David Rebovich

ROBERTS STATEMENT ON PASSING OF DAVID REBOVICH

(TRENTON) - Assembly Speaker Joseph J. Roberts, Jr., (D-Camden) issued the following statement on the death of Rider University political science professor David P. Rebovich, Ph.D:

"Professor Rebovich was an absolute gentleman who helped distill both the complexities and foibles of New Jersey's political scene into understandable terms for state residents.

Dr. David Rebovich, managing director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics and frequent media commentator, died this morning after suffering a heart attack while teaching class at Rider. He was 58.

Politicians, fellow political experts, students and family members alike today celebrated his powers of understanding and his ability to explain the confounding political dynamics of his native state.

Can’t get enough Max Pizarro and David Rebovich?  Then you can watch them on television tonight and over the weekend. 

Pizarro will be featured on Reporters Roundtable on NJN, hosted by Zachary Fink.  He’ll appear along with reporters Tom Hester of The Associated Press, Adrienne Lu from The Bergen Record and Michael Symons from Gannett New Jersey.  The show will air on Friday at 6:30pm and Sunday at 10am. 

There are great primary races for State Senate and Assembly in seven districts tomorrow. Some are about the candidates themselves, and others are about power struggles between party leaders and other key players.

Each of these districts – 24, 26, 28, 29, 31, 33 and 40 – are competitive only in primaries. That means a victory in Tuesday’s primary in tantamount to election.

PoliticsNJ.com asked four political science professors who keep a careful eye on New Jersey politics for their predictions in key races: Ingrid Reed, the Director of the Eagleton Project at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute for Politics; David Rebovich, the Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics; Montclair University Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison; and Seton Hall University Political Science Professor (and Acting Dean) Joseph Marbach.

President George W. Bush at the Evesham Recreation Center in 2004: Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Democrats seem to be publicizing President Bush’s fundraising trip to New Jersey next week with as much enthusiasm as the Republicans.

On Wednesday, Bush will be in Edison to raise cash for the Republican State Committee, with ticket prices ranging for $300 per-person to attend the main reception to $5,000 for a photo-op with the President.

Democrats quickly seized on the opportunity to score political points by associating their local opponents with a President whose approval rating in New Jersey is a horribly upside-down 25%-70%, according to an April Quinnipiac University poll.

Jon Corzine's 51%-36% approval rating his his best yet, according to a new Quinnipiac University pollDemocratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan said a new Quinnipiac University Institute poll numbers showing Gov. Jon Corzine's approval rating at 51-36 percent, represent good news for Democrats, while a skeptical Tom Wilson, the GOP State Chairman, said the numbers show nothing new, and still reflect voter discontent.

Sparked by increased approval for his property tax reduction plan, the poll results released today are Corzine's highest ever, and show "little apparent effect from his auto accident," according to Quinnipiac.

by David P. Rebovich

A month ago many Democratic legislators, as well as nearly all the Republicans, were fighting with Governor Jon Corzine, over the state budget. The Governor's adversaries were asking some simple questions. Why can't the state make more spending cuts before levying new taxes on an already overburdened public? Shouldn't any increases in broad-based taxes be reserved to use cover revenues lost from cuts in property taxes? And, wasn't there going to be a special session of the legislature this summer that the Governor would kick-off with an address containing his ideas about how to deal with the very issues of property tax relief and reform?

Well, that session began on Friday, and the Governor certainly had a lot to say about property tax relief and reform. But he didn't mention anything about hiking any state taxes to provide such relief or reform, at least not for the foreseeable future. Rather, Corzine called for new efficiencies at all levels of government, program evaluations, administrative and structural reforms in sub-state governments, changes in funding formulas, and cuts in government worker benefit packages. Despite the Governor's matter of fact tone, it was clear to everyone in the crowded Assembly chambers and in the New Jersey Network television and radio audiences that this was as close to a declaration of war against the government establishment as New Jersey has seen.

Most of the Governor's proposals have been forwarded before by legislators from both parties. But never have they been combined to form a comprehensive plan, as Corzine put it, to provide not just some immediate property tax relief but sustainable property tax reform. And, certainly no governor has posited a deadline, and such a short one - year's end - to prepare legislation that will be controversial. Not because of the goals such legislation but because of the changes in government operations and structures the Governor regards as necessary to help achieve those goals.

