Doug Forrester

Forrester: Fight Against Corruption is Fight Against the Old Boys' Network

Women for Forrester Rally at Douglass College

Gubernatorial nominee Doug Forrester today rallied at Douglass College with women from across the state. Forrester was joined by State Senator Diane Allen, Douglass College student government members, and alumnae of the college as he discussed his agenda for promoting women in his administration and affirmed his support for Douglass College.

The consensus among insiders from both parties is that as of Monday morning, Democrats are ahead -- literally. Various County Clerks throughout the state are reporting near-record numbers of people who have already voted via absentee ballot, perhaps a result of a new law that allows unrestricted absentee voting. Jon Corzine's campaign made a huge push to secure absentee votes. Doug Forrester's campaign says they did as well, but a statewide mailing included the 2004 version of the absentee ballot application -- the one that required voters to state the reason why they could not vote in person.

Forrester for Change

Corzine for more of the same

On the last day before the gubernatorial election, Doug Forrester continued his Take Back New Jersey tour, joined by New York Governor George Pataki. Speaking with people in Iselin, Woodbridge, Ridgewood, New Brunswick, Westfield, Toms River, and Hamilton, Forrester reminded voters why he is running for governor.

There was a funny scene after the Gubernatorial debate on Saturday night. Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester stayed in the studio to speak to the press. Forrester went first, so Corzine sat on a coffee table at the corner of the set, while waiting his turn. The Senator was spotted by two of the people who want his current gig -- Bob Menendez and Rob Andrews -- who both made a beeline to Corzine. They both stood there, Menendez to his right, Andrews to his left, trying to impress the man who might name the next United States Senator.

Democrat Jon Corzine remains the strong favorite to become Governor of New Jersey. Corzine has enjoyed a comfortable lead over Republican Douglas Forrester throughout the campaign and there has yet to be an independent poll that shows Forrester ahead. Statements made last week by Corzine's former wife may affect the margin of the race, but probably not the outcome. Similarly, Corzine's gaffe over the legal drinking age in Saturday's debate appears to have occurred too late to hurt him. Some Republicans say Forrester, who wresteld with the decision to use Joanne Corzine's quote in a television ad, failed to hit Corzine hard enough to take the lead.

All eighty State Assembly seats are up tomorrow and Democrats are a lock to maintain control of the lower house -- the only question remaining is whether they can improve on their current 47-33 majority.

Democrats are certain to pick up the 36th district seat held since 1992 by Republican Paul DiGaetano, a former Assembly Majority Leader who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in the June primary. The best chance for a Democratic pickup may be in the 2nd district, where former Atlantic City Mayor James Whelan has run a strong campaign against GOP incumbent Kirk Conover. Both parties say this race is up in the air, and both sides say Conover's running mate, incumbent Frank Blee, looks to be in stronger shape.

The GOP is eying possible pickups in the traditionally Republican 12th district, where Democrats Michael Panter and Robert Morgan won two years ago after the race became a referendum on the ethics of John Bennett, then the Co-Senate President. Both sides say Panter and Morgan are in a toss-up with Republicans Jennifer Beck, a Red Bank Councilwoman, and Declan O'Scanlon, a Councilman from Little Silver.

Democrats put some last minute cash into the 1st district, where Republican Assemblyman Jack Gibson faces Nelson Albano, an advocate for tougher drunk driving laws. The Democratic incumbent, Jefferson Van Drew, is a shoo-in for re-election to a third term.

One of the most hotly contested races has been in the 11th district, where Democrats have mounted a strong campaign against GOP incumbents Steve Corodemus and Sean Kean. The Democratic challengers, Matt Doherty and Jim Reilly, may have run one of the strongest campaigns in the state, but Corodemus and Kean have fought back in this Republican-leaning district.

The campaign to oust freshman Republican Bill Baroni in the 14th district never really materialized. Baroni, the only Republican to unseat an incumbent two years ago, has secured key labor endorsements in his campaign against Dan Benson, a Hamilton Councilman. Three-term Democrat Linda Greenstein continues to be the favorite in her campaign against former South Brunswick Police Chief Michael Paquette.

Republicans are likely to hold their two seats in the 13th district, where incumbent Samuel Thompson and Monmouth County Freeholder Amy Handlin face Democrats Bill Flynn, who served in the Assembly from 1974 to 1986, and newcomer Michael Dasaro. Handlin defeated longtime Assemblyman Joe Azzolina in the GOP primary. Democrats are expected to hold their two seats in the 3rd district, where incumbents John Burzichelli and Doug Fisher face GOP challengers Phil Rhudy, the Mayor of Harrison, and James Zee.

Jon Corzine 52%
Doug Forrester 45%

Jon Corzine 43%
Doug Forrester 37%

Jon Corzine 48%
Doug Forrester 44%

Over the weekend, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind re-interviewed likely voters who were undecided in the past two weeks. Based on those interviews, PublicMind cannot say that undecided voters are breaking decisively for either major candidate; however, undecided Democratic voters break clearly for Corzine; undecided Republican voters break clearly for Forrester. “In a race that’s been extremely negative, people will vote by default for their usual party preference or just stay home,� said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. “But note too that all the polls suggest a repeat of last year’s racial divide: that the Republican candidate runs competitively or ahead of the Democrat among white voters and runs way behind among non-white voters.�

by David P. Rebovicb

As Election Day approaches I, like most New Jerseyans, remain concerned that the campaigns have been too negative and uninformative. While Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester have recently been listing their positions on issues other than just property tax relief and ethics, there's not a lot that can be said in thirty or sixty second television and radio ads. If the most annoying aspect of the campaigns has been the constant attacks launched by both candidates, the most disappointing has been the failure of the candidates to discuss issues in detail.

Congressman Rob Andrews has a poll conducted by Bill Clinton's pollster, Stanley Greenberg, that says Jon Corzine leads Doug Forrester by twelve points, 48%-36%.

Date: November 5, 2005

To: Congressman Rob Andrews

From: Stan Greenberg and Al Quinlan
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

RE: STATUS OF CONTEST FOR GOVERNOR

Jon Corzine maintains a healthy lead over Doug Forrester going into the final weekend of the campaign for Governor. A statewide survey conducted November 2-3 of 600 likely voters indicates Forrester's standing is particularly weak and Corzine maintains advantages in both personal standing and electoral support.

Corzine leads Forrester 48 to 36 percent in a survey in which half of the interviews were conducted Thursday evening after the most recent ads aired. Interviews conducted that evening indicated no significant shift in the race.

Corzine maintains a solid hold on his base of Democrats and leads Forrester among independents.

Forrester’s standing is particularly weak, and his negatives outweigh his positives by 10 percentage points. Corzine, on the other hand, has higher positives than negatives.

This survey of 600 likely statewide voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent.