James E. McGreevey

Statistically, Democrats are more likely to win a race for Governor of New Jersey when the New York Yankees lose Game 1 of the Word Series.   The Yankees have played in the World Series eleven times in gubernatorial election years, and have only lost Game 1 two other times: in 2001, when Democrat James E. McGreevey was elected, and in 1922, when Democrat George Silzer won.  Tonight's win by the Philadelphia Phillies marks the first time they won Game 1 of the World Series in a year New Jersey elects a Governor; in 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays won Game 1.

If Jon Corzine wins re-election, it will be the first time since 1961 that any political party has won three consecutive races for Governor of New Jersey.  If Christopher Christie wins, he will become the first Governor to win his first statewide campaign since 1973.

Republicans won in 1946 and 1949, Democrats in 1953, 1957, 1961 and 1965, Republicans in 1969, Democrats in 1973 and 1977, Republicans in 1981 and 1985, Democrats in 1989, Republicans in 1993 and 1997, and Democrats in 2001 and 2005.

Since Brendan Byrne won in 1973 - his first bid for public office -- future Governors had made prior statewide bids: Thomas Kean lost a 1977 GOP gubernatorial primary before winning in 1981; Jim Florio was elected in 1989 after losing the 1977 Democratic primary and the 1981 general election; Christine Todd Whitman lost a race for U.S. Senate three years before winning the 1993 gubernatorial campaign; James E. McGreevey lost to Whitman in 1997 and won in 2001; and Corzine had run successfully for the U.S. Senate before running for Governor.

Since 1961, the New York Times has endorsed the winner in nine of the last twelve campaigns for Governor of New Jersey.   They have also backed incumbents in each of the last six races where a sitting Governor sought re-election, including their support of Gov. Jon Corzine, and have backed Democrats nine times and Republicans three times.

In races where incumbents were seeking second terms, the New York Times endorsed Christine Todd Whitman in 1997, James Florio in 1993, Thomas Kean in 1985, Brendan Byrne in 1977,and Richard Hughes in 1965.  Florio, Byrne and Hughes were Democrats; Whitman and Kean were Republicans.  Only Florio was defeated; he lost to Whitman.

In contests for open seats, the New York Times backed Corzine in 2005, James E. McGreevey in 2001, Florio in 1989, Kean in 1981, Byrne in 1973, Robert Meyner in 1969, and James Mitchell in 1961.  Kean and Mitchell were Republicans.  Meyner, a former  two-term Governor seeking a comeback, and Mitchell, who was U.S. Secretary of Labor in the Eisenhower administration, were defeated.  Meyner lost to William Cahill and Hughes defeated Mitchell.

New Jerseyans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the state today, according to today's Quinnipiac University poll. 32% are either "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied," while 67% of voters are either "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." 

Twelve years ago, the last time an incumbent governor ran for re-election, an October Quinnipiac poll said that 61% of New Jerseyans were either "very satisfied or somewhat satisfied" with life in the state, while 38% were either "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." 

Gov. Jon Corzine's job approvals are upside-down, 39%-56%.  Among independents, his approvals are at 34%-62%.  Republican Christopher Christie leads him narrowly, 41%-40%, a number within the margin of error.

When Gov. Christine Todd Whitman ran for re-election in 1997, her October approvals were at 53%-43%; she was a 49%-47% among independents.  She had an eight-point lead, 45%-37%, over Democratic challenger James E. McGreevey.  Whitman won that race just narrowly, 47%-46%.

U.S. Senator Robert Menendez's new book, Growing American Roots : Why Our Nation Will Thrive as Our Largest Minority Flourishes, has been published by Penguin Group (USA).  Menendez did his first book signing on Sunday in his old home town of Union City, where he broke into politics as a young school board member, Mayor, Assemblyman and State Senator before winning a seat in Congress in 1992. He is now the lone Latino in the United States Senate.

Menendez's book is now at 145,057 on the Barnes & Noble sales rank.  As a matter of comparison, as of this morning: former Gov. James E. McGreevey's book is ranked 119,152, ex-U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli's book on great political speeches is at 190,079, and former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley's most recent book is at 101,309.  Menendez leads another Cuban American Senator, Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), whose book is at 404,504.  He is also in a tight contest with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whose boom is at 116,354.

Another tight race: sales of Menendez's book are trailing pre-sales of John Wefing's biography of another prominent New Jersey Democrat. The Life and Times of Richard J. Hughes : The Politics of Civility, a biography of the former two-term Governor and Chief Justice of the New Jersey Supreme Court.  The Hughes book is at 114,697 and is due to be released on November 15.

Twelve years ago, New Jersey Democrats were begging - literally - for the Democratic National Committee and President Bill Clinton for help in the race for Governor.  National Democrats saw polling that had popular Republican Gov. Christine Todd Whitman ahead of Democrat James E. McGreevey, a one-term State Senator and Mayor of Woodbridge who was good on message discipline. The DNC pollster, Mark Penn, said McGreevey had no chance.  But in New Jersey, Democrats sensed an opportunity.  National Democrats viewed Virginia as the more winnable race, and poured millions of dollars into the campaign of Lt. Gov. Donald Beyer. 