If New Jerseyans are pleasantly surprised that Corzine is not calling for new taxes, they are nonetheless wondering what happened to the much discussed and ballyhooed idea of having a people's convention on property tax reform. And, whether the Governor's plans are actually different from promises by previous governors to deal with the state's most vexing issue. The Governor was aware that he needed to address these questions. In his address he said that public has a right to ask, what is the difference with this effort" and what exactly he hopes to accomplish. He answered, "action, action, action - now before the end of the year" and that there has been enough studying and talking about property tax reform.

Corzine admitted that while he "...would have preferred a citizens' constitutional convention...if we do our work, we should never need one." But, he added ominously, "If we fail to take the necessary steps to achieve sustainable relief and reform by January 1st, then I will call and press for a Citizens' Convention to be on the ballot in 2007." However, the message seemed to be that if the Democratic legislators who control both the General Assembly and the Senate "fail" on terms posited by a Governor of their own party, they will have a lot of explaining to do when seeking reelection in 2007.

What exactly is the Governor proposing? In his words, he is offering a "blueprint of principles and the elements of a plan" that need to be clarified, honed, and detailed through a bipartisan effort by the legislature and with public involvement over the next several months. Corzine's principles are pretty straightforward. New Jersey relies too much on the regressive property taxes to fund schools and local governments. Spending must be controlled at all levels of government. There are too many layers of government providing similar services. State government's serious, recurring fiscal problems prevent it from giving more aid to school districts and municipalities. In addition, aid formulas, particularly the school aid formula, is unfair. Given the dramatic increases in property taxes over a twenty-year period - on average over 6 percent annually -, the Governor is calling for comprehensive action now.

Such action needs to provide, Corzine insists, both relief and reform that can be sustained. To accomplish this, the state budget must be secure, meaning that revenue must match spending and that spending must be efficient, effective and justifiable. Residents of many areas in the state can be helped by a change in the school funding formula that focuses on giving aid to serve needy school kids regardless of where they live. Immediate relief can also be provided to individuals and families by adding $350 million of the dedicated portion of the revenue from the new sales tax hike for direct property tax relief and replacing rebate checks with tax credits that will lower people's actual property tax bills.

According to the Governor, the most difficult challenges will be implementing the specific reforms he has in mind. Some will likely be unpopular with some residents and groups and will take time to yield tangible benefits to taxpayers. Corzine identified five broad areas to help reduce government spending and keep property taxes down. One is to reform pension and health benefits received by government workers and create a two-tier benefits system of veteran and new employees. Another is to encourage shared services and consolidation among towns and school districts through a $250 million fund created with new sales tax revenue.

State government must also take action to reduce its debt to free up funds to use for property tax relief. Corzine supports reducing the $2.3 billion in annual debt service - a figure that will increase in the future - by selling, leasing and naming state assets. In the only hint of possible tax hikes in his address, the Governor wants consideration given to modernizing the tax system, which would include allowing municipalities to use other revenue sources like a local sales tax. To keep spending efficient, effective and legal, he reissued his call for a State Comptroller to audit all departments, agencies and programs. To increase citizens' control over spending and taxes, he wants school budget elections held on general election day. Lastly, Corzine recommended that property tax increases be capped at 4 percent, much lower than the average 6.9 percent hike in each of the last four years.

What were the reactions to the Governor's address? Despite their disagreements with Corzine over the sales tax hike, most Democrats rallied behind his proposals. They praised the Governor's call for quick action, even over a people's property tax convention that Speaker Joe Roberts (5th district) and several Democratic colleagues had strongly supported. Democratic legislators recognized that citizens want relief now, not promises about getting something three or four years down the road. While most Democrats are committed to the concept of progressive taxation, the general feeling on Friday was that taxing your way out of this crisis won't work and would hurt the state's economy.

