Clay Richards

Quinnipiac: Obama 48%, McCain 45%: Getty Images Photo
The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters.  Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign.  A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.

“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey.  The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

Last week, the non-partisan Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed a hypothetical 2009 gubernatorial race in a dead heat, with U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by just one point - 41%-40% -- well within that poll's plus or minus 2.5% margin of error. But a new Zogby International poll released today, conducted for Garden State Equality, shows Corzine with nine point lead over Christie.

Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson said the numbers show today's poll slightly skewered towards Democrats. As of June 3rd - after a huge influx of new Democratic registrants for the February presidential primary and, to a lesser extent, Republican ones -- New Jersey had 1.68 million registered Democrats, 1.03 million registered Republicans and 2.23 unaffiliated/independent voters. The poll's sample group was made up of 331 Democrats, 226 Republicans and only 246 independent/unaffiliated voters.

"We know in New Jersey that's not exactly how the makeup goes," said Wilson.

Still, Wilson said, the poll shows troubling numbers for Corzine.

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continue to hold substantial leads in the February 5 New Jersey presidential primaries, with a general election matchup between the two in a statistical dead heat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

Clinton leads Barack Obama 51%-17%, with John Edwards at 7%.  Giuliani has a 38%-12% lead over John McCain, with Mike Huckabee at 8%, Mitt Romney at 7%, and Fred Thompson at 4%. 

In a general election matchup, Clinton leads Giuliani 45%-44%. 

Gov. Jon Corzine's job approval ratings continue to go down and voters are split, 44%-43%, on whether he should be re-elected in 2009, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. Corzine has a 46%-43% approval rating, down from 49%-40% in September, and 48%-39% in July. Among New Jersey voters, 41% say they would vote for Corzine, and 31% say they would back an unnamed Republican candidate.

“Midway in his first term, voters are lukewarm about Gov. Jon Corzine and give his performance a mediocre rating. Most just think things have stayed about the same since he took over in Trenton,” said Clay Richards, the Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac polling institute.

Frank Lautenberg will be 84 when he seeks re-election to the U.S. Senate next year
While two recent independent polls show that a majority of New Jerseyans think Frank Lautenberg is too old to serve another full term in the U.S. Senate, so far there have been no Democrats willing to openly discuss a primary bid.

Add Tom Byrne to that list.

Jon Corzine 52%
Doug Forrester 45%