Clay Richards

Democrats and Republicans are slightly more likely to root for the Yankees than the Mets or Phillies than Independents, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today showing 44% of state voters interested in baseball say the New York Yankees are their favorite baseball team.  Democrats and Republicans are essentially the same when it comes to picking a baseball team.

21% of New Jersey voters say the New York Mets are their favorite team, and 20% say it is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Among Democrats: Yankees 46%, Phillies 21%, Mets 20%.
Among Republicans, Yankees 44%, Phillies 21%, Mets 20%
Among Independents: Yankees 41%, Mets 22%, Phillies 20%

"Dress New Jersey baseball fans - men and women, young and old - in Yankee pinstripes.  There are just about as many Yankee fans as there are Phillies and Mets backers combined.  Only in the Philadelphia suburbs do the Phillies dominate," said Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

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Clay Richards, known to New Jersey political insiders as the Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is expected to retire this summer after a forty year career that included political reporting for UPI and Newsday.  Maurice Carroll, the poll director and a former New York Times reporter, is expected to accompany Richards on his final Quinnipiac poll news conference today. 

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Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 38%-53% approval rating and upside-down favorable of 37%-51%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Among likely Democratic primary voters, Corzine is winning just 65% of the vote against three minor candidates, with 20% of voters still undecided about voting for Corzine in the Democratic primary.

"The good news for Gov. Jon Corzine is that he may have hit bottom and stopped his slide.  Once the primary is over, Corzine will put on his million-dollar golden gloves and start to fight," Richards added.  "Independent voters are the key to this race and by a 2-1 margin they don't like the job Corzine is doing. But all Corzine has to do is win back half the Democrats now voting for Christie and he is back in the race."

Jeff Boss, who claims to have witnessed the federal government planning the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and Phillipsburg businessman Roger Bacon, who designs coffee mugs, are at 5%.  Former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson is at 4%.

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New Jerseyans support a law that would allow same sex couples to marry, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  The proposed law, which would be voted on by legislators later this year, is backed 49%-43% -- a huge increase from a December 2007 Quinnipiac poll that showed 50% of state voters opposing same-sex marriage.  And nearly two-thirds of the voters back the existing civil union law.

Public support for marriage equality comes even after the National Organization for Marriage launched a reported $1.5 million TV ad campaign opposing same-sex marriage in New Jersey.

By a 66%-30%, New Jersey voters reject the argument that same-sex marriage ""is a threat to the traditional marriage between a man and a woman."

"Legislators, take note:  No matter what lies our opponents throw on television, New Jersey stands by marriage equality and will stand by you when you vote to end discrimination in marriage in 2009," said Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality.

When New Jersey voters are offered three choices:

• 42 percent say same-sex couples should be allowed to marry;
• 30 percent say same-sex couples should be allowed to form civil unions, but not marry;
• 20 percent oppose any legal recognition of same-sex relationships.

"Two years after New Jersey's civil union law went into effect, sentiment for allowing same-sex marriage in the state has shifted from six points against to six points in favor," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "Support for the same-sex civil union law has risen dramatically and New Jersey voters do not see gay marriage as a threat to traditional marriages between a man and a woman. Support for allowing gay couples to adopt children is nearly 2 - 1." 

Six out of ten voters believe that same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children.   

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Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by nine points, 46%-37%, in the race for the Republican nomnation for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Christie had led Lonegan 40%-19% in a poll taken by Quinnipiac last month.  

“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters to likely voters.  These Republican loyalists are less impressed by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.

In a general election matchup Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by seven points, 45%-38%, and is tied with Steve Lonegan, 41%-41%.  

Corzine an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-54% -- the worst of his nine-year political career.  He was at 40%-50% in March.

“The economy is killing Gov. Jon Corzine’s approval rating in New Jersey so much that he is vulnerable not only to a strong challenger such as Chris Christie but a lesser known Republican such as Mayor Steve Lonegan,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “By any measure, Corzine is losing the support of key independent voters.  More importantly, he is not generating the level of love from fellow Democrats he needs to offset his big negatives among Republicans and independents."

Richards says it will be tough for Corzine to win re-election when six out of ten New Jerseyans disapprove of his handling of the economy.