Speaker Roberts was especially supportive of the Governor's initiatives. As Corzine mentioned in his address, he is borrowing some proposals made by Roberts' in his CORE reform plan that call for consolidation and regionalization of municipal and school services. Bringing government employee benefits in line with those in the private sector is an idea forwarded by Democratic state Senator Steve Sweeney (3rd district) and Assemblymen Jerry Green (22nd district) and Paul Moriarty (4th district). But other Democratic legislators privately expressed concern that government workers, teachers, police and firefighters, municipal and school officials, and small town politicians will likely fight some of Corzine's reform proposals and try to stop them in the legislature, not the Governor's Office.The question then becomes, while the Governor has declared war, how many battles will he and his allies be able to win?

Several Republican legislators asked that very question and then some. In my discussions will GOP legislators after the Governor's address, many praised Corzine's ambition and several of his proposals. Assemblymen Guy Gregg (24th district) and Rick Merkt (25th district) noted that Corzine's emphasis on cutting spending, reviewing the school funding formula, and growing the economy are right out of their party's playbook. Senator Peter Inverso (14th district) and Assemblyman Kevin O'Toole (40th district) are both concerned that the Governor did not mention a specific figure, like 20 percent or 30 percent, for the property tax relief he seeks. And, they reiterated the GOP's desire to have more representation on the legislative committees that will work on reform proposals.

Senator Joe Kyrillos (13th district) and Assemblyman Gregg added that changing the school funding formula is crucial to freeing up funds for suburban districts. They hope the Governor and his fellow Democrats have the political will to identify ineffective spending in Abbott districts and remove districts from the program whose tax bases have sufficiently increased. GOP State Committee chair Tom Wilson suggested that large cities can waste a lot of taxpayer dollars and state aid, and the Governor's plan focused on smaller towns and school districts. And Assemblyman Gregg wryly noted that state government itself is the biggest spender and as such should have its own annual spending increases capped at 4 percent. This year it went up by 10 percent despite the state's fiscal problems.

While these Republicans did show their commitment to the effort to provide residents with property tax relief and reform and to some of the Governor's specific proposals, they also demonstrated that they have concerns that need to be taken seriously by their fellow legislators this summer and fall. As Assemblyman and Budget Committee veteran Joe Malone (30th district) put it, "Governor Corzine is accessible to us, respectful of our ideas, and has taken them into account when developing his own initiatives." New Jerseyans would be well served if Democratic legislators this summer adopted Corzine's approach. And, if Republicans worked on turning their constructive criticisms into reform proposals as well. This war won't be won unless there is significant bipartisanship cooperation and agreement on the battle plans.

David P. Rebovich. Ph.D., is Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics (www.rider.edu/institute). He also writes a regular column, "On Politics," for NEW JERSEY LAWYER and monthly reports on New Jersey for CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS Magazine. He is a member of CQPolitics.com's Board of Advisors that provides weekly commentary on national political developments.

by David P. Rebovich

A month ago many Democratic legislators, as well as nearly all the Republicans, were fighting with Governor Jon Corzine, over the state budget. The Governor's adversaries were asking some simple questions. Why can't the state make more spending cuts before levying new taxes on an already overburdened public? Shouldn't any increases in broad-based taxes be reserved to use cover revenues lost from cuts in property taxes? And, wasn't there going to be a special session of the legislature this summer that the Governor would kick-off with an address containing his ideas about how to deal with the very issues of property tax relief and reform?

Well, that session began on Friday, and the Governor certainly had a lot to say about property tax relief and reform. But he didn't mention anything about hiking any state taxes to provide such relief or reform, at least not for the foreseeable future. Rather, Corzine called for new efficiencies at all levels of government, program evaluations, administrative and structural reforms in sub-state governments, changes in funding formulas, and cuts in government worker benefit packages. Despite the Governor's matter of fact tone, it was clear to everyone in the crowded Assembly chambers and in the New Jersey Network television and radio audiences that this was as close to a declaration of war against the government establishment as New Jersey has seen.

Most of the Governor's proposals have been forwarded before by legislators from both parties. But never have they been combined to form a comprehensive plan, as Corzine put it, to provide not just some immediate property tax relief but sustainable property tax reform. And, certainly no governor has posited a deadline, and such a short one - year's end - to prepare legislation that will be controversial. Not because of the goals such legislation but because of the changes in government operations and structures the Governor regards as necessary to help achieve those goals.

