David Murray

The Bergen County Republican and Democratic chairmen both have a lot riding on the November 3rd election.

Not only is Bergen - the most populous of the state's 21 counties - expected to be hotly contested between Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial nominee Christopher Christie, but that race will likely have down-ballot implications that could change the course of the county's politics, put control of its government at stake in 2010 and shape the reputations of its two relatively new party chairs. 

The political fortunes of both men - and both parties -- are pegged to the gubernatorial race. 

For GOP chairman Robert Yudin, having Christie at the top of the ticket opposing an unpopular Democratic governor gives his minority party its best shot at picking up a freeholder seat since Lisa Randall won one in 2003.  It's a county that Christie's campaign has paid a lot of attention to, aware that they are not exempt from the New Jersey political wisdom that Republicans cannot win statewide without it.  The flip side for Yudin is that, if Christie wins Bergen but neither of the freeholder candidates win, he will get the blame for a missed opportunity and potentially suffer the consequences when his first term is up in June, 2010. 

Democratic Chairman Michael Kasparian, a developer, has an entirely different but equally difficult situation.  Last winter he took over control of a party that holds all but one county-wide office.  But it has seen its share of problems since the indictment of its powerful former chairman, Joe Ferriero, on corruption charges that he will have to fight in court in October - the peak of the campaign season.  Fundraising - Ferriero's specialty - is more difficult with the economy in shambles, and the party's debt picture is not yet clear, since Kasparian has not yet released an audit he commissioned.  If Republicans pull off a victory, Kasparian risks being saddled with the blame for the party's decline. 

If Republicans win even one seat on the freeholder board this year, they'll have a shot at control next year, when three Democratic freeholders, Sheriff Leo McGuire and County Executive Dennis McNerney are up for reelection.  If Christie is in office, Yudin said, Bergen Republicans will feel a sense of momentum. 

"New Jersey is considered a blue state. Bergen is considered a blue county.  And this is really considered a meaningful election," said Yudin, who said that a victory for his two freeholder candidates and maybe even some assembly candidates would mean that "the Republican Party in the state and the Republican Party in Bergen County is back." 

Yudin knows the pain of losing.  He ran for freeholder unsuccessfully three times before he wrested the party's chairmanship from Rob Ortiz in June of last year.  His 2008 freeholder candidates - Chris Calabrese, Jeff Heller and Paul Duggan -- all lost, but by narrower margins than recent races and in a year when Democrats benefited immensely from the Obama wave (Republican County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, who ran a campaign separate from the freeholders, still managed to be the county candidates' top vote getter). 

Now, Republicans are running Mahwah Councilman Rob Hermansen and Paramus activist John Driscoll against Democratic incumbents Julie O'Brien and Vernon Walton.

Gov. Jon Corzine

Depending on who you talk to out there, the gubernatorial election comes down to either independent strength in the suburbs with proverbial lunch bucket conservative Democrats compelled to cross over to join Republican challenger Christopher Christie, or a show of force by Democrats in the urban areas who, despite feeling less than inspired by Gov. Jon Corzine, are sufficiently roused to battle down the Republican Party.

In this commonly designated blue state, Democrats outnumber Republicans 1,655,815 to 1,004,746. Independent voters (2,086,647) form the biggest block, and lean Democratic.

A 12-year veteran of the legislature who lost his 2007 reelection bid when he ran afoul of the local Democratic Party machine, former Assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo (D-Newark) said he believes the Republican Party brand is too damaged to sell here in New Jersey.

While acknowledging his party's longtime statewide troubles, veteran Republican strategist David Murray meanwhile sees Corzine as essentially DOA among independents and bulk suburban voters, and finally incapable of ginning up enough base support to win.

It's brand versus man.

"The Black and Latino vote will decide this race," argued Caraballo, referring to the 807,558 registered voters from those ethnic groups among the state's 4,702,833 registered voters. "The more the Democratic Party links Christie to the Republican Party, whether people like Chris or not, even if they think he's good guy, if Corzine's campaign hits home that Christie is a Republican, and underscores what that means in 2009, they will have implemented one of the most potent arguments they could use against Christie."

Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie will pick up the endorsement of a formal rival tomorrow when Morris County Freeholder John Murphy announces his support for the former U.S. Attorney.  In 1997, Murphy defeated Christie in the GOP primary for Freeholder.

After the primary, Christie filed a defamation lawsuit against Murphy and his political consultant, David Murray.  The matter was settled out of court.

Afraid of facing a GOP primary challenge, Assemblywoman Alison Littell McHose (R-Franklin) had indicated to Republican leaders that she would endorse former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie for Governor after the filing deadline - which was last Monday.  Sources say that the Christie camp, aggravated by McHose's delay, is no longer viewing her as a possible candidate for Lt. Governor.  It's possible that Christie would not have asked McHose to be his running mate anyway, but her neutrality has all but ended her hope of running statewide this year.

Chris Christie, who began his political career running for Morris County Freeholder in 1994, is expected to seek the GOP nomination for Governor in 2009.

His 1995 swearing-in ceremony marked an auspicious beginning for Freeholder Christopher J. Christie, who raised his right hand to take the oath of office at the prompting of former Gov. Thomas Kean.*

If Christie was still relatively unknown in Morris County Republican politics, the considerable presence of Kean at the reorganization meeting six months after the young comer ousted incumbent Cecilia Laureys in the GOP primary turned some heads.

Soon more people would know the freshman freeholder, although to hear observers tell the story – thirteen years removed from the initial pomp of the Kean triumphal – Christie didn’t exactly overwhelm the Morris County Republican organization. It wasn’t that he didn’t get government or arrived at freeholder meetings unprepared

That wasn’t it at all.

He just appeared unusually ambitious, particularly when, just two months into his first term as a freeholder, he announced his intentions to run for the State Assembly.  He said he’d accomplished all he needed to at the county level and that it was time to move on to Trenton.

His colleagues saw that as a particularly audacious move.

A pair of Republicans involved in the 2008 campaign in Bergen County seem to have different views on how the campaign was run, and how they should be run in the future. Alan Marcus, a public relations executive and former Bergen County GOP Executive Director who worked on Kathleen Donovan's successful re-election campaign for County Clerk, wrote an Op-Ed for The Record last week criticizing the failed Republican Freeholder candidates for running almost exclusively on the reform issue and talking about indicted Bergen County Democratic Chairman Joseph Ferriero. Ferriero, Marcus says, "is known to a minute segment of the population." Marcus also beat up on U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett, saying he didn't appeal to votes outside his conservative base.

On Sunday, Republican political consultant David Murray, who worked for the GOP Freeholder candidates, wrote a Letter to the Editor taking issue with Marcus' comments. He says that while Donovan's win was impressive, it was largely due to name identification and not any groundbreaking targeting or strategies.

Biotech millionaire John Crowley is seriously considering bid for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2009 – although some GOP leaders seem skeptical of his intentions after his on again, off again bid for the United States Senate last spring.  But if Crowley runs, he could make a move for votes in the base of his likely rival, U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie.  Sources say that Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, an old-time Christie foe who ran for Governor in 2005, has told some friends that he might be for Crowley.

Assemblyman Guy Gregg is now telling supporters that he has decided to challenge longtime incumbent Robert Littell in the June Republican primary for State Senate in the 24th district. Gregg has hired political consultant David Murray, who has worked for many GOP legislators over the last 25 years.

The 70-year-old Littell, who has had major health issues in recent years, has been in the Legislature since 1967; he moved up to the Senate in 1990. Gregg, 57, one the Legislature's leading conservatives, has served in the Assembly since 1994.

But some Republican insiders say that Gregg could still change his mind: in 2002, he dropped his U.S. Senate bid just hours before the filing deadline.

PoliticsNJ.com reported last week that Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce used Assembly Republican Victory money to pay for a mailing on the state budget into his GOP-safe 26th district -- based on the disclaimer used on the mail piece. But DeCroce's consultant, David Murray, provided copies of checks demonstrating that the Election Fund of Alex DeCroce paid for the mail, despite a disclaimer that said it was paid for by the leadership PAC. "I made a mistake and erroneously placed the SRM/ARV disclaimer on Alex's third mailer," Murray wrote.