“But Corzine has a great potential equalizer in this campaign – the millions he will spend to get his message across," said Richards. 

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Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute:  "Six out of 10 voters say they do not know enough about (Christopher) Christie to form an opinion and nearly as many say they were unaware he is the federal prosecutor who put more than 100 New Jersey politicians out of office.  When told of his record as a prosecutor, about a third of those who did not have an opinion about him said they were more likely to vote for him after hearing about his record."

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New Jersey voters are split 47%-48% on reducing or eliminating property tax rebates for everyone but senior citizens and the disabled, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  The most intense opposition to changes in the rebate system come from low income voters, whose rebates have been protected by Gov. Jon Corzine’s budget proposal.  

By a 64%-33% margin, voters support an income tax increase for New Jerseyans making more than $250,000 a year.  Not surprisingly, voters in that income group oppose the plan by a 66%-33% margin.

“One of the most controversial budget proposals, reducing or eliminating property tax rebates for most residents except the elderly and disabled, divides the voters right down the middle, not only overall but by political party as well,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “Perhaps this cow is not so sacred after all.”

New Jerseyans are split 47%-47% on Corzine’s plan to furlough state workers.  By a 65%-32% margin, voters back a plan to raise taxes on alcohol.  They support a plan to hike cigarette taxes by a 75%-23% margin.

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Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman's marathon of "Second Chance" hearings across the state is widely seen first and foremost as an initiative brought about by a personal struggle: watching her two sons return from 5 1/2 year prison stints for robbing a clothing store at gun point.

But with Watson Coleman's name widely assumed to be on Governor Jon Corzine's shortlist of potential running mates, some insiders see it as an audition as well.

While not doubting her personal connection and passion for the cause, some observers see Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) as building name ID across the state and taking ownership of an issue that appeals to the inner city, minority base whose large turnout Corzine may need to win reelection.

"In a state where there are not many well-known candidates for any statewide office at this point beyond Gov. Corzine and Chris Christie, she would certainly be an attractive candidate who can go out there and get her name better known," said Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards.  "It's logical that she do this kind of thing, and she has a message.  Unlike officials who represent a single geographic area, it goes beyond her constituency and it's attractive." Read More >

Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards says that incumbent Jon Corzine has suddenly become the underdog in his bid for re-election to a second term, and that the "big question is whether Corzine will come back like Democratic Gov. Brendan Byrne did in 1977 or go down to defeat like Jim Florio in 1993?"

A February 1977 Eagleton-Rutgers poll showed Byrne trailing an unnamed Republican challenger by 26 points, 45%-19%.  He had an upside-down approval rating of 22%-71%.  In a July poll taken after Byrne won the Democratic primary with 30% of the vote against ten challengers, GOP State Sen. Raymond Bateman led by seven points, 46%-39%.  Byrne was re-elected by a 56%-42% margin.

More than half of the state's voters (51%) felt Florio didn't deserve a second term in a February 1993 Eagleton-Rutgers poll.  Florio had upside-down approvals of 36%-60%.  A post-primary poll taken in June showed Republican Christine Todd Whitman and Florio in a statistical dead heat, 44%-43%.  Whitman beat Florio by 26,093 votes, 49%-48%.

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Democrats think today's Quinnipiac gubernatorial poll indicates that Gov. Jon Corzine is well on his way to being understood and embraced by the electorate after making several unpopular and tough, but necessary decisions.

Republicans see the poll as demonstrating lackluster support for the Corzine, considering he's spent a combined $100 million on his two previous statewide races, and early enthusiasm for U.S. Attorney Chris Christie's potential candidacy among those who have heard of him.

Meanwhile, non-partisan political analysts see the poll as a wash, with promising and troubling results for both Corzine and U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate.

Corzine leads Christie in the poll, 42% to 36%, although only 37% of voters think Corzine deserves to be reelected and his approval rating remains net negative. Christie remains a relative unknown, with only 30% of respondents knowing enough about him to form an opinion.

Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman, said that's the number that caught his attention. Despite dozens of positive front page headlines about his indictments and convictions of prominent public officials since he was sworn in, 70% of voters still barely know anything about him.

On top of that, although Corzine still has a net negative approval rating, he's improved significantly since the last Quinnipiac poll in September.

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