Christopher Christie

If support for independent candidate Christopher Daggett is soft, as indicated by this morning's Quinnipiac University poll, then the race for second choice among those who say they are likely to vote for Daggett remains important.  Republican Christopher Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 40%-33% among Daggett supporters who list a second choice.  Nearly six out of ten Daggett (39%) voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

 

 

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The decision of Assemblyman Herbert Conaway (D-Delanco) to run for Burlington County Democratic Chairman could complicate a 2010 special election for State Senator if Diane Allen (R-Edgewater Park) were to leave the Legislature.  Allen is battling an aggressive form of cancer and recently had surgery.  She has a tough road ahead. 

If Allen were to resign, the Republican County Committee from the seventh district towns in Burlington and Camden counties would hold a special election convention to name a new Senator.  There has been speculation that Rev. Aubrey Fenton, a minister and former Burlington County Freeholder, could take the seat.  That would set up a November 2010 special election to fill the remaining fourteen months of Allen's term - an early referendum on Republican Christopher Christie's first months as Governor in a Democratic-leaning district Allen has won five times.  It would also be an early test for the new Senate President, Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford), who topped Richard Codey largely because of the size of the South Jersey Democratic delegation.  A special election could be enormously expensive Sweeney and Democratic leader George Norcross battle the new Republican governor for a valuable Senate seat.

The high profile State Senate race would also come as U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) campaigns for a second term; there is substantial overlap between the third congressional district and the seventh legislative district. 

Three names have been prominently mentioned on the Democratic side: Conaway, Assemblyman Jack Conners (D-Pennsauken), and Troy Singleton, a former Deputy Executive Director of the Assembly and now the Director of Policy and Planning for the New Jersey Regional Council of Carpenters.  Singleton, who took a leave of absence this year to run Loretta Weinberg's campaign for Lt. Governor, is a favorite of Camden County Democratic leaders who are not huge fans of Conaway. Read More >

As Christopher Christie begins to assemble an administration, it makes sense for local elected officials who want a full-time job to remember the Governor-elect's opposition to dual office holding.  The convention wisdom seems to be that Christie will allow a mayor or councilman, for example, to join his team, as long as they agree to not take a salary for their part-time post.

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New Jersey voters repudiated Governor Jon Corzine's policies of the past four years on November 3rd.  Republican Chris Christie and Independent Chris Daggett received nearly 55% of the votes cast.

The anti-Corzine voters played it safe on Election Day, pulling the lever for Christie instead of Daggett who had a "plan" to lower property taxes by widening the sales tax.

The Christie campaign effectively demolished Daggett's candidacy in the last two weeks of October with a series of commercials, and his support plunged like a rock in the days leading up to November 3rd.

To bolster New Jersey's economy in 2010 governor-elect Christie will have to rein in the overspending, onerous taxes, and unnecessary regulations that have made New Jersey one of the least business friendly states in the nation.   In short, Christie has to restructure New Jersey's state government and overhaul the state budget so entrepreneurs know they will not have to shoulder the burden as individuals and as business owners/managers to pay for the state's irresponsible spending.

Christie must order his transition team to draw up a plan to decentralize.  In other words, some state government functions have to be streamlined, some have to be abolished and some have to be returned to counties, municipalities, communities, families and individuals.

This is the list Christie's transition team has to develop immediately.  If Christie has less than a total commitment to a much leaner state government, a less costly state government, and ending unfunded state mandates on municipalities, he will have lost the opportunity to turn New Jersey's economy around.

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A book signing tour for former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin does not included any appearances in New Jersey, according to a schedule released by her publisher.  In remarks at the Republican Governors Association meeting in Texas yesterday, Gov.-elect Christopher Christie said that he used national GOP surrogates sparingly and only invited people with whom he had a previous friendship, or those who came from a state where Democrats win elections.

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State law requires every local Board of Education to be a dues-paying member of the New Jersey School Boards Association (NJSBA).  This unfunded mandate brings in about $7.3 million in revenues to the trade organization that represents local school boards.  The NJSBA operates at a profit each year, and has over $11 million in unrestricted cash and in certificate of deposits. 

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It appears that Gov.-elect Christopher Christie will nominate his running mate, Lt. Gov.-elect Kim Guadagno, to serve as Secretary of State.  The law creating the new post requires that the LG also hold another position (anything but Attorney General), but the statute is vague as to whether it must be a cabinet job.  Guadagno's nomination as Secretary of State is not Senate confirmable.

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Political problems for the state's largest teacher's union continue to mount.  After going all out for Gov. Jon Corzine in the recent election, the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) knows they have a potential problem with voucher-backing charter school enthusiast Gov.-elect Christopher Christie.  And in the Senate, it looks like Teresa Ruiz (D-Newark), a protégé of Newark political leader Stephen Adubato, might replace Shirley Turner (D-Lawrence) as chairman of the Education Committee.  A fair assumption is that Ruiz will share Adubato's fervent support for charter schools. 

Turner could wind up a casualty of the contest for Senate President; she backed incumbent Richard Codey (D-Roseland), while Ruiz supported the likely winner, Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).

Christie's problem with the NJEA might be more than just politics - he appears to have different views on how to fix New Jersey's public school.  And he might have the upper hand, especially with a potential political ally running the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange), who is expected to become the next Assembly Speaker, has not yet indicated who she will pick as the new Assembly Education Committee Chairman.  The incumbent, Joseph Cryan (D-Union), a strong NJEA supporter, is expected to vacate the post to become Majority Leader.  Oliver also has strong ties to Adubato - she is the Assistant Essex County Administrator (and Ruiz is the Deputy Chief of Staff to the Essex County Executive) - but statehouse observers say that Oliver is likely to pick a new chairman who would be supportive of the teachers union, a key player in the state's Democratic base vote.

Reportedly not under consideration to head the Education Committee is Joan Voss (D-Fort Lee), who spent forty years as a public school teacher and is now vice chair of the panel.  Voss, Democratic leaders say, lacks intellectual heft to take on the post.  Instead, Democrats could turn to Patrick Diegnan (D-South Plainfield), a Cryan/Oliver ally and the current chairman of the Assembly Higher Education Committee.  If Diegnan turns it down - the Middlesex County Democrat might want to stay where he is, considering the importance of Rutgers University to his district, the leadership might go with the highly-regarded Mila Jasey (D-South Orange), a former school board member but an ally of outgoing Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland), or Paul Moriarty (D-Washington Twp.), a member of South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross' political organization.

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After discussing the budget at a meeting with State Treasurer David Rousseau and two officials from the Office of Management and Budget, Gov.-Elect Christopher Christie said his reaction was a "rueful chuckle." 

And at a press conference today talking about that meeting, the faces of Christie and his two top budget advisors, Richard Bagger and Robert Grady - who were also present at the meeting -- were dour. 

That $8 billion structural deficit we've been talking about for 2011?  If things remain the way they are and infusions like the one that came from the federal stimulus for the 2010 budget are not repeated, the men said, that's "the low end of the range."  Moreover, the revenue projections for the 2010 budget, which were about $190 million short in the first quarter, are set to continue to come in below projections, while there are expected to be supplemental needs in agencies that will increase spending. 

"If you add together the fact that revenues are continuing to come in light and there are supplemental needs, it's clear that