James Carville

Two polls conducted by Democratic polling firms show different results in the race for Governor of New Jersey.  

A Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. poll has Republican Christopher Christie with a five-point lead, 43%-38%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 13%.  The poll was conducted between September 30 and October 5 with a sample size of 671 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

The survey says that 72% of likely voters view New Jersey as being on the wrong track, and 68% viewing economic issues as most important (44% Taxes, 24% unemployment/jobs).  Corruption was the top issue for 13%.

A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted for James Carville's Democracy Corps has Corzine ahead by three points, 41%-38%, against Christie.  Daggett is at 14%.

Carville was listed on reports filed with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission as a contributor to Corzine's re-election campaign.

The Carville poll has Corzine's favorables upside-down at 37%-46%, and Christie upside-down at 30%-42%.  Daggett now has statewide name ID of 45% -- up sixteen points in two weeks, but has favorables of just 14%.

Republican Christopher Christie has a five point lead, 40%-35%, over Gov. Jon Corzine, according to a poll conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Democratic firm.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 10%.

Democracy Corps is run by longtime Democratic strategists James Carville and Stanley Greenberg.

Without Daggett, Christie leads Corzine 43%-37%.

The poll was conducted August 11-12 among 620 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

Check back tomorrow morning to view my sketchpad for day two of the Democratic National Convention, and go to my national blog to follow convention coverage by cartoonists from around the country.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow's Quinnipiac poll will look like? Political observers say not to count on anything too exciting.

Gov. Jon Corzine's fiscal restructuring plan will remain unpopular. Corzine's approval rating will likely take a dip, although not a huge one. And Sen. Frank Lautenberg's numbers will probably remain somewhat anemic but not too threatening.

The one thing that's close to certain is that there won't be a bump in the Governor's numbers.

"You don't have to be James Carville to figure that out," said Assemblyman Joe Cryan, who chairs the state Democratic Party. "Without knowing it, I assume his numbers will have dipped. I assume that people won't like the plan because the press discussion, in all candor, has been on one point and not on all four."

But, Cryan said, the public will likely give Corzine credit for trying to "deliver a tough message."

The Winner of the James Carville Rapid Response Award is the New Jersey Republican State Committee, who declared Doug Forrester the winner of the first gubernatorial debate at 2:16 PM EST today, a mere 17 hours and 16 minutes after the debate ended. The winner of the New Jersey Katherine Harris Award is Congressman Steven Rothman, whose perhaps should never have agreed to running the Special Election Convention for State Senate in the 37th district last week.