If New Jerseyans are pleasantly surprised that Corzine is not calling for new taxes, they are nonetheless wondering what happened to the much discussed and ballyhooed idea of having a people's convention on property tax reform. And, whether the Governor's plans are actually different from promises by previous governors to deal with the state's most vexing issue. The Governor was aware that he needed to address these questions. In his address he said that public has a right to ask, what is the difference with this effort" and what exactly he hopes to accomplish. He answered, "action, action, action - now before the end of the year" and that there has been enough studying and talking about property tax reform.

Corzine admitted that while he "...would have preferred a citizens' constitutional convention...if we do our work, we should never need one." But, he added ominously, "If we fail to take the necessary steps to achieve sustainable relief and reform by January 1st, then I will call and press for a Citizens' Convention to be on the ballot in 2007." However, the message seemed to be that if the Democratic legislators who control both the General Assembly and the Senate "fail" on terms posited by a Governor of their own party, they will have a lot of explaining to do when seeking reelection in 2007.

What exactly is the Governor proposing? In his words, he is offering a "blueprint of principles and the elements of a plan" that need to be clarified, honed, and detailed through a bipartisan effort by the legislature and with public involvement over the next several months. Corzine's principles are pretty straightforward. New Jersey relies too much on the regressive property taxes to fund schools and local governments. Spending must be controlled at all levels of government. There are too many layers of government providing similar services. State government's serious, recurring fiscal problems prevent it from giving more aid to school districts and municipalities. In addition, aid formulas, particularly the school aid formula, is unfair. Given the dramatic increases in property taxes over a twenty-year period - on average over 6 percent annually -, the Governor is calling for comprehensive action now.

Such action needs to provide, Corzine insists, both relief and reform that can be sustained. To accomplish this, the state budget must be secure, meaning that revenue must match spending and that spending must be efficient, effective and justifiable. Residents of many areas in the state can be helped by a change in the school funding formula that focuses on giving aid to serve needy school kids regardless of where they live. Immediate relief can also be provided to individuals and families by adding $350 million of the dedicated portion of the revenue from the new sales tax hike for direct property tax relief and replacing rebate checks with tax credits that will lower people's actual property tax bills.

According to the Governor, the most difficult challenges will be implementing the specific reforms he has in mind. Some will likely be unpopular with some residents and groups and will take time to yield tangible benefits to taxpayers. Corzine identified five broad areas to help reduce government spending and keep property taxes down. One is to reform pension and health benefits received by government workers and create a two-tier benefits system of veteran and new employees. Another is to encourage shared services and consolidation among towns and school districts through a $250 million fund created with new sales tax revenue.

State government must also take action to reduce its debt to free up funds to use for property tax relief. Corzine supports reducing the $2.3 billion in annual debt service - a figure that will increase in the future - by selling, leasing and naming state assets. In the only hint of possible tax hikes in his address, the Governor wants consideration given to modernizing the tax system, which would include allowing municipalities to use other revenue sources like a local sales tax. To keep spending efficient, effective and legal, he reissued his call for a State Comptroller to audit all departments, agencies and programs. To increase citizens' control over spending and taxes, he wants school budget elections held on general election day. Lastly, Corzine recommended that property tax increases be capped at 4 percent, much lower than the average 6.9 percent hike in each of the last four years.

What were the reactions to the Governor's address? Despite their disagreements with Corzine over the sales tax hike, most Democrats rallied behind his proposals. They praised the Governor's call for quick action, even over a people's property tax convention that Speaker Joe Roberts (5th district) and several Democratic colleagues had strongly supported. Democratic legislators recognized that citizens want relief now, not promises about getting something three or four years down the road. While most Democrats are committed to the concept of progressive taxation, the general feeling on Friday was that taxing your way out of this crisis won't work and would hurt the state's economy.

Speaker Roberts was especially supportive of the Governor's initiatives. As Corzine mentioned in his address, he is borrowing some proposals made by Roberts' in his CORE reform plan that call for consolidation and regionalization of municipal and school services. Bringing government employee benefits in line with those in the private sector is an idea forwarded by Democratic state Senator Steve Sweeney (3rd district) and Assemblymen Jerry Green (22nd district) and Paul Moriarty (4th district). But other Democratic legislators privately expressed concern that government workers, teachers, police and firefighters, municipal and school officials, and small town politicians will likely fight some of Corzine's reform proposals and try to stop them in the legislature, not the Governor's Office.The question then becomes, while the Governor has declared war, how many battles will he and his allies be able to win?

