James Florio

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees have met in a Word Series only once before: in 1950.  The Governor of New Jersey was Alfred Driscoll, a Republican from Haddonfield and a serious Phillies fan. There were no statewide elections that year, and thirteen Congressmen running for re-election won; the GOP held an open seat in the old seventh district (Bergen County in those days) with 70% of the vote.

The Phillies have only been in the World Series during one New Jersey gubernatorial election year: 1993, when Republican Christine Todd Whitman ousted incumbent James Florio, a Camden County Democrat. 

New Jersey has elected Governors eleven times in a year when the Yankees won the World Series.  Democrats have won in seven of those years, and the Republicans in four.  In those years, when the Democrats win the governorship, the Yankees win the World Series 57% of the time; when the GOP elects a Governor, the Yankees are world champions 75% of the time.

If Jon Corzine wins re-election, it will be the first time since 1961 that any political party has won three consecutive races for Governor of New Jersey.  If Christopher Christie wins, he will become the first Governor to win his first statewide campaign since 1973.

Republicans won in 1946 and 1949, Democrats in 1953, 1957, 1961 and 1965, Republicans in 1969, Democrats in 1973 and 1977, Republicans in 1981 and 1985, Democrats in 1989, Republicans in 1993 and 1997, and Democrats in 2001 and 2005.

Since Brendan Byrne won in 1973 - his first bid for public office -- future Governors had made prior statewide bids: Thomas Kean lost a 1977 GOP gubernatorial primary before winning in 1981; Jim Florio was elected in 1989 after losing the 1977 Democratic primary and the 1981 general election; Christine Todd Whitman lost a race for U.S. Senate three years before winning the 1993 gubernatorial campaign; James E. McGreevey lost to Whitman in 1997 and won in 2001; and Corzine had run successfully for the U.S. Senate before running for Governor.

In 1993, the last time a Democratic Governor ran for re-election, Jim Florio won the newspaper endorsement game.  He beat Christine Todd Whitman 16-7, and dominated among the largest newspapers.  Florio's endorsements included the Star-Ledger, The Record, the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Trenton Times, the Asbury Park Press, the Trenton Times, the Courier-Post, the Daily Record, and the Press of Atlantic City.  Whitman's endorsements included the Trentonian, the Home News Tribune, the Courier-News, the Burlington County Times, and the Wall Street Journal. 

Since 1961, the New York Times has endorsed the winner in nine of the last twelve campaigns for Governor of New Jersey.   They have also backed incumbents in each of the last six races where a sitting Governor sought re-election, including their support of Gov. Jon Corzine, and have backed Democrats nine times and Republicans three times.

In races where incumbents were seeking second terms, the New York Times endorsed Christine Todd Whitman in 1997, James Florio in 1993, Thomas Kean in 1985, Brendan Byrne in 1977,and Richard Hughes in 1965.  Florio, Byrne and Hughes were Democrats; Whitman and Kean were Republicans.  Only Florio was defeated; he lost to Whitman.

In contests for open seats, the New York Times backed Corzine in 2005, James E. McGreevey in 2001, Florio in 1989, Kean in 1981, Byrne in 1973, Robert Meyner in 1969, and James Mitchell in 1961.  Kean and Mitchell were Republicans.  Meyner, a former  two-term Governor seeking a comeback, and Mitchell, who was U.S. Secretary of Labor in the Eisenhower administration, were defeated.  Meyner lost to William Cahill and Hughes defeated Mitchell.

This is Jon Corzine's fourth (and perhaps last) contested race for statewide office, and it's the fourth time his campaign has been accused of ducking debates.  Corzine seems to initially balk at debates, and then ultimately give in and participate.  That lends some credibility to the theory that the governor would wind up taking part in NJN's October 1 debate if the Election Law Enforcement Commission declines to move the debate to October 22.

During his bid for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination in 2000, former Gov. Jim Florio accepted eight debate invitations and his campaign asked Corzine to participate in all eight.  Corzine initially said he would only debate Florio twice, but after debates became a process story, Corzine wound up debating Florio four times in eight days.

