Douglas Forrester

Former NFL star Jon Runyan has already fumbled: he put out a statement expressing his interest in running for Congress without first talking to the most powerful Republican in his district, Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore.  Gilmore, a superstar since he delivered a 70,000-vote margin for Gov.-elect Christopher Christie last week, has reacted poorly to demonstrations of disrespect like this in the past.  In 2005, Gilmore gave GOP gubernatorial candidate Douglas Forrester a list of calls he needed to make to secure support in Ocean County.  To Gilmore's annoyance, Forrester never made most of the calls; Gilmore instead gave the Ocean County GOP line to Robert Schroeder, who diligently courted local Republicans.  Forrester won the primary, but never got Gilmore fully engaged; he won Ocean County by about a third of what Christie did.

Despite his public flirtation with Republican Christopher Christie, State Sen. Brian Stack appears to have delivered for the gubernatorial candidate of his party, Democrat Jon Corzine.  In Union City, where Stack is mayor and heads the local Democratic organization, Corzine beat Christie 8,300 to 2,191 (77%-20%).  Four years ago, Corzine beat Republican Douglas Forrester 9,385 to 2,459 (79%-20%).  While turnout was down, Christie actually got less votes in Union City than Forrester did.  Some of the credit for this goes to U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, who leaned on Stack to stay entirely within the Democratic fold.

Gov. Jon Corzine has raised $24.1 million and spent $23.6 million on the general election campaign so far, according to 11-day pre-election reports filed with the Election Law Enforcement Commission. 

Of Corzine's total raised, $22.6 million is from his own pocket.

Republican gubernatorial Christopher Christie has maxed out on matching funds, raising a total of $11.7 million and spending $8.8 million, while independent Christopher Daggett has raised $1.3 million and spent $1.2 million. 

Christie has the most cash on hand, at $3.6 million.  That sum will not grow, however, since Christie is bound by a cap on campaign funds that Corzine, who does not participate in the public financing program, is not.  Daggett has $292,495 on hand and Corzine has $412,410.

The totals do not include heavy spending by outside groups or money raised or spent by the candidates after October 20.

The William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton College is in the field with a poll on the gubernatorial race from a South Jersey point of view, and plans to release the results on Friday.   Stockton and pollster Zogby International are polling a battleground region of the state: districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 9.  In 2005, Democrat Jon Corzine beat Republican Douglas Forrester 52%-48 in these five districts.

A September 21 poll had Republican Christopher Christie leading Corzine in this region by seven percentage points, 37%-30%, with 9% for independent Christopher Daggett. 

Stockton also polled State Assembly races in those five districts. Most interesting: Democrats had a big lead in the hotly contested first district race, and that newly-elected Assemblywoman Celeste Riley (D-Bridgeton) was running third in District 3 - a place where state Republicans have virtually conceded.

From the Stockton poll:

So far, independent Christopher Daggett looks like a one hit wonder. Since his win in the first gubernatorial debate and last Sunday's endorsement by the Star-Ledger, he has now lost one debate and five other daily newspapers have endorsed someone else. 

By endorsing Daggett last week, the Star-Ledger lost their spot as a sponsor of Friday night's TV debate, and their columnist, Editorial Page Editor-elect Tom Moran, had to back out of being a panelist.  The word at the state's largest newspaper was that they would have held their endorsement had someone on the editorial staff realized that they would be in violation of a state law on official debate sponsorships.  And some insiders wonder if they still would have backed Daggett had they seen his performance in the last debate.

Daggett, a former state Environmental Protection Commissioner, has polled between 9% and 14% in recent independent polls.  He has also survived the intense scrutiny that the media - including PolitickerNJ.com - usually places on leading statewide candidates.  The Star-Ledger endorsement came without their usual vetting, perhaps because one of their premier investigators is now investigating for the Corzine campaign.

Republican Christopher Christie and Gov. Jon Corzine are tied in the endorsement derby, 2-2.  But that number might be a little misleading, since both of his endorsements have come from Gannett-owned newspapers.  Corzine, who doesn't particularly care for unfriendly forums, skipped the Gannett editorial board meeting last  Corzine has been endorsed by the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer - prestigious, but about as New Jersey as the Giants and Jets.

The two newspapers that endorsed Christie - the Home News Tribune and the Courier-News- endorsed Republican Douglas Forrester for Governor against Corzine in 2005.  In that race, Corzine had the support of the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Star-Ledger.  So Corzine is down one.  (In '05, nine dailies backed Forrester, while eight went for Corzine, who won the election by ten percentage points). 

Christie has not yet secured the endorsement of a newspaper that endorsed Corzine in 2005, and Corzine has not been endorsed by any newspaper that did not back him four years ago.  Of the newspapers who have endorsed so far, none have endorsed Corzine in all three of his statewide campaigns.

Corzine's newspaper endorsement record:

Gov. Jon Corzine is outspending his Republican opponent by a 3-1 margin in his bid for re-election to a second term, but he's still spending less than he did when he ran four years ago.

Maurice Carroll, who runs the Quinnipiac University poll, doesn't read much into that.