Several Republican legislators asked that very question and then some. In my discussions will GOP legislators after the Governor's address, many praised Corzine's ambition and several of his proposals. Assemblymen Guy Gregg (24th district) and Rick Merkt (25th district) noted that Corzine's emphasis on cutting spending, reviewing the school funding formula, and growing the economy are right out of their party's playbook. Senator Peter Inverso (14th district) and Assemblyman Kevin O'Toole (40th district) are both concerned that the Governor did not mention a specific figure, like 20 percent or 30 percent, for the property tax relief he seeks. And, they reiterated the GOP's desire to have more representation on the legislative committees that will work on reform proposals.

Senator Joe Kyrillos (13th district) and Assemblyman Gregg added that changing the school funding formula is crucial to freeing up funds for suburban districts. They hope the Governor and his fellow Democrats have the political will to identify ineffective spending in Abbott districts and remove districts from the program whose tax bases have sufficiently increased. GOP State Committee chair Tom Wilson suggested that large cities can waste a lot of taxpayer dollars and state aid, and the Governor's plan focused on smaller towns and school districts. And Assemblyman Gregg wryly noted that state government itself is the biggest spender and as such should have its own annual spending increases capped at 4 percent. This year it went up by 10 percent despite the state's fiscal problems.

While these Republicans did show their commitment to the effort to provide residents with property tax relief and reform and to some of the Governor's specific proposals, they also demonstrated that they have concerns that need to be taken seriously by their fellow legislators this summer and fall. As Assemblyman and Budget Committee veteran Joe Malone (30th district) put it, "Governor Corzine is accessible to us, respectful of our ideas, and has taken them into account when developing his own initiatives." New Jerseyans would be well served if Democratic legislators this summer adopted Corzine's approach. And, if Republicans worked on turning their constructive criticisms into reform proposals as well. This war won't be won unless there is significant bipartisanship cooperation and agreement on the battle plans.

David P. Rebovich. Ph.D., is Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics (www.rider.edu/institute). He also writes a regular column, "On Politics," for NEW JERSEY LAWYER and monthly reports on New Jersey for CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS Magazine. He is a member of CQPolitics.com's Board of Advisors that provides weekly commentary on national political developments.

by David P. Rebovich

With its paltry, twenty-percent approval rating, the Democratic-controlled legislature needs to show New Jerseyans that it has the best interests of the state, and not just the political survival of its members, at heart. His quest for fiscal integrity compromised by his fellow Democrats, Governor Jon Corzine wants to reassert himself by showing that he is the leader of his party and has a vision for the state that deserves support. After the embarrassing eight-day shutdown of state government, the Democrats in Trenton now have a much needed opportunity to redeem themselves. The legislature is holding a special session on the state's most important issues, property taxes. The session will begin with an address by the Governor on Friday, July 28th.

Will the session be productive and result in meaningful recommendations to change the state's high reliance on regressive property tax taxes to pay for schools and local and county governments? Well, New Jerseyans have heard candidates and public officials promise property tax reform for years but haven't seen much action. Thus, they are understandably skeptical about what the summer may bring. However, this time just may be different. Besides supporting reform in principle, the Governor, key legislative leaders, and lawmakers from both parties believe that the political consequences of not acting may be worse than making the bold decisions that comprehensive reform will require.

Even before the debacle over the new state budget, Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts called for a special session this summer and the creation of task forces that will study government employee pensions and health benefits, regionalizing and sharing services among municipalities and school districts, revising the controversial school funding formula, and planning for a so-called citizens convention on property tax reform. Anticipating that any property tax reform plan will require a shift to some other revenue sources, Roberts insisted during the government shutdown that if the Assembly was to approve the one-cent increase in the sales tax the Governor proposed, all of the $1.2 billion in revenues from the measure would have to go toward property tax relief.

Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson-Coleman admitted on New Jersey Network what most folks following the budget negotiations already assumed. Democrats in the legislature were worried about losing their seats, and perhaps even their slim, 22-18 majority in the Senate, if they voted for a sales tax hike in the name of an abstraction like "fiscal integrity" as opposed to something tangible like property tax relief. Roberts, Watson-Coleman and their many allies in both chambers got half of what they wanted. Now, with low ratings in the polls, they want to give citizens more property tax relief or at least a process, like a constitutional convention, to achieve that goal.

For his part, Corzine will open the special session by offering his own ideas on property tax reform. As it turns out, these ideas are not so different from Roberts'! The Governor wants to study the school funding formula, encourage the consolidation of school districts and municipalities and the regionalization of services, save state funds by rooting out waste and inefficiency and putting public employee benefits and retirement plans more in line with those in the private sector, and discussing the taxes that can be used to replace the revenues that would be lost by reducing property taxes.

New Jerseyans may still be weary from the eight-day government shutdown and skeptical about lawmakers' commitment to providing meaningful property tax reform. But they do need to pay careful attention to what the Governor and legislators from both parties are saying about property tax reform and what those task forces recommend. And, lawmakers themselves should ponder some important questions that average folks will likely have about property tax reform, questions that aren't often raised publicly on West State Street but are on Main Street, around water coolers and at kitchen tables throughout the Garden State. Here are a few of those questions.

Why can't the legislature and the governor approve a property tax reform plan and put it into effect as soon as possible? They can! So, too, could have Governor Jim McGreevey and the Democratic-controlled legislature and Governor Christie Whitman and the Republican-controlled legislature. According to conventional wisdom, they didn't do so because they did not want to have to hike other taxes - most likely the income tax - on some residents in order to reduce property taxes. This helps explain the support by lawmakers today for the so-called "people's" constitutional convention plan, whereby citizens will elect delegates who will study reforms measures and then recommend a plan for the public to vote on. The plan would be an amendment to the State Constitution, making it difficult to change if approved. If some people are hurt by a shift in greater reliance on other taxes, they only have their fellow citizens to blame, not their elected officials.

What if the delegates to the convention recommend a reform plan that is attractive to the majority but grossly unfair to some residents or harmful to the state as a whole? Yes, this can happen. In fact, there are concerns that some folks who run to be delegates to the convention will primarily be concerned about protecting the interests of specific groups, e.g., teachers, municipal employees, businesses, urbanites, suburbanites, and not be devoted to producing a good reform plan. And once elected, these delegates are not accountable to the public or even those people who voted for them, since delegates serve only as long as the convention lasts. Legislators, however, do have to answer to their constituents in the next election, which is an argument for having them work on a property tax reform plan. In addition, what's to prevent a convention from simply deciding to increase business taxes even if this undermines the state's economy or to low-ball state aid to needy school districts who really do need the money? Not much.

How much property tax relief is worth a reform effort, much less a constitutional convention? According to THE STAR LEDGER's Tom Moran, the Governor thinks 20 percent. Assemblyman Joe Malone, the ranking Republican on his chamber's Budget Committee, believes that relief should be in the $3,000 to $5,000 range, which would be fifty percent and more for most homeowners. In my own informal survey of legislators at the State House during the extended budget negotiations, 30 percent and 33 percent were the most mentioned figures. That would mean a $2,000 reduction for the average homeowner, a nice piece of change. But is it enough to help those citizens, mostly seniors, who complain that they have to sell their homes and move out of the state because of the high property taxes?

Who should pay more taxes to offset the revenue lost by reducing property taxes? Governor Jim Florio, the gutsiest chief executive the state has seen on the property tax issue (and the main reason why legislators today prefer a people's constitutional convention) concluded that individuals who earned more than $35,000 a year and families who brought in more than $70,000 a year should have higher marginal income tax rates to pay for additional school aid and municipal aid, a form of property tax relief. Many of these folks thought, "The Governor assumes I'm well-to -do. How dare he!"

Well, in any reform plan someone, probably lots of someones, will be considered able to pay more income taxes. Individuals and families making $200,000 to $500,000 are a likely target. Interestingly, these people probably already pay exorbitant property taxes. It is also noteworthy that wealthiest one percent of New Jerseyans provide 40 percent of the revenues gained from the property tax. The wealthiest 20 percent provide 80 percent of that revenue. In addition, Governor Corzine is concerned that increasing taxes on the well-to-do may add to New Jersey's reputation as being unfriendly to business and discourage high wage firms from locating or expanding operations here.

