Gannett

A referendum for approval of $400 million bond issue to fund open space preservation water supply and flood plain protection, and farmland and historic preservation projects, leads 55%-32%, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.  Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan announced last week that he would lead a campaign to defeat the proposal.

The initiative leads 68%-19% among Democrats and 50%-37% among Independents; it trails 40%-46% among Republicans.  Voters who say they will support Gov. Jon Corzine favor the bond issue 70%-18%, while voters backing Republican Christopher Christie oppose the public question by a wide 34%-51% margin.  Daggett supporters also support the referendum, 63%-26%.

Among likely voters who are undecided in the race for Governor, 61% say they support the bond issue and 22% oppose it. 

The three top candidates for Lt. Governor are of no consequence in the 2009 gubernatorial election, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today. 

Democrat Loretta Weinberg, a State Senator from Bergen County and a seventeen-year veteran of the Legislature, is unknown to 80% of likely voters and has statewide favorables of 11%-9%.  She is as unknown to Democrats as she is to Independents and Republicans.

Republican Kim Guadagno, the Monmouth County Sheriff, has statewide favorables of 9%-4%, but 87% of likely voters don't know who she is.  94% of undecided voters don't recognize her name.

Independent Frank Esposito, a retired Kean University professor, is unrecognized by 90% of likely voters.  He has favorables of 6%-4%.  Nearly 90% of those voting for his running mate don't know him.

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Gov. Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie tied at 39%, with independent Christopher Daggett third at 14%.  Corzine leads in North Jersey, 40%-38%, Christie leads 42%-36% in Central Jersey, and the candidates are tied at 39% in South Jersey.  Daggett runs best in Central Jersey (16%), and is at 13% in the North and 14% in the South.

Christie is getting 81% of the Republicans and Corzine receives 76% of the Democrats.  Christie has 45% of the independent vote, with Daggett at 22% and Corzine running third with 21%.  Daggett gets 11% of the Democrats, and 8% of the Republicans.

Corzine is winning women, 43%-39%, while Christie leads 40%-34% among men.  White voters favor Christie, 45%-32%, while Corzine leads 66%-17% among Blacks and Hispanics.  Daggett is at 9% among Blacks and Hispanics, below his statewide averages.

The gubernatorial race is tied, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll.

The poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie each getting 39%, while independent Christopher Daggett gets 14%.

A Monmouth poll from the beginning of this month showed Christie ahead of Corzine by three points - 43% to 40% -- with Daggett taking 8% of the vote.

Today's poll found that once reluctant Democrats are sticking with Corzine, but there may be some base trouble for Christie with the Republican base.  Christie had 86% of Republicans' support in the poll released early in the month and has 81% of the base in todays.  Corzine, who in July had 71% of Democrats' support, now has 76%.

Gov. Jon Corzine has a public event at 11AM tomorrow, which is the same time Gannett New Jersey has an editorial board debate scheduled. Does that mean Corzine will skip the Gannett event with Republican Christopher Christie and Independent Christopher Daggett, essentially conceding that Gannett newspapers will not endorse his bid for re-election?

Christopher Christie has a three point lead in the race for Governor, leading Jon Corzine by a 43%-40% margin among likely voters with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday has Christie ahead by four points, 43%-39%, with 13% for Daggett.  A Monmouth poll last month had Christie up by eight points.

"New Jersey election followers should not be entirely surprised by this dynamic.  Democratic voters in New Jersey start paying attention later in the fall, causing the Republican candidate to lose ground," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February,"

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-51%, about the same as last month.

Christie's favorables have dropped from 48%-30% to 41%-39%.  But Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables and is now at 40%-49%.

Murray says that politically independent women are a key factor in the narrowing of the gubernatorial race, with Corzine leading by a "statistically insignificant" 38%-37%.  Christie had a 28% lead among independent women in Monmouth's August poll.

"The great mammogram debate of 2009 seems to be winning converts among independent women.  While these voters had been giving their soft support to Christie based on discontent with the Corzine economic record, they appear to have beaten a hasty retreat when threats to their health care access were raised," said Murray.

