George W. Bush

State Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May) is not on the ballot this year, giving Republicans hope that they can pickup two Assembly seats in the 1st district.

The best shot for the Republicans to pick up a State Assembly seat is in the first district, where incumbents Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam will need to defend their seats without the benefit of State Sen. Jeff Van Drew at the top of the ticket.  They won in 2007 as the popular Van Drew was ousting GOP incumbent Nicholas Asselta by twelve points.  Albano, swept into office as Van Drew's running mate in 2005, won comfortably; Milam beat Republican Michael Donohue by 2,020 votes.  This is the first time in history that Cape May County is represented by all Democratic legislators.

Milam won't be helped by his admission that he parked in a handicapped spot last October.  The freshman Assemblyman initially sought a trial, alleging that the spot was not clearly marked.  This is not the most egregious offense for a New Jersey legislator in recent years, but it could make a decent mailer and cable TV ad.  Donohue is reportedly interested in running again.

District 1 may be among the most politically competitive in the state, although it has clearly trended Democratic over the last three years.  George W. Bush carried the district over John Kerry by 4,792 votes, and Barack Obama beat John McCain by 5,095.  Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester by 2,984 in the 2005 gubernatorial race, and Tom Kean, Jr. defeated Robert Menendez for U.S. Senate in 2006 by 3,439.  All three of those races were about 53%-47%.

Bill Palatucci, Chris Christie's former law partner, managed campaigns for Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Tom Kean.

Democrats seem determined to tie former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie to President Bush if he becomes the Republican nominee for Governor, but Christie’s allies say that it was the ex-Prosecutor’s friend and top strategist, William Palatucci, who avidly championed Bush when he began running for President in the late 1990’s.

Christie, who was Palatucci’s law partner, raised money for George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign as part of a bigger effort coordinated by Palatucci, a veteran Republican operative who ran campaigns for Ronald Reagan, Thomas Kean and George H.W. Bush.

“It’s hard to imagine the Democrats not using every opportunity possible to highlight the fact that Chris Christie was part of an effort that raised significant money for George W. Bush, one of the most unpopular politicians in a generation” said Ben Dworkin, director of the David Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “He’s had an outstanding career as U.S. Attorney. But the connection is different from the one the Democrats tried to use against U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance.”

Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood), the Democratic candidate for Congress against Lance, ran repeated TV ads of Lance’s face interposed with that of Bush.  Lance won by nine percentage points.

“But Christie’s different than Lance because Lance didn’t become an assemblyman and senator because George Bush picked him,” said Dworkin. “Christie became U.S. Attorney because George Bush did.”

The main strand of the Bush-Christie connection hinges on what for Palatucci was a fortuitous encounter with the younger Bush as the then-Texas governor geared up for his 2000 presidential campaign.

At that point, Palatucci’s relationship with the Bushes was already long and recurring, and it was in his role as the New Jersey chief of the presidential campaigns of Bush’s father that he developed a relationship with the younger Bush.

President Bush made some last minute appointments that included three New Jerseyans: U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and GOP fundraiser Cheryl Halpern were appointed to five-year terms on the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. And the general manager of the New York Mets, Omar Minaya, was named to the President’s Council on Physical Fitness and Sports.

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President Bush now has lower approval ratings in New Jersey than Richard Nixon did in May 1974, three months before he resigned the presidency

George W. Bush’s job approval ratings among New Jersey voters is at the lowest point in his presidency.  A new Quinnipiac University poll has Bush at an upside-down 18%-78%, worse than his 22%-75% numbers in a June poll.  Bush is now upside-down among Republicans, 45%-48%.  And in heavily Republican northwestern New Jersey, which includes Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties, the 43rd president is at an upside-down 24%-71%.  Among African Americans, Bush's positive job approval does not register; his negative is at 95%.

In New Jersey, Bush is now less popular than Richard Nixon was three months before his 1974 resignation.  An Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Nixon’s job approval at 19%-76%.

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U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey will designate an Acting U.S. Attorney for New Jersey. Ralph Marra,, Jr., the current First Assistant AUSA, has reportedly been recommended by Chris Christie for the post

Christopher Christie's early exit as federal prosecutor makes it easier for his top assistant, Ralph Marra, Jr., to become the Acting U.S. Attorney while the new President settles on a permanent replacement.  Traditionally, prosecutors sbmit their resignations effective with the change in administrations (January 20, 2009) and the U.S. Attorney General designates the First Assistant as Acting U.S. Attorney.  That person remains in office for four months, with a term that can be extedned by a panel of federal judges, until the President gets around to nominating a new prosecutor -- and until the U.S. Senate votes to confirm the nomination.  Christie didn't become U.S. Attorney until more than a year after George W. Bush took office.

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For Barack Obama, the process will be a bit easier: New Jersey has two Democratic U.S. Senators, and a Senate that is controlled by Democrats.  But appointing Christie's successor is not likely to be the top priority of the new adminisration.  Christie's departure 51 days before Obama takes office allows Michael Mukasey, Bush's Attorney General, to designate the Acting U.S. Attorney -- presumably Marra, a career federal prosecutor and a Democrat with close ties to Christie.   

Of the two New Jersey congressional districts where Republican incumbents did not seek re-election this year, the third district in parts of Ocean, Burlington and Camden counties is arguably more Republican than the seventh district, which includes parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex counties.  In District 3, Jim Saxton won 58% of the vote in 2006 and 63% in 2004; George W. Bush won with 51% in 2004.  In the 7th, Mike Ferguson nearly lost his 2006 re-election bid to Democrat Linda Stender, 49%-48%, after winning 57% in 2004; Bush won 53% four years ago.  Republicans have held the Saxton seat since 1884 and the Ferguson seat since 1956.

In an attempt to move conservative Republican voters away from Leonard Lance, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) sent out a piece of direct mail  -- to hard Republican voters -- criticizing independent Michael Hsing, a GOP Councilman from Bridgewater, from being too conservative for the district.  The attack on Hsing suggests that he is pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax cut, and anti-gay marriage, and notes that he was a George W. Bush delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention. 

ISELIN -- If only third graders could vote.

Talking to PolitickerNJ.com before addressing a group of senior citizens with State Sen. Joseph Vitale (D-Woodbridge), Stender said that ads run waged by her opponent and the third party groups that support him -- rhyming her last name with "Spender," "truth bender" or putting anti-Stender lyrics to the tune of Yankee Doodle -- are insulting to the voters of the 7th Congressional District.

"I'm very popular amongst the third grade set because of the nursery rhyme nature of the campaign that's been run. The kids are always happy to see me, because they know the ads," she said.

Stender's ads against State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) have been primarily negative, drawing parallels Lance to President Bush. She prefers the word "comparative."

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied 47%-47% in northwestern New Jersey, according to the new Quinnipiac University poll that looked at voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties. In an October 19, 2004 Quinnipiac poll, George W. Bush led John Kerry in this same region by a 61%-28% margin. And in an October 12, 2006 Quinnipiac poll of the race for United States Senator, northwestern New Jersey voters favored Tom Kean, Jr. over Bob Menendez by a 66%-32% margin.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, the Republican, are in a statistical dead heat in these five Republican counties, with Lautenberg leading 47%-45.