Declan O'Scanlon

TRENTON – However subdued his variations on this year’s most infamous catch phrase, “tough economic times,” members of both parties are prepared to hear Gov. Jon Corzine’s budget address tomorrow as a starter’s gun blast in the 2009 gubernatorial and legislative races.

Already exhilarated by Republican gubernatorial frontrunner Chris Christie’s argument that Corzine and the Democrats must accept responsibility for the state budget (which swelled from $25 billion to $33 billion in nine years) and not hide within the folds of an international economic crisis, the GOP wants to capitalize on a dismal tide statewide, which last year buried John McCain at the national level in a narrative of poor fiscal management by the Bush administration.

“It’s too late,” confirmed Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield) of Corzine. “You’ve been the governor. If the economy was doing great you would take credit for it. When it’s not doing well, you’re stuck with the hand you’ve been dealt. If the state ain’t getting better, end of story."

Presumably no longer able to rely on their most beloved if unwitting ally – President George W. Bush – to deepsix the Republican Party, New Jersey Democrats face a humbling nine point deficit in the gubernatorial contest, according to last week’s Fairleigh Dickinson Poll. 

Chris Christie

After leaving Essex County on Tuesday night, GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie drove to Monmouth County, where he stood beside Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Colts Neck) at a private home fundraiser in Colts Neck.

About 100 people attended the event.

Casagrande’s running mate, Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon (R-Little Silver) had a fundraiser of his own last week as the two 12th District Republican lawmakers prepare for the possibility of Democrats running candidates against them in the 2009 general election. 

So far, the Democrats do not appear to have coalesced around a pair of challengers here in the 12th – a battleground in the 2007 election as state Sen. Jennifer Beck (R-Red Bank) toppled Dick Codey-backed Democrat Ellen Karcher despite being outspent over 5-1. 

Manalapan Mayor Michelle Roth

Democratic Party sources say one possible candidate for the Assembly in the 12th District is Manalapan Mayor Michelle Roth.

At this point, she’s not revealing her plans.

“No comment,” said Roth, when contacted today by PolitickerNJ.com.

A Wall Street veteran, Roth started a local investor relations consulting firm in 1987, a year after moving to Manalapan. First elected to a three-year term on the Manalapan Township Committee in 2005, Roth won reelection last year. 

Up for reelection this year in the 12th are two freshmen Republicans, Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon (R-Little Silver) and Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Colts Neck).

East Windsor Mayor Janice Mironov

Democratic Party members have approached veteran East Windsor Mayor Janice Mironov about the possibility of her running for the Assembly in the 12th District this year, Mironov confirmed to PolitickerNJ.com.

But, “I don’t have any plans to do that,” said Mironov, who has served 14 years as mayor of the east side Mercer County town.

“I love being mayor,” she added. “I never close any doors. Nobody does that. But I have no plans at this point. My residents have been very good to me.”

12TH District legislators Senator Jennifer Beck, Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon and Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande today urged the legislature to pass A-1444 and S-686, which would change current law by forcing any public official convicted of corruption to forfeit all their public pensions and applying to all public officials, regardless of when their crimes took place.

MARLBORO – Mayor Jon Hornik and his Republican guests from the 12th Legislative District look like old pals at this charity ball the mayor throws on a Saturday night, as revelers groove on the dance floor at the Battleground Country Club.

The cover band strains of “You’re just too good to be true” sweep through the ballroom and the mayor floats happily among guests, including state Sen. Jennifer Beck (R-Monmouth), Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon (R-Little Silver) and Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Colts Neck).

“Come on, that’s over,” a smiling Hornik ribs O’Scanlon about the Nov. 4th presidential election between Democratic frontrunner Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain.

There are now more Democrats than Republicans in Monmouth County, and the GOP is in danger of losing control of the Freeholder Board for the first time since 1986, but state Democrats remain lukewarm over the prospects of playing for State Assembly seats in Districts 11, 12 and 13 in 2009.  Nearly six months before filing day, Democrats are uncertain about investing money to oust any of the six Republican incumbents in districts where they have invested heavily in recent years.

Indeed, twelfth district Democrats won a Senate seat and two Assembly seats in 2003 after ethics charges were hurled at longtime incumbent John Bennett, then the Co-President of the State Senate.  But the GOP won back one of the Assembly seats two years later, and seats in the Senate and Assembly in 2007.  They have been unable to crack the Republican hold on Districts 11, where an aggressive campaign in 2005 fell short, and in District 13, where they came within a few hundred votes of ousting an incumbent five years ago.

Now, it appears Democrats are prepared to wait patiently for 2011, with the hope that they can prevail during the legislative redistricting process and secure a better district.  One idea that seems to be receiving universal consideration by Democratic legislative leaders is to place Jennifer Beck, a freshman Republican State Senator from Red Bank, in a district with either Sean Kean or Joseph Kyrillos, who represent the 11th and 12th districts in the Senate, respectively.   Democrats want to add part of Middlesex County, perhaps strongly Democratic Monroe and Plainsboro, to the 12th and remove some Republican towns. 

U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie and State Sen. Jennifer Beck (R-Rumson) met privately this summer to discuss the 2009 campaign for Governor and specifically the possibility of Beck running on Christie's ticket for Lieutenant Governor, according to two key Monmouth County Republicans who say they heard this from Beck.  Christie did not offer the number two spot on his ticket to the freshman State Senator from Monmouth County, the sources say, but did indicate he was likely to enter the race for Governor next year.  

Beck, who ousted a Democratic Assemblyman in 2005 and a Democratic State Senator in 2007, has appeared on most short lists as a possible candidate for Lt. Governor next year.  He Senate seat is not up until 2011.

RED BANK - In quintessential New Jersey fashion, potential First Lady Cindy McCain made her first solo public campaign stop today at a diner.

With State Sens. Jennifer Beck (R-Red Bank) and Bill Baroni (R-Hamilton) at her side, McCain shook hands and briefly conversed with patrons at the Broadway Diner in Red Bank, sharing the usual niceties we’ve come to expect at such events.

On her way out, McCain took one question from reporters about whether her husband, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, actually had a shot at carrying a state no GOP presidential candidate has carried since 1988.

“Absolutely. We’ve not written off New Jersey,” she said. “This is a very important state. We’re going to be up very late on November 4th, and New Jersey is a very important part of that. We intend to be here quite a bit before the election. I’m happy to be here on a great day. It was stormy a few days ago so maybe I brought the sunshine with me.”

Democrats are anxious to reclaim the 12th legislative district, where Jennifer Beck ousted Ellen Karcher in the 2007 Senate race, and where a pair of Republicans occupies the two Assembly seats. The plan isn’t as much about 2009 (the conventional wisdom is that freshmen incumbents Declan O’Scanlon and Caroline Casagrande will be tough to beat next year) as it is about 2011. Legislative districts will be redrawn after the 2010 census.