Voters likely to participate in the 2009 election for Governor of New Jersey have virtually no idea who is running for Lt. Governor, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.  State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), Gov. Jon Corzine's running mate, has upside-down statewide favorable of 9%-11%, with, 80% of likely voters not knowing who she is.  Christopher Christie's running mate, Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno, has favorable of 8%-4%, and 89% of voters are unfamiliar with her.

Frank Esposito, the former Kean University professor and acting president who is running for Lt. Governor on a ticket with Independent Christopher Daggett, has statewide favorable of 6%-3%; 91% of likely voters don't recognize his name.

Among undecided likely voters, Weinberg's favorable are 4%-3%, with 92% having no opinion; Guadagno is at 3%-2%, with 95% don't recognize her.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has an eight point lead over Gov. Jon Corzine in a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll

Republican Christopher Christie continues to lead Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in independent polls.  A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today shows Christie leading Corzine by eight percentage points among likely voters, 47%-39% with 5% for Independent Christopher Daggett.

Christie led by ten points in a Quinnipiac University poll released last week, and had an eight point lead in a Rasmussen Reports poll released on Thursday.

 "A Republican holding a steady poll lead is unprecedented in recent New Jersey elections and this shouldn't be discounted.  But the results also indicate there is a lot of churning in this electorate," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Despite the incumbent's continued unpopularity, there is still a sense that anything can happen."

Corzine's job approvals are upside-down, at 37%-52%.  He has upside-down favorable of 39%-45%.  Christie had favorable of 41%-29%.

More than half (55%) of likely voters view the 2009 gubernatorial campaign has negative.

"Negative campaigning in New Jersey is nothing new, but past polling tells us that voters usually don't notice that negative tone until October.  Getting the electorate to register its disapproval of the campaign's conduct immediately after Labor Day is truly an accomplishment," said Murray.

Among independent likely voters, Christie is running fifteen points ahead of Corzine, 45%-30%.  Christie leads among Republicans 82%-8%, while Corzine leads among Democrats 77%-8% -- a 10-point improvement since the summer.  Corzine has increased his support among Black and Hispanic voters.

As New Jersey Democrats prepare for a visit from a popular President, a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by eight points, 45%-37%, and suggests that Barack Obama's visit "may do little to help" Corzine win a second term.

Christopher Daggett, a former state Environmental Protection Commissioner running as an independent, is at 4%.

Just 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their minds, and if leaners are taken out of the numbers, Christie's lead goes to 37%-33% -- just a four point advantage.

Corzine's greatest problem is his favorability rating: upside-down at 38%-47%.  A January Monmouth/Gannett poll had Corzine at 49%-38%.

"There is evidence that Corzine's ratings have taken a hit from the state budget process.  On the other hand, the Democrat's decision to air an attack ad may be putting a dent in the Christie armor," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Favorability ratings tend to be leading indicators of where an election is headed.  At this stage, these numbers can be more meaningful to the campaigns than the horse race itself."

Christie has a 43%-24% favorable rating, but Murray says "there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. "

"While the GOP nominee's favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points," said Murray.

Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, above, trails former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie by 18 points in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie holds an 18 point lead, 50%-32%, over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.  Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) is polling at 2%, with 16% still undecided.

Christie leads Lonegan 59%-25% among voters over age 60.  He has a 63%-26% lead in Central Jersey, a 49%-33% lead in North Jersey, a 45%-33% lead in South Jersey, and a 44%-35% lead in Northwestern New Jersey.  Christie has a 21 point lead in Morris County, and Lonegan leads by 10 points in Bergen County.

Lonegan leads 51%-36% among Republicans who describe themselves as "staunch conservatives," while Christie is ahead 58%-18% among moderates.   Lonegan is just slightly more likely than Christie to be seen as a "pro-life" candidate (42% to 33%).

"Chris Christie has solidified his front-runner status in this primary by increasing his appeal to the party's core conservative base.  He may not win this group outright, but he has made enough inroads to leave Steve Lonegan with little room to maneuver before June 2," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Winning in November trumps any specific issue positions for Republican primary voters.  For example, Mayor Lonegan's flat tax proposal has a good deal of support within the GOP electorate, but it doesn't seem to be enough to propel him to victory," said Murray.