Chuck Haytaian

The death of Jack Kemp leaves six living former unsuccessful major party nominees for Vice President: Sargent Shriver (1972), Bob Dole (1976), Geraldine Ferraro (1984), Joe Lieberman (2000), John Edwards (2004) and Sarah Palin (2008).  There are also five living former Vice Presidents.  Of the six, three -- Dole, Lieberman and Edwards -- carried New Jersey.

In New Jersey, there are eleven living former unsuccessful major party candidates for United States Senator: Warren Wilentz (1966), David Norcross (1976), Jeff Bell (1978), Mary Mochary (1984), Peter Dawkins (1988), Christine Todd Whitman (1990), Chuck Haytaian (1994), Dick Zimmer (1996 and 2008), Bob Franks (2000), Douglas Forrester (2002) and Tom Kean, Jr. (2006).

New Jersey also has five living unsuccessful major party candidates for Governor: Raymond Bateman (1977), Peter Shapiro (1985), Jim Courter (1989), Bret Schundler (2001), and Douglas Forrester (2005).  Two other losing gubernatorial candidates, Jim Florio (1981 and 1993) and James E. McGreevey (1997) were subsequently elected Governor.

When John DiMaio takes his seat in the State Assembly sometime over the next few weeks, it will become the first time in history that two Warren County residents will be serving together in the lower house.  DiMaio, at least until January 2010, will serve with his onetime friend and political ally, four-term Assemblyman Michael Doherty.

The last time Warren had two legislators was in 1990, when eleven-term State Senator Wayne Dumont resigned for health reasons.  At the time, the district included parts of Warren and Sussex counties.  The Warren County legislator was Chuck Haytaian, then the Assembly Minority Leader.  Twelve-term Assemblyman Robert Littell moved up to the Senate, and he was replaced by another Sussex County Republican, Scott Garrett.

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg, who began his fifth term in the U.S. Senate in January 2008, has beaten fifteen Democrats, five Republicans and 20 Independents on his path to becoming the longest serving Senator in New Jersey history.

Hunterdon County Republican Chairman Henry Kuhl's vote total in his 2008 re-election campaign was nearly identical to the number of County Committee votes Marcia Karrow won in Hunterdon in the special election convention for State Senator.

Marcia Karrow won a State Senate seat by 42 votes, 195-143, boosted by receiving 70% of the vote (125-54) in her home county of Hunterdon and by holding Michael Doherty to 56% (89-70) in his home county of Warren.

Voter turnout in Hunterdon was 86%; thirty Republican County Committee members from Hunterdon County did not show up to vote today.  GOP County Chairman Henry Kuhl told PolitickerNJ.com this week that there were three vacancies out of 212 seats.

Karrow's vote tally in Hunterdon (125) was nearly equal to the votes received by Kuhl (124) in his 2008 re-election bid.  But while Kuhl's opponent, Bloomsbury Mayor Mark Peck, received 78 votes, Doherty won just 54.
 
All but a few of the 181 County Committee seats in Warren were filled.  Today, 159 votes were cast from Warren County.

Getty Images Photo

Bill Bradley (above) and Frank Lautenberg are the only incumbent Democrats to win re-election in New Jersey in the last thirty years.

As he prepares to launch his bid for a second term, Governor Jon Corzine will seek to become the first Democrat not named Frank Lautenberg to win re-election in New Jersey since Bill Bradley just narrowly defeated Christine Todd Whitman in a U.S. Senate race nineteen years ago. 

Lautenberg's victory over Republican Dick Zimmer last year ended a fourteen-year drought for Democratic incumbents winning re-election.  The last time was in 1994, when Lautenberg beat Republican Garabed "Chuck" Haytaian, the Assembly Speaker.   During the subsequent fourteen years, no Democratic statewide officeholder was re-elected to a second term.

Republicans are looking to end twelve-year drought; they haven't won statewide since Whitman was re-elected Governor in 1997.  Since that election, Republican statewide candidates have been victorious  in 49 other states, as well as in Puerto Rico and Guam.

With a 22-point lead in his bid for re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Frank Lautenberg is likely to break two new records -- he'll become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, and he'll break his own record as the oldest person to ever win a statewide election in this state.  But there is one more record that Lautenberg could break -- the biggest winning percentage in a U.S. Senate race. That record belongs to Bill Bradley, who won 64.2% against Mary Mochary in 1984.  

Lautenberg could become the fifth Senator in state history to win more than 60% of the vote; if this is the last campaign for the 84-year-old Democrat, it's not a bad way to go out -- especially since Lautenberg has never passed the 54% mark before.  He won 50.9% against Millicent Fenwick in 1982, 53.5% against Peter Dawkins in 1988, 50.3% against Chuck Haytaian in 1994, and 53.9% against Douglas Forrester in 2002.

Frank Lautenberg, who has never amassed huge approval ratings in independent polls and has never won more than 55% of the vote in a general election, appears likely to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history.  The 84-year-old Democrat  is positioned to break Clifford Case's record of 24 years in statewide office in December.  He has already passed Harrison Williams for number two on that list.

Some analysts say that Lautenberg has been lucky -- the fortunate beneficiary of the Republicans nominating the wrong candidate in each of his elections.  His first campaign was against Millicent Fenwick, an iconic 72-year-old Congresswoman who was the model for Doonsbury's Lacey Davenport character.  But Fenwick refused to raise PAC money and couldn't compete with Lautenberg's vast self-financed warchest.  Old-time GOP'ers say that Jim Courter, then a two-term Congressman, would have been a stronger candidate for the open Senate seat. 

There seems to be a general consensus among political insiders as to who won the Democratic U.S. Senate debate: Steve DeMicco.  Frank Lautenberg was less than impressive – not even close to his performance in previous debates against Millicent Fenwick, Pete Dawkins, Chuck Haytaian and Doug Forrester – but the debate was at 8PM on a Friday night, so it didn’t really matter.  That’s why DeMicco, Lautenberg’s consultant, was the winner – his campaign took quite a few hits for not engaging Rob Andrews in network TV debates, but it appears that was the right call.

If the reports are accurate – frankly, there has been so much confusion over the last six weeks that it’s hard to believe any of this – Republicans may have found a credible U.S. Senate candidate in Dick Zimmer.