Fairleigh Dickinson University

President Barack Obama has a 52%-35% approval rating in New Jersey, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll.  But by a 44%-33% margin, New Jerseyans believe they would be worse off under Obama's health care reform proposal.

Gov. Jon Corzine, who is in a statistical dead heat with Republican Christopher Christie, according to portions of the FDU poll released earlier this week, is increasing his support among Obama supporters.  Corzine gets 72% of those who approve of Obama's job performance, up from 66% last month. 

CRYAN:  NEWLY RELEASED FDU POLL
SHOWS CORZINE’S STRENGTH & MOMENTUM
OF DEMOCRATIC PARTY

(TRENTON) -- New Jersey Democratic State Chairman Joseph P. Cryan today issued the following statement in response to the Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Poll released today that shows Governor Jon S. Corzine is now ahead of Chris Christie among likely voters:

Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by five points, 47%-42% among likely voters, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  Independent Christopher Daggett, who was not listed as one of the choices, is at 1%.

A July FDU poll had Christie ahead 45%-49%.

Corzine continues to struggle with job approval numbers.  One-third of likely voters (33%) say he has done a poor job, and 40% rate him as only fair.  Just 22% say he has done a good job as governor, and only 3% rate him as excellent.

"This is the expected result of an increasing volume of negative advertising," said Peter Woolley, the poll director.

Corzine has an upside-down 37%-54% favorable rating, while Christie is at 38%-35%.  Since July, Corzine's numbers have essentially remained the same, while Christie's favorables unfavorables have gone up from 34%-25% in July.

"The most important difference between these two candidates right now is in the support each one gets from his own party's voters," said Woolley.  "Among Republicans, Christie is preferred by 85%. Meanwhile, Corzine gets the support of 73% of Democrats. "That is an improvement from his earlier, tepid support, but still lagging," said Woolley.

Asked which candidate is better described as "honest, trustworthy," Corzine and Christie are now essentially tied (31% Corzine, 32% Christie), but Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, had been the clear leader, 33%-24%, in the previous survey.

With new polls released by Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports, Fairleigh Dickinson University decided to re-release their March 4 poll on the New Jersey gubernatorial primaries this morning.  The data in their previous poll appears to be the same as the one released today. 

Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle for the approval of New Jersey voters. He is upside-down, with 40% approval and 46% disapproval.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by nine percentage points, 41%-32%, in a Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll released this morning.

In a matchup among Republican primary voters, Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan 43%-15%.  Two other candidates, Franklin Mayor Brian Levine and Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) barely register, at 2% and 1%, respectively.

Corzine’s approval rating is upside-down at 40%-46%.  And the governor has a taken major hit in popularity with public employee households, with only 31% of their members approving of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. 

“When budgets are cut, public employees laid off, and taxes are in danger of being raised, lots of people think twice about their support for the incumbent,” said pollster Peter Woolley.Christie’s name recognition, which the same poll measured at 44% in January, is now 57%.  Lonegan’s statewide name ID is at 33%.

Corzine does come out on top in head-to-head match ups with the other Republican gubernatorial candidates, but not by huge margins, leading Lonegan by four points, 36% to 32%.  He leads Merkt 38% to 28% and Levine 38% to 27%.

Frank Lautenberg is positioned to become the first five-term U.S. Senator in New Jersey history

Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 52%-32% lead in his bid for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, and 72% of voters haven't heard of his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, according to a poll released this morning by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

“Senator Lautenberg has not had to run hard this year,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. “He’s caught in the updraft of enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential candidate and frustration with the Bush administration.”

Democrat Frank Lautenberg has an 11 point lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in his bid for a fifth term in the United States Senate and has passed the magic 50% mark, according to a new Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll released tonight.  Among likely voters and including leaners, Lautenberg is ahead 51%-40%.

Lautenberg also had an 11 point lead, 46%-35%, in a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released two days ago.

Barack Obama's lead in New Jersey has shrunk to six percentage points, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll: Getty Images Photo
The contest for New Jersey’s fifteen electoral votes has narrowed to a six-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  Obama leads McCain 47%-41%.  An August 13 Quinnipiac University poll had Obama ahead by ten points, 51%-41%.

Gov. Jon Corzine's poll numbers took a hit after his State of the State addressGov. Jon Corzine’s State of the State address proposing a major toll hike has caused more New Jerseyans to say the state is headed on the wrong track, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released today.  Just 26% of voters say the state is headed in the right direction, down from 33% earlier this month, and 63% say New Jersey is headed on the wrong track – up from 55%. 

“In fact the governor is telling voters that the state is on the wrong track,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll, “and at least this part of his message is getting through.”

Fairleigh Dickinson University's Public Mind poll has no comment on recent criticisms of their polling by PoliticsNJ.com, except for a brief e-mail from Professor Peter Woolley, the FDU polls: "I like to limit my interaction with hooded men -- or women. You are in the wrongful position of attempting to hold others accountable while avoiding accountability yourself." That hasn't stopped Wooley in the past.

Twelve days ago, PoliticsNJ.com asked Wooley to explain how one of the U.S. Senate campaigns had obtained their polling data the day before it was released to the public. That promoted him to send this response: "I already forwarded your e-mail to my top two suspects with a note saying such a thing is 'unacceptable.' But you can help me narrow it down to one person. If you would like that new information to be 'just between us' it can be."

This website told Wooley that an FDU poll associate, lobbyist Rick Thigpen, coordinated his analysis of the Senate campaign poll with Robert Menendez's campaign staff and provided the Menendez campaign with polling numbers the day before they were released to the public. To Wooley, "just between us" meant telling Thigpen that PoliticsNJ.com was his source.

In the past, PoliticsNJ.com has taken issue with several aspects of the FDU polling operation:

* Old Numbers: FDU staggers the release of their data, rolling out the results of one section of the same poll over an extended period of time. It's not a bad way to generate more media attention for their poling, but at the expense of having the most current possible data. For example, the U.S. Senate poll they released on November 2 was in the field from October 25-31 -- so some of their data had been obtained as much as nine days earlier. (That's a long time in the final week of a statewide campaign.) A survey on eminent domain released on November 13 used that was as much as twenty days old.

* Appearance of Conflict: Thigpen, who has been affiliated with FDU since 2001, was among the Democratic operatives who participated in regular conference calls with the Menendez campaign to determine a media spin strategy during the U.S. Senate race. Thigpen was also among the Democrats on regular spin calls for Jon Corzine's campaign, at the same time he was providing analysis for FDU's polling of the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. For Republican analysis, FDU occasionally uses Michael Torpey, who is Thigpen's business partner. This website also questioned the use of Trenton lobbyists who have business dealings with the Governor's office to analyze polls concerning the Governor's approval ratings. Thigpen was effusive in his praise of Corzine in an FDU poll conducted after the state budget was passed, and even the Republican Torpey said that Corzine "should be relatively happy with the data in this survey."

Methodology: FDU does not poll registered voters; they make random phone calls and identify likely voters from that pool. One Senate campaign staffer said: "We honestly didn't put a lot of stock in any of the public polls -- each one had its own flaws."

The Kean campaign said they had not been given any FDU polling numbers in advance, and suggested that providing the data to one campaign and not others gave the Democrats an unfair advantage. PoliticsNJ.com strongly stands behind our report -- and our source -- that FDU had considered terminating their relationship with Thigpen and pays little regard to any public comments by Wooley to the contrary.