Ingrid Reed

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

By throwing his support behind Ron Paul, Assemblyman Mike Doherty became the highest profile New Jersey politician to back the long shot presidential candidate.

This move wasn't surprising to people who have followed the career of the very conservative and outspoken legislator from Warren County, who tends not to equivocate on his political stances. But for a politician with aspirations for higher office, it wasn't the most practical choice.

While other legislators are lining up to hitch part of their political fortunes to Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain, Doherty chose a fringe candidate who consistently polls in the very low single digits. To Doherty, it's not so much about bolstering his own shot at a statewide seat someday as it is the principle of supporting the candidate he sees as most in line with old-fashioned, straight up conservatism.

Remember all those ethics complaints during the campaigns?  Wonder what happens to them?

We’ll see tomorrow, when the Joint Legislative Committee on Ethical Standards meets to rule on the five complaints that have been filed since the committee last met.  But if history is any guide, they’ll mostly be dismissed. 

While legislators who sit on the committee say that complaints occasionally have at least some level of validity, some say they’re filed more to get a headline in the heat of a campaign rather than pointing out a real, troubling ethical infraction.  They also say they’ve noticed it happening more often in recently, with candidates taking advantage of a committee – one with a reputation for being toothless and ineffective -- for their political ends.   

Indeed, 2007 was the year of the ethics complaint, with 10 filed so far- the most of any year on record, going back to 1972.  Five have been settled, all of which were dismissed.

U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie is a likely candidate for the GOP nomination for Governor in 2009Perception of corruption’s so rampant, political scientists say it’s unlikely yesterday’s fiasco will substantially impact Election Day.

Every time U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie puts on the cape and lands on the steps of a federal building in either Trenton or Newark, inevitably there are those who want to try to drive over a mud puddle and spatter the fearless crusader.

What Christie has had to stare down in particular over the past year is the criticism that under the guise of Captain Americanism he’s little more than a lowly spear carrier for the Bush administration, serving a subpoena to Democrat Robert Menendez in 2006, and in ‘07 going after urban and mostly African-American lawmakers who represent poor Democratic districts.

The last time all 120 legislative seats were in play, back in 2003, Gov. James E. McGreevey, who was suffering from low poll numbers, made himself scarce on the campaign trail.

Although Gov. Jon S. Corzine doesn’t suffer from the same upside-down poll numbers as McGreevey did, he doesn’t appear to be a hot commodity with Democratic legislative candidates running in the fall mid-term elections.

While Democrats aren’t running away from Corzine, they’re not exactly tripping over themselves to get him on their campaigns. As of right now, aside from a couple bill signings, none of the Democrats who are in competitive races -- districts one, two, seven, eight, 12, 14, 38 or 39 -- have any rallies or fundraisers planned with Corzine.

There are great primary races for State Senate and Assembly in seven districts tomorrow. Some are about the candidates themselves, and others are about power struggles between party leaders and other key players.

Each of these districts – 24, 26, 28, 29, 31, 33 and 40 – are competitive only in primaries. That means a victory in Tuesday’s primary in tantamount to election.

PoliticsNJ.com asked four political science professors who keep a careful eye on New Jersey politics for their predictions in key races: Ingrid Reed, the Director of the Eagleton Project at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute for Politics; David Rebovich, the Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics; Montclair University Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison; and Seton Hall University Political Science Professor (and Acting Dean) Joseph Marbach.