On Election Day, Beyer lost 56%-43% to Republican James Gilmore, the state Attorney General. McGreevey came within one percentage point of upsetting Whitman, 47%-46%, a margin of 25,426 votes.  Some New Jersey Democrats still think Whitman would have lost if they DNC had helped.

If you are a New Jersey State Senator, you are more likely to die in office than to win higher elective office. Under the current State Constitution, 49 sitting State Senators have asked voters to promote them to a new office, but only eleven have won.  

That might be bad news for Loretta Weinberg, the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor, and the 50th State Senator to run for another office.

Nearly half of the State Senators seeking higher office have run for Governor and all 21 have lost: Malcolm Forbes (1957), Wayne Dumont (1965), Raymond Bateman (1977) and James E. McGreevey (1997) won major party nominations but lost the general election -- each time to an incumbent; William Schluter ran as an Independent in 2001; and Walter Jones (1961), Charles Sandman (1965), William Kelly (1969), Frank McDermott (1969), William Ozzard (1969), Harry Sears (1969), Ralph DeRose (1973), Raymond Garramone (1977), Frank Dodd (1981), William Hamilton (1981), Joseph Merlino (1981), James Wallwork (1981), Bill Gormley (1989) and Gerald Cardinale (1989).

Edward Crabiel gave up his Senate seat to run in 1973 but withdrew when some party leaders decided to back Brendan Byrne. In 2001, Donald DiFrancesco dropped his bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

All seven State Senators who have run for the United States Senate have lost: Frank Guarini, in 1970 Democratic primary against Harrison Williams; Richard LaRossa (1996), Bill Gormley (2000), Diane Allen (2002), John Matheussen (2002), Thomas Kean, Jr. (2006) and Joseph Pennacchio (2008).  Only Kean won a primary.  (The last time a sitting State Senator went to the U.S. Senate was in 1934, when William Smathers beat Kean's great-grandfather.)

Eleven of the fourteen sitting State Senators who have run for Congress have won: John Hunt (1966), Edwin Forsythe (1970), Joseph Maraziti (1972), Matthew Rinaldo (1992), Bernard Dwyer (1980), James Saxton (1984), Frank Pallone (1988), Richard Zimmer (1990), Robert Menendez (1992), John Adler (2008) and Leonard Lance (2008).  Five have lost House bids: Richard Stout (1968), Joseph Kyrillos (1992), Gormley (1994), John Bennett (1996), and Cardinale (2002).

Tom Moran will return to the Star-Ledger as a political columnist eighteen months after he left the state's largest newspaper to take a communications job with PSE&G, New Jersey's largest utility company.  Moran was part of the Star-Ledger team that won the Pulitzer Prize in 2005 for their coverage of Gov. James E. McGreevey's resignation. 

Moran's comeback means that the Star-Ledger will go back to analysis pieces that have been largely absent since he left the paper in February 2008.  Only Paul Mulshine, who writes from a conservative viewpoint, has been noticeable as a political columnist.  Since Moran's departure, a trio of columnists for The Record, Charles Stile, Alfred Doblin, and Herb Jackson, have effectively dominated the political opinion pages in the New Jersey print media.

GOP State Chairman Jay Webber wants Jamie Fox, now working as a senior advisor to Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election campaign, to quit his seat on the Local Finance Board, which enforces ethics laws at the local level.

"Here we go again.  While Governor Corzine attempted to score points by recycling his old, empty promises on ethics reform in this campaign, his actions once again fall far short of his rhetoric," said Webber (R-Morris Plains), a freshman Assemblyman.  "Beyond the irony in having Jim McGreevey's top advisor responsible for enforcing ethics laws, Fox's prominent role with Governor Corzine's reelection campaign raises a huge red flag for Fox's conflicting interests."

Gov. Jon Corzine, trailing his Republican opponent in a bid for re-election, has asked veteran Democratic strategist Jamie Fox to take a senior role in his campaign, Democratic sources say.  Democrats say that Fox would be an addition to the team and stressed that it is not a campaign shakeup.  Fox would not replace any of the existing campaign staff, and sources say that Corzine's longtime Chief of Staff, Tom Shea, and strategist Steve DeMicco will be staying on.

Fox, sources say, has not yet made a final decision to accept.

Over the next two weeks, the Corzine campaign is expected to bring several well-known operatives on to their staff in a full-time capacity.  The moves are expected to engage some key Democratic constituencies that have been less than enthusiastic over the governor's bid for a second term. 

The 55-year-old Fox served as Chief of Staff to Gov. James E. McGreevey and to U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli.  He was the Executive Director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, state Commissioner of Transportation, U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg's state director, and Deputy Chief of Staff to Gov. Jim Florio.  Prior to opening a lobbying firm, Fox was the Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

He took a leave from his firm last September to join Barack Obama's campaign, and was sent to Florida as a senior advisor.  John McCain had an 8-point lead in Florida before Fox arrived; Obama won the state by 2.5 points.