Another undesirable consequence of shifting all or most of the property tax burden to the well-off is that average New Jerseyans may be less concerned about efficiency and cost-cutting measures in their own town and school districts because someone else is paying the bills. That's a sentiment that lawmakers need to remember this summer and not succumb to! Passing the buck on property tax reform to preserve the established arrangements and current spending practices may be the path of least resistance and the politically popular thing to do. But meaningful reforms usually make most people at least a little unhappy as they get used to new ways of paying for and delivering government services. As the special legislative session approaches, New Jersey's legislators and the Governor should ask themselves if they have the political will to make their constituents a little unhappy in the name of a greater good.

David P. Rebovich, Ph.D., is Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics (www.rider.edu/institute). He also writes a regular column, "On Politics," for NEW JERSEY LAWYER and monthly reports on New Jersey for CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS Magazine. He is a member of CQPolitics.com's Board of Advisors that provides weekly commentary on national political developments.

by David P. Rebovich

Three and half months is an eternity in political time. Things change, such as the policy positions of lawmakers, public opinion on the issues, and the ability or one politician or another to influence colleagues or events. What almost never changes, however, are the underlying political interests of elected officials. That was certainly true this budget season and is a main reason why New Jersey state government was shut down for a week. But so too were differences in principles, specifically Governor Jon Corzine's commitment to fiscal integrity and the belief among Democratic legislators that they cannot do any good in policy terms unless they do what is necessary to maintain their majorities in the General Assembly and Senate.

The inconveniences caused by the political wrangling last week will likely keep many New Jerseyans skeptical about the willingness and ability of the Democrats who control state government to change politics and public policy for the better. So too will the perception that despite all the drama about the new budget, not much has changed. There will be some modest property tax relief, but many taxes will be higher. And, state aid and program support will be tight. However, Governor Corzine and Democratic as well as Republican legislators will have the opportunity to convince New Jerseyans of their commitment to political and tax and spending reform this summer in the planned special legislative session and in next year's budget.

Looking back, it was naive to think that the way state government has conducted itself for decades could be changed in six months. Of course the reform-oriented new Governor would clash with veteran lawmakers from both parties. On March 21st, moments after Corzine made his Budget Address to the joint session of the Legislature, Republican legislative leaders and, more importantly, Democratic ones complained vigorously about the new governor's proposed one-cent tax hike. The Republicans' objection was based on their small government ideology, anti-tax policy perspective, and political interest in being identified as advocates of the state's beleaguered taxpayers. The Democrats, especially the South Jersey contingent in the General Assembly and Senate, had two major concerns, one political and the other policy-related.

The political one was that supporting the Governor and voting for the sales tax hike would hurt legislators' reelection prospects in November 2007. The policy concern had two components. Several Democrats thought that increasing the sales tax rate simply to balance the budget would be political disaster for the party in power, as it was on three other occasions in New Jersey political history. Rather, any sales tax hike should be used to provide property tax relief or, better yet, be part of a major property tax reform plan that would win over most residents. Secondly, the sales tax is a regressive measure that hits the neediest the hardest. If more revenue really was needed to balance the new state budget, why not increase taxes that fall more heavily on better off residents, like the progressive income tax or luxury and business taxes?

Or, as Senator Steve Sweeney argued, why not ask state workers to give back some of their benefits? Senator John Adler would later suggest that the state lay-off 2,000 members of its 82,000 workforce rather than increase the sales tax. And, the Republican Assembly caucus recommended making over $2 billion in cuts in order to avoid any tax increases in the new budget.

As it turned out, the Governor did get his one-cent tax increase but not on the terms that he wanted. Indeed, state government may still be shut down if the Governor and Speaker Joe Roberts did not agree on a compromise proposed by Senate President Richard Codey, the former governor. Corzine had been holding strong to his commitment to signing a budget in which expenditures match real revenue, not money gained from gimmicks. And, he wanted that one-cent increase in the sales tax, and the $1.2 billion in revenues it would provide, to balance this year's budget and reduce the structural deficit next year to a more manageable $2 billion.