In the general election, Republican Robert Franks called on Corzine to debate him 21 times - once in each county.  Again, Corzine sought just two debates, but under some pressure wound up agreeing to three, including two on network television.

GOP State Chairman Jay Webber wants Jamie Fox, now working as a senior advisor to Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election campaign, to quit his seat on the Local Finance Board, which enforces ethics laws at the local level.

"Here we go again.  While Governor Corzine attempted to score points by recycling his old, empty promises on ethics reform in this campaign, his actions once again fall far short of his rhetoric," said Webber (R-Morris Plains), a freshman Assemblyman.  "Beyond the irony in having Jim McGreevey's top advisor responsible for enforcing ethics laws, Fox's prominent role with Governor Corzine's reelection campaign raises a huge red flag for Fox's conflicting interests."

GOP State Chairman Jay Webber says that Jim Florio is no longer the worst Governor in New Jersey history. Florio campaign and administration staffers are gathering at Drumthwacket tonight to celebrate the 20th anniversary of his election as Governor.

With alumni of former Gov. Jim Florio’s administration gathering at Drumthwacket tonight to celebrate the 20th anniversary of his election, Republican State Chairman Jay Webber couldn’t help but note what he said was irony.  

“It’s just unbelievable to me that Jon Corzine and the Democrats want to celebrate one of the most disastrous governorships in New Jersey’s history,” said Webber in a phone interview today.  “He’s giving them the Governor’s Mansion to hold the celebration.”

Corzine does not plan to be at the event, but Webber said that they must have gotten his permission to use the official governor’s residence.  

The gathering comes a day after a new Quinnipiac poll shows Christie leading Corzine by 12 points, continuing an long, unbroken string of polls showing the Republican significantly ahead. 

Pollsters got it wrong the last two times a Democratic Governor ran for re-election:  an August 1993 Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Gov. James Florio leading Republican Christine Todd Whitman by nine points, 49%-40%; and Republican Raymond Bateman led Gov. Brendan Byrne by seven points, 46%-39%, in an August 1977 Eagleton-Rutgers poll.

In 1993, Florio had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 49%-40%.  31% rated his job as excellent or good, 36% said he was a fair governor, and 23% rated him as poor.

In 1977, 28% of New Jerseyans viewed Byrne as an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job.

Whitman beat Florio 49%-48%, and Byrne was re-elected by a 56%-42% margin over Bateman.

Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trails Republican Christopher Christie by 12 points, 53%-41%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  Christie is the first Republican to be over 50% in a summer poll since Thomas Kean ran for re-election 24 years ago.

Corzine has upside-down favorables/unfavorables of 34%-58%, and an upside-down job approval rating of 33%-60%. 

In his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, Democrat Robert Torricelli had upside-down favorable/unfavorable rating of 15%-36% and an upside-down job approval rating of 28%-49% in an August 2002 Quinnipiac poll. In an August 2008 Quinnipiac poll, President George W. Bush had an upside-down job approval rating of 26%-70%.

Both of New Jersey's Democratic U.S. Senators have taken a slight dip in the job approval ratings since last month, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) is at 43%-40% among likely voters and 42%-39% among registered voters; he was at 44%-36% in June and at 46%-37% in May. Among Independents, Lautenberg is upside-down at 39%-47%.

Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken) has a 40%-37% approval rating among likely voters, and at 39%-37% among registered voters.  He was at 40%-31% in June and 41%-32% in May, among registered voters.  Among Independents, Menendez is upside-down 34%-43%.

In 1990, after then-Gov. Jim Florio raised taxes by $2.4 billion, popular Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Bradley also took a hit with voters: he won re-election with just 50.4% of the vote. 

Members of Jim Florio's staff, campaign and administration will gather at Drumthwacket tomorrow to celebrate the 20th anniversary of his election as Governor of New Jersey.  Gov. Jon Corzine will not be in attendance, and no taxpayer funds are being used for the event.