (2006).

New Jersey also has five living unsuccessful major party candidates for Governor: Raymond Bateman (1977), Peter Shapiro (1985), Jim Courter (1989), Bret Schundler (2001), and Douglas Forrester (2005).  Two other losing gubernatorial candidates, Jim Florio (1981 and 1993) and James E. McGreevey (1997) were subsequently elected Governor.

After working in Jeff Bell’s campaign during the summer of 1978 (as well as interning with the state GOP), I importuned Kemp’s folks and secured an internship in DC for the Fall. Every Thursday and Friday, off to DC on the rickety old local, to room 2244 (or was it 4422?) RHOB. Kemp was something of an icon among College Republicans; he attended numerous meetings throughout the DC area and always tarried after speaking to mingle with awestruck teens. He brought passion and enthusiasm to politics, as well as a willingness to chat on policy with any 19 year-old who wished to engage.

The office, of course, featured many reminders of his previous vocation, including Pat Summerall’s daughter as his receptionist. One picture in particular stood out: a defensive lineman about the size of a truck towering over, and apparently about to squish, a cringing, diminutive QB.

Interns, generally, enjoyed little face time with The Boss, but toward the end of my brief tenure, the student union at JHU decided to run a fund-raising auction and asked each student group to donate some object to the enterprise. As an officer of the College Republicans, it fell to me to secure an autographed football from the erstwhile quarterback.

Jack Kemp, the former NFL player and nine-term New York Congressman who passed away tonight at the age of 73, played key roles in two New Jersey Republican statewide primaries.   In 1978, Kemp campaigned for Jeffrey Bell, a conservative former Reagan speechwriter who beat four-term incumbent Clifford Case in the Republican primary.  Part of Bell’s campaign platform included his strong support for Kemp-Roth, which sought to reduce income tax rates by nearly 33%. In 1981, Kemp endorsed Tom Kean in his bid for the Republican nomination for Governor.  With endorsements from conservatives like Kemp and Bell, Kean was able to enhance his appeal to GOP primary voters.

The announcement today that U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is switching parties is of little significance to New Jersey politics, except that it comes at a time when establishment Republicans are engaged in a fierce battle with conservatives for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  Specter’s decision will likely upset some party leaders who view him as the type of Republican who can win a state that is trending Democratic.  And his switch will probably evoke a sort of “good riddance, rino” attitude from the conservative wing of the New Jersey GOP.

New Jersey, which hasn’t elected a Republican U.S. Senator since Clifford Case won a fourth term in 1972, has tossed two of their last three GOP Senators before the general election: Albert Hawkes was dumped by party leaders in his bid for a second term in 1948, and Case lost the 1978 GOP primary to conservative Jeffrey Bell.  And New Jersey Republicans have tossed one of their last three GOP Governors: incumbent William Cahill was ousted in the 1973 primary by Charles Sandman, a conservative Congressman.  (Another Republican Governor, Christine Todd Whitman, has been battling conservatives in a bid to keep moderates in the Republican Party.)

Bret Schundler's endorsement of Christopher Christie in the GOP gubernatorial primary is significant, although Steve Lonegan's camp will suggest it is not.  Support from Schundler makes it more difficult for Lonegan to persuade conservative Republican primary voters to oppose Christie, the former U.S. Attorney who has become the front runner for the chance to challenge Gov. Jon Corzine in the fall.  Like U.S. Rep. Christopher Smith, whose endorsement of Christie is like a Good Housekeeping seal of approval within the pro-life community - a vote Lonegan must win big if he is to be successful in the June primary - Schundler is popular enough with conservatives that his support will be helpful.

Thomas Kean employed a similar strategy in his 1981 bid for Governor, using primary endorsements from U.S. Reps. Jim Courter and Jack Kemp, and 1978 U.S. Senate candidate Jeffrey Bell, to appeal to conservative Republican primary voters.

Conservative GOP statewide candidates, left to right: Albert Hawkes, Charles Sandman, Jeff Bell and Bret Schundler

If Steve Lonegan wins election as Governor, he might be the first conservative Republican to win a statewide election in New Jersey since Albert Hawkes ousted incumbent William Smathers in the 1942 U.S. Senate race. Hawkes served as President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce before running for the Senate - his first bid for public office.

Since then, Republican statewide winners have been considered moderates: Governors Alfred Driscoll, William Cahill, Thomas Kean and Christine Todd Whitman; and U.S. Senators Robert Hendrickson, Alexander Smith, and Clifford Case.  Other Republicans widely viewed as conservatives, including Charles Sandman, Jeffrey Bell, and Bret Schundler, were unsuccessful general election candidates.

Left to right: U.S. Sen. Clifford Case and his 1978 GOP primary opponent, Jeff Bell; 2001 Republican gubernatorial candidates Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco and Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler.

There is a temptation by the media, including this site, to designate former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie as the front runner for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  A Quinnipiac poll released yesterday with a 27-point lead, 44%-17%, over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. 

A February 2001 Quinnipiac poll had Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco leading Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler 45%-16% among Republican primary voters.  A Quinnipiac poll taken in May showed former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks with a 46%-24% lead over Schundler.  Schundler won the primary by fourteen points, 57%-43%. 

In 2000, former Gov. Jim Florio had a 57%-22% lead over first-time candidate Jon Corzine in a February Quinnipiac poll.  Corzine won the primary 58%-42%.

Conservative Jeff Bell, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, beat four-term U.S. Senator Clifford Case in the 1978 GOP Primary by a 51%-49% margin.  But just a month earlier, an Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Case leading Bell 35%-7%.

Gov. Richard J. Hughes won 91% of the vote in the 1965 Democratic gubernatorial primary, when he sought re-election to a second term.

Only twice have incumbent statewide officeholders lost primary elections.  They were both Republicans: in 1973, U.S. Rep. Charles Sandman defeated Governor William Cahill by a 58%-41% margin; and in 1978, when four-term U.S. Senator Clifford Case lost to Jeffrey Bell, a 35-year-old former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, by a 51%-49% margin.

In 1977, Governor Brendan Byrne had ten opponents in the Democratic primary, including two Congressmen, a State Senator, and his own Commissioner of Labor.  Byrne won with 30% of the vote; U.S. Rep. Robert Roe came in second with 23%.

The most high profile primary against an incumbent came in 2008, when 84-year-old U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg faced a major challenge from U.S. Rep. Robert Andrews.  Lautenberg won 59% of the vote in the Democratic primary, with 35% for Andrews and 6% for Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello. 

Lautenberg has faced two minor challenges as an incumbent.  He won 81% against Bill Campbell and Lynne Speed in 1994 and 80% against Elnardo Webster (the father of a powerful Democratic lawyer) and Harold Young in 1988.

In New Jersey, incumbent United States Senators have rarely faced competitive primary challenges, and the only incumbent Senator to lose a primary was Clifford Case, a four-term Republican who lost 50.7%-49.3% to conservative Jeffrey Bell, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan’s 1976 presidential campaign.  Case had faced primary challenges from the right before: Robert Morris, who had been Chief Counsel for Senate Internal Security Subcommittee headed by Joseph McCarthy, won 33% in 1960; and James Walter Ralph, a Bergen County physician, received 30% in 1972.