The Governor got the sales tax hike but only one-half the revenue for the 2007 budget and for future ones if citizens decide to support a constitutional amendment to that affect And, Roberts almost blew apart the already tenuous budget agreement arrived at on Thursday afternoon when he announced on Friday that he would propose a second constitutional amendment to dedicate all the revenue from the new sales tax hike to property tax relief. The Governor regarded the latter as a goal, one to be considered only after fiscal integrity is achieved and the climate for business in the state is improved. In Corzine's terms, Roberts' proposal may perpetuate the state's structural deficit and lead to fiscal crises in the future.

Corzine was able to put Roberts' proposal on hold for now. But the Speaker's attempted end run around the Governor added to the running story during the state shutdown about palace intrigue and which state official - Corzine, Roberts or even Codey - would be the real winner in this year's budget process. When Roberts gave into a sales tax hike just a day after emphatically declaring the idea dead, he was deemed a loser. But the Speaker had also said that any sales tax hike should be used for property tax relief, and he did get at least half of that in the compromise.

What about the Governor? Corzine, called the winner by many newspapers, later admitted that he got only about 75 percent of what he wanted in the new budget. Besides compromising on the sales tax and losing out on some $550 million in recurring revenues that he wanted to use to reduce the state's structural deficit, Corzine also lost his proposed hospital bed tax, alcohol tax, water tax and half of the new cigarette tax hike. And, to make matters worse, the Democratic-controlled legislature tacked on $340 million in district-oriented spending, usually referred to as "Christmas tree items," to the budget they sent to Corzine Saturday morning. And, they cut his planned increase in rebate checks for seniors and reduced by $100 the checks that families making over $70,000 a year would receive.

One interpretation of what occurred is that $890 million - the $550 million that would go to property tax relief and the $340 million in Christmas tree items - of the anticipated $1.2 billion in new revenues from the sales tax hike would go to spending, while only $310 million would be used to close the much-ballyhooed deficit this year and for budget balancing in the future. That was the buzz among veteran State House reporters at the Saturday evening press conference when Corzine would sign the budget. The big question was would he line item veto lots of those Christmas tree items from the budget to free up funds for further deficit reduction and to send those old school, uncooperative legislators a message.

At the budget signing, the Governor line item vetoed some 53 items to save a rather modest $51.3 million dollars. When pressed by reporters, Corzine did not exaggerate what the new budget accomplishes in terms of tax reduction or providing new policy initiatives. But he insisted that after all the bickering and compromising, the end product goes "...a long way down the path toward fiscal integrity," at the very least because the state is now digging itself out of its fiscal hole rather than digging itself deeper in that hole.

In particular he noted the $1.1 billion payment to the state's pension system. And, while no one can defend the lengthy government shutdown, Corzine believes that state lawmakers have learned a lot from the experience. In the future there will be a greater commitment to paying for government programs with recurring revenues, for paying attention to the impact of government decisions on people and the economy, for making decisions "in the light of day" and not behind closed doors, and for doing so in a timely fashion.

Beyond these consequential changes in budgeting and policy-making, Corzine is committed to making the special legislative session this summer a highly productive one. Speaker Roberts spoke forcefully about the work that the legislature would do over the summer to reduce government spending and set the stage for property tax reform. In his Friday press conference Roberts explained how he and his colleagues in both chambers and parties would study state worker pension reform, school funding reform, regionalization and shared services.

For his part, Governor Corzine would focus on reengineering government operations and departments to rid the state of waste and inefficiency. Such steps are necessary to restore citizens' faith in government, something Roberts admitted that had been lost this budget season, and to save money before shifting away the reliance on property taxes. But citizens' faith in their public officials will quickly disappear unless lawmakers explain to them that lower property taxes will likely require hikes and other taxes and perhaps some loss of local control over schools. If not, it won't be just state and casino workers who will march on the State House.

David P. Rebovich, Ph.D., is Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics (www.rider.edu/institute). He also writes a regular column, "On Politics," for NEW JERSEY LAWYER and monthly reports on New Jersey for CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS Magazine and is a member of CQPOlitics.com's Board of Advisors that provides weekly commentary on national political developments.