"Whatever they tell him he'll have to spend, he'll spend. Which I guess is good for the economy.  It pays for a lot of consultants, television stations are getting rich," he said.

Corzine has raised and spend $16.8 million so far - a bit down from the $20.1 million he raised and $18.6 million he spent as of the same point in his last campaign.  

That's complicated by one key difference. In a late September, 2005 Quinnipiac poll, Corzine led Douglas Forrester by four points.  Now, in the latest Quinnipiac poll, he trails Republican Christopher Christie by four.

But Corzine faced an opponent with more cash in Forrester, a wealthy businessman who opted not to take part in the public financing program and ultimately spent almost $20 million of his own money in the general election.  By contrast, Christie's spending is capped at $10.9 million because he's taking part in the public financing program. 

Carroll's polls show Corzine succeeding in tarnishing Christie's image, but Corzine's approval and favorability ratings have remained mired in the 38%-42% range.  He doesn't think that Corzine is concerned with boosting those numbers.

"It's just like with all you reporters.  The only number he's really interested in is the basic head to head. And in that, Corzine's doing better than he has in quite a while," Carroll said.

Washington, DC-based political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said he was surprised that Corzine was not spending more than he did in previous races, since he's been behind in 44 out of the last 45 polls independent public opinion polls. 

"Given all the numbers we were throwing around about how much Corzine would spend, having spent less than four years ago is something of a surprise," he said.

The two major party candidates for governor are not likely to agree on a rather complex issue: does the private investment firm Texas Pacific Group (TPG) have a clear connection to TPG-Axon, a hedge fund run out of the same office?

Gov. Jon Corzine has some of his personal fortune invested with TPG-Axon, which sounds similar to TPG.  Corzine maintains that the two companies have separate identities, and that it is unfair to accuse him of having a financial interest in casinos when it's TPG, not TPG-Axon, that invests in the gaming industry.   Republican Christopher Christie thinks that two companies run by the same people sharing the same office are essentially the same company.

The 2009 campaign includes other allegations where both sides have very different views of the world.  And New Jersey politics has a history of similar unsolved mysteries:

During the 2005 gubernatorial campaign, a complaint was filed against Republican Douglas Forrester alleging that his ownership of an insurance company that did business in New Jersey meant that he could not contribute to political campaigns, including his own.  At the time, Forrester was self-funding his campaign against Democrat Jon Corzine.

FormerGreen Party U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Afran filed a complaint against Forrester with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.  Forrester asked the state Department of Banking and Insurance to investigate and provide him with a ruling. The probe quickly became a hot Democratic issue at a time when polls showed the race to be relatively competitive.

Forrester argued that there was no legal violation, saying that the company, Heartland Fidelity Insurance Co., was based in Washington, D.C. and subject to regulators there.  He said he was following the letter of the law.  Democrats took a broader approach, and Corzine said Forrester's actions were "inconsistent with the spirit of the law."

Some interesting regional numbers from the Neighborhood Research poll in gubernatorial race between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christopher Christie, and Independent Christopher Daggett, as compared to Corzine's 2005 campaign against GOP candidate Douglas Forrester:

• Corzine leads Christie 58%-20% in Essex and Hudson.  Four years ago, Corzine won Essex and Hudson with 75% of the vote.  The two counties gave him a plurality of 147,163 votes - nearly two-thirds of his total margin statewide.  Essex and Hudson make up 13% of the total statewide vote. Daggett gets 5%.

• Corzine and Christie are tied with 38% in Bergen and Passaic.  Corzine won those two counties with 58% of the vote in 2005.  Bergen and Passaic account for 16% of the votes cast statewide.  Seven percent of the voters are for Daggett.

• In Mercer, Middlesex and Union, Christie has a 30%-27% lead.  In 2005, Corzine won 60% of the vote in those three counties, which make up 18% of the statewide votes. Daggett is at 9%.

• In Monmouth and Ocean (16% of the statewide vote), Christie leads 50%-25%.  Four years ago, Corzine won 45% of the vote in Monmouth and Ocean. Daggett gets 12%.

• Christie has a narrow 39%-35% lead in South Jersey, where Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and Salem counties make up 21% of all the votes cast in the last gubernatorial election.  In 2005, Corzine won these seven counties with 56% of the vote. Daggett, who has not purchased Philadelphia TV, is at 3%.

• In Northwest New Jersey, the most Republican part of the state, Christie leads 38%-25% -- a number that GOP pollster Rick Shaftan described as "underperforming."  Four years ago, Forrester beat Corzine 59%-41% in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties (16% of statewide ballots cast).  Daggett is at 10%.

Neighborhood Research is a Republican polling firm.

A North Carolina-based Democratic polling is asking Democratic voters if they would prefer Newark Mayor Cory Booker or U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) as their candidate for Governor.  The Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey is expected to be released on Thursday.

A PPP poll has Gov. Jon Corzine trailing Republican Christopher Christie, 44%-35%.

Five weeks before the 2002 general election, Democrats switched their candidate after Republican Douglas Forrester took a commanding lead in the race for United States Senator against the incumbent, Robert Torricelli.  Corzine said in July that he will not get out of the race.