Frederick Scalera

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Barack Obama beat John McCain in the 36th legislative district by 10,030 votes, 56%-44%.

New Jersey’s 36th legislative district, which includes politically competitive towns in South Bergen, the heavily Democratic city of Passaic, and Nutley, a swing town in Essex County, is supposed to be a battleground in the 2009 general election.  Assemblymen Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Frederick Scalera (D-Nutley) won by the lowest margin of any incumbent Democrats in 2007; Republican Don Diorio, a political newcomer who raised about $1,700, came within 2,424 votes of ousting Schaer.  Some Republicans think they can beat Schaer and Scalera this year, especially since State Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Wood-Ridge) is not on the ballot.

But despite some GOP gains at the local level, mostly in response to the EnCap development, the heavily blue collar district still leans Democratic.  In the 36th, Barack Obama beat John McCain 56%-44%, a margin of more than 10,000 votes.  Obama did slightly better than John Kerry’s 5,500 vote (54%-46%) win over George W. Bush in 2004. 

In the 2005 race for Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine won 61% of the vote in District 36, beating Republican Douglas Forrester by more than 10,500 votes.  For Republicans Christopher Christie or Steve Lonegan to win statewide, they’ll need to win the kind of towns that Forrester lost, like Nutley, Rutherford, Lyndhurst and North Arlington.  That could be an argument for either of them to pick five-term Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan for Lt. Governor.  Donovan carried six of the nine South Bergen towns in her 2008 re-election bid.

Speculation persists in Republican circles that Rutherford Mayor John Hipp would make a good assembly candidate, but Hipp has not been privy to it.

In September, Hipp told PolitickerNJ that he would only consider running if party leaders asked him to. That hasn’t changed.

“I haven’t said no because obviously if I’m asked to help out the party I want to do everything I can,” he said.

All eighty seats in the New Jersey General Assembly are up next year, with Democrats in strong shape to keep their majority under a legislative map that creates relatively few competitive races.

Republicans feel that they have a good chance to go on the offensive this year, even if taking control of the Assembly, where Democrats have a 48-32 majority, is an unlikely prospect. Assembly Republican Executive Director Rick Wright thinks the gubernatorial candidacy of U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, one of four Republicans actively exploring a statewide bid, would boost his party’s chances to pick up Assembly seats.

“It all depends on who our gubernatorial candidate is. I know there’s a lot of excitement out there about Chris Christie. If and when he makes his decision, that will help us in our recruiting. We have people out there sitting and saying I want to see what Chris Christie does,” Wright said. “A lot of county chairmen think we have a much better chance of success in gubernatorial and legislative races if Chris Christie is at the top of the ticket.”

If Gary Schaer runs for Mayor of Passaic and wins, he would need to resign from the State Assembly seat he’s held since 2006.  District 36 Democrats would hold a special election convention in November to fill the remaining fourteen months of his term.   This would not be a seamless transition:  Passaic County Democrats will view this as their seat; indeed Schaer would likely weigh in on the selection of a successor – probably someone from his own local political organization or even (in an effort to unite the city behind his new administration) pick one of the unsuccessful mayoral candidates.

Some Republican leaders believe Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola and Rutherford Mayor John Hipp would make a strong ticket for the State Assembly against incumbents Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer in the 36th district next year.  Last won by Republican Paul DiGaetano in 2003, the 36th was the closest race in the state last year in a district where the EnCap development at the Meadowlands has led to the defeat of more than a dozen local officials.

Four Democratic Assembly seats not expected to be in play in 2007 turned out to be especially close, including Linda Stender, who won re-election in 2007 about the same number of votes Mike Ferguson did in his congressional race against her 2006 bid.

Stender defeated Republican Robert Gatto, who spent about $100 and mounted no real campaign, by just 3,327 votes in the 22nd district.  Her running mate, Gerald Green, defeated Bryan Des Roschers by just 3,260 votes.  Gatto and Des Roschers have both lost bids for municipal office.

Most incumbents are favored to win re-election in the 2009 State Assembly elections, which bodes well for Speaker Joe Roberts’ re-election prospects. At the most, ten seats are in play – eight Democrats and two Republicans – and it will take some recruitment homeruns to substantially alter the political playing field next year. For the Republicans to win control of the Assembly, they would have to oust incumbents in Districts 1, 7, 14 and 36 – these eight seats would mean a split 40-40 Assembly – and knock out one incumbent from the safe list.

Democrats Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam are slightly more vulnerable in the first district because State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won’t be on the ballot. But the absence of State Sens. Diane Allen and Bill Baroni, who have not had coattails in the past, makes incumbent Democratic Assembly members even safer. In District 36, where Democrats Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer won surprisingly close re-election bids last year – Republicans could have an opportunity because there will be no Democrats from the Bergen County portion of the district on the ballot.

A town of 27,362 people in northeastern Essex County, Nutley has a long tradition of clout and influence in state and county politics -- largely through power of a bi-partisan local political machine run for more than thirty years by Frank Orechio, who leveraged a chain of weekly newspapers in Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield and Glen Ridge to help deliver votes to the candidates of his choice. Critics had long complained that the Orechio media empire -- for a time in the 1970's and 1980's it included a cable television station -- was a blatant conflict of interest because of the positions the Orechio family held at different levels of government.

Four Democratic Assembly seats not expected to be in play turned out to be especially close, including Linda Stender, who won re-election by about the same number of votes Mike Ferguson did in his congressional race against her last year.

Stender defeated Republican Robert Gatto, who spent about $100 and mounted no real campaign, by just 3,327 votes in the 22nd district.  Her running mate, Gerald Green, defeated Bryan Des Roschers by just 3,260 votes.  Gatto and Des Roschers have both lost bids for municipal office.

In the 36th district, Freshman Democratic Assemblyman Gary Schaer, the Passaic City Council President, won by just 2,370 votes over Republican Don Diorio and by only 2,474 votes over Republican Carmen Pio Costa. Democratic Assemblyman Frederick Scalera ran 886 votes ahead of Schaer. 

No matter who wins the race for State Senate and Assembly in District 36, Stephen Borg will be on the winning side: he is the Publisher of the Herald News, and the Publisher of The Record. The Herald News endorsed the re-election of Democratic incumbents Paul Sarlo, Gary Schaer and Frederick Scalera; The Record endorsed the three Republican challengers.