Dennis McNerney

It was literally minutes after Bergen County Republicans won two freeholder seats that they started eyeing another prize.

"Now for the big one: county executive," said one Republican operative who often works in Bergen County from the Chris Christie Election Night victory party in Parsippany.

Two days after winning two freeholder seats in Bergen County - a prayed for shot in the arm for a county party that has spent the last several years on the brink of irrelevance- the talk in Bergen County Republican circles is who the party will run for the top office in 2010.

"A number of people have expressed interest.  I'm hearing a lot of it informally. No one has officially come to me," said Bergen County Republican Chairman Bob Yudin, whose party could stand to receive a cash infusion now that donors see that they can win elections.

So far, three names pop up: County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, who ran in the 2006 Republican primary for the office but was defeated on the right by Todd Caliguire, who went on to lose the general election; Fair Lawn Councilman Edward Trawinski, who yesterday just won a second consecutive (and third overall) term in that heavily Democratic town; and former Hackensack Mayor Jack Zisa. 

Since the Republicans appear to have some momentum, other potential candidates are expected to come forward.  And with a GOP governor, Bergen Republicans will have an easier time raising money.

"It's a different ball game now that we've demonstrated we can win a couple county seats," said state Sen. Gerald Cardinale (R-Demarest), who has taken an active role in behind-the-scenes party politics.

Assemblyman David Russo (R-Ridgewood), long rumored to be interested in the post, told PolitickerNJ.com that he will not run.

Some Democrats think Joseph Ferriero's criminal conviction puts Bergen County Executive Dennis C. McNerney in danger of losing party support if he seeks re-election to a third term next year.  A Ferriero protégé, McNerney was handpicked by the powerful party leader to run in 2002 - now Democrats, protective of their control over county government, might gently nudge McNerney to retire.

Democrats will be more likely to dump McNerney if they lose Freeholder seats next month, and almost certain to replace him if Republicans win the race for governor.  But even a victory by Gov. Jon Corzine could push McNerney out; then State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), a Ferriero foe, would be Lt. Governor, and her clout among local Democrats would surely increase.  Look for Corzine and Weinberg to play a role in picking a new Democratic County Chairman after Michael Kasparian, who was picked by Ferriero as his replacement last year, steps down next June.

McNerney calls for the resignation of Superintendent Robert Aloia, head of the Technical and Special Services school districts, follows the lead of Councilman Rob Hermansen.

If the federal corruption trial of Joseph Ferriero ends in an acquittal, many party leaders expect that he will run again for Bergen County Democratic Chairman next June, or earlier.  Ferriero was forced to resign that post following his 2008 indictment.  That could cause quite a civil war just as Democrats are gearing up for the re-election of County Executive Dennis C. McNerney.

The conventional wisdom is that Ferriero's successor, Michael Kasparian, has no plans to seek re-election.  The job is not what he imagined it would be, he has struggled to raise money, and sources say his interest in staying on is limited at best. 

While Ferriero had a lock on the County Committee before his indictment (he won his last race with 80% of the vote), Democratic sources say he would face a real fight to return.  His chances could be reduced is his rival, State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), is elected Lt. Governor.  Weinberg would almost certainly push Jon Corzine to intervene, as she did when she ran for Byron Baer's open State Senate seat against Ken Zisa, Ferriero's choice.

Bergen County Democrats continue to list Sheriff Leo McGuire as a top candidate for County Executive next year, if Dennis McNerney does not seek re-election to a third term.  McNerney's political future is somewhat dependant on the outcome of former Democratic County Chairman Joseph Ferriero's federal corruption trial.  While McNerney has not been accused on any wrong doing, some insiders say that his extraordinarily close ties to Ferriero might be a reason why Democrats ask him to find another job.

How do Sheriff's fare in their bids for higher office? Typically a Sheriff declines to give up the security of their office -- the last elected county law enforcement officials to lose re-election were Democrat James McGettigan in Atlantic County in 2008, Republican Joel Trella in Bergen County in 2004 and Democrat James Forcinito in Cumberland County in 1999. Despite the traditional popularity of a Sheriff, their successes in running for another office tend to be mixed. Republican Bill McDowell was elected Bergen County Executive in 1986 and Democrat Thomas D'Alessio captured the Essex County Executive post in 1990. Both served just one term: McDowell walked away on his own, D'Alessio taken out in handcuffs.

“If $187,000 in salary is not enough of an incentive to work at a high school, then I don’t know what is,”

Some very optimistic Bergen County Republicans are thinking ahead to 2010, when two-term County Executive Dennis McNerney is up for re-election.  The GOP believes they could have a shot at the post they held from 1986 to 2003, if New Jersey has a Republican governor.  And some Democrats say that McNerney could be weakened if federal prosecutors convict former Democratic County Chairman Joseph Ferriero after his corruption trial this fall.

The Republicans who receive the most attention as potential County Executive candidates are: County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, Assemblyman David Russo (R-Ridgewood), and former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan.  If the Bergen County Democratic Organization pulls their support from McNerney, look for Surrogate Michael Dressler, Sheriff Leo McGuire, and outgoing Englewood Mayor Michael Wildes to be among the top candidates.

State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck) never had a cozy relationship with the bulk of the Bergen County Democratic Organization, but County Executive Dennis McNerney says she’s by far his favorite choice for lieutenant governor.

“I think Bergen County definitely needs representation. It would be great if we had more representation in Trenton, and lieutenant governor --  since it’s the first one -- it should start off in Bergen County,” he said.  

McNerney was tight with the county’s former Democratic chairman, Joe Ferriero, whose feuds with Weinberg lasted until Ferriero's September indictment.  In 2007, McNerney's appointment by the Governor to a commission charged with studying small town consolidation was held up by Weinberg, who was upset at state Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Wood-ridge) for refusing to support her preferred pick for the state Board of Education.  

But McNerney, who grew up in Weiberg's home town of Teaneck, said that he’s never had a problem with her.

“Where is the county executive on this obvious boondoggle? Why didn’t he call a halt to the project and examine the costs?  Has he been influenced by the donations of Mr. Sanzari and PMK executives?” asked Yudin

Dennis McNerney has won four consecutive races in New Jersey's largest county, but he's not being considered at all for Lt. Governor.

Dennis McNerney won 61% of the vote when he was re-elected to a second term in New Jersey's largest counties, but Democratic insiders say there is no real consideration of the Bergen County Executive as a possible running mate for Gov. Jon Corzine.  Some Democrats say his close ties to former Democratic County Chairman Joseph Ferriero ends his viability as a statewide candidate.  But there are a few Democrats who suggest that McNerney, who has won four consecutive countywide elections, lacks the gravitas to run for Lt. Governor.

Bergen County made up 11% of the total votes cast in the 2005 gubernatorial election, and the county is considered a must-win for a Republican candidate.  No Republican has ever won a statewide election in New Jersey without carrying Bergen County, and it is difficult to come up with math that shows a GOP win without it.