Debate

After the first gubernatorial debate, campaign officials from both parties said that independent Christopher Daggett was the winner, albeit not for attribution.  Daggett's debate victory provided his campaign with substantial momentum - he got a huge amount of free media attention, maybe a slight bump in the polls, and tremendous boost of self-confidence (although that didn't seem to come with increased campaign contributions).  The debate win likely helped him score a second victory: the Star-Ledger, New Jersey's largest newspaper, endorsed his candidacy.

But now, one debate later, these same Democrats and Republicans who had tipped their hats to him, think he was the biggest loser in a race that provided no real winner.  Expectations were high; after all, Daggett was the great debater, the guy who could put Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in their places, the man who would show the state why the two party system was a failure.

Instead, the D and R strategists who were so willing to award the first debate for Daggett thought he came off a little whiney and a lot pompous.  He lacked some of the specifics of Debate #1.  And he cracked too many jokes - it was sort of watching some comedy club failure trying to pretend to be Dick Codey.

Two other things came out of discussions with major party strategists:  they think the man who hired fat and bald actors has no standing to criticize negative campaigns, and they are convinced that Daggett was unable to name a single Justice of the United States Supreme Court, even though panelists gave him several chances.

The Star-Ledger endorsement of independent Christopher Daggett could violate state regulations that prohibit debate sponsors from endorsing candidates before the completion of the debate.  In their application to sponsor the October 16 gubernatorial debate, the Star-Ledger agreed to not endorse a candidate for Governor until after the debate was over.

The New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC), in their published regulations on gubernatorial debate sponsorship (N.J.A.C. 19:25-15.50) states that "to be eligible for selection by the Commission to sponsor one or both of the gubernatorial general election debates, an organization... must not have endorsed any candidate in the pending general election for the office of Governor and must agree not to make any such endorsement until the completion of any debate sponsored by the organization."

Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, Republican Christopher Christie and Daggett are set to debate on Friday at William Paterson University.  The debate will be streamed live on FoxNews.com, and aired on Saturday on WXTF-TV Channel 29 in Philadelphia and on Sunday on WOR-TV in New York.  The Star-Ledger, The Record and the Herald News, which all share content on state politics, are also sponsors.

October 7, 2009 – Fifth District Freeholder Candidate and blueberry farmer Sam Mento condemned his opponent’s bad faith negotiation in arranging a nonpartisan public debate and asks if this is how Freeholder Curcio conducts public business on the Atlantic County Freeholder Board. 

The first gubernatorial debate between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christopher Christie, and independent Christopher Daggett will air on New Jersey Network (NJN) tonight at 8:00 PM.  The 90 minute debate will be broadcast live from NJN Studios in Trenton. 

NJN News anchor Jim Hooker will moderate the debate, and candidates will take questions from three panelists: Michael Aron of NJN News; Bob Ingle of Gannett New Jersey; and Cynthia Burton of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The debate will be simulcast on NJN Public Radio and will be available on the web at njn.net. The debate will also be aired on C-Span.

PolitickerNJ.com's Matt Friedman will live blog during the debate at www.PolitickerNJ.com.

Republican Christopher Christie has accepted an invitation to debate on WBGO FM, a Newark-based jazz radio station and the source of public policy information to tens of New Jerseyans.    The October 22 forum will feature Gov. Jon Corzine, independent Christopher Daggett, and Christie.  Christie and Daggett have now accepted all debate invitations, including the two officially sanctioned debates run by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.  Corzine has still not said if he'll accept debate invitations from two venues with larger audiences: a League of Women Voters debate on the ABC network affiliates in New York and Philadelphia (who have offered to pre-empt Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune so the debate could air from 7-8 PM on a weeknight), and NJ 101.5, the state's largest and most politically influential radio station.

Gov. Jon Corzine will not take part in a gubernatorial debate on NJ 101.5

Gov. Jon Corzine will not participate in a gubernatorial debate on New Jersey 101.5, according to Eric Scott, the news director.  Scott says he received a letter from the Corzine campaign this morning.

"Jon Corzine has now become the first candidate for statewide office in almost twenty years to turn his back on our one-million listeners by refusing to  appear on New Jersey 101.5 to talk directly to New Jersey voters about the issues that are important to them," Scott told PolitickerNJ.com. 

Scott says that Corzine participated in multiple programs and debate son 101.5 as a candidate for U.S. Senator in 2000 and for Governor in 2005.

"In this election, however, Jon Corzine appears to have made the strategic decision to pretend that we simply do not exist," said Scott, who noted that today's letter, dated September 9, was the first communication from the campaign since the debate invitation was extended in July.

Corzine will participate in two official debates and has agreed to a debate on a Newark-based jazz radio station.  But he has not decided if he will take part in a League of Women Voters debate to be aired on ABC-TV's New York and Philadelphia network affiliates.

Republican Christopher Christie and Independent Christopher Daggett have agreed to debate on 101.5. 

The station is among the sponsors of an official debate for Lt. Governor candidates that will include Corzine's running mate, State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck).

It is more than 2 weeks away, but I believe the first gubernatorial debate of the general election on October 1st looms large as a potential turning point in the race.

In contests for open seats, debates do little more than reinforce partisan allegiances.  Absent a knock-out punch by one of the candidates, they usually don't move independent or undecided voters to any considerable degree.

In close incumbent races,  however, debates can strongly boost challengers.  On the national level, in 1980, Ronald Reagan started breaking away from incumbent President Carter when voters saw for themselves an "acceptable" alternative to an unpopular incumbent, one who was genial, friendly, and unlikely to fit the stereotype that was being painted of him by the Democratic campaign.

Likewise, JFK's performance against incumbent Vice-President Richard Nixon in the first televised Presidential debate in 1960 was an important ingredient in JFK's strategy of convincing the public he was of "presidential" timbre.  By most accounts, he won the debate among those who watched it on TV, as he compared favorably with Nixon.

The October 1st  debate is important because it will be the first time that incumbent Governor Corzine is exposed to the electorate without the benefit - and crutch - of being shielded by his overwhelming personal bank account advantage.  He will have to face his foes man to man, on the same stage, answering the same questions.

While the race appears to be tightening, challenger Chris Christie seems to hold significant cards.  For one, it is very rare for an incumbent to be re-elected when he polls less than 40 percent so close to the election.  In no public poll has Governor Corzine's share topped 40 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

Second, the Governor lags Christie by at least 10 points in their own share of their respective political bases.  So while Christie is getting close to 90 percent of Republicans, the Governor is consistently polling under 80 percent of Democrats.  If this continues, Christie will win, because Corzine's underperfomance in his base negates the Democrats' natural voter registration and turnout advantage, and Independent voters, who are overwhelmingly for Christie, will provide his margin of victory.

The GOP challenger will do well in the debate if he:

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(OCEAN CITY, September 10) – First Legislative District GOP Assembly nominees Mike Donohue and John McCann last night spoke to a gathering organized by the civic group Millville First, and challenged their Democrat opponents, Nelson Albano and Matt Milam, to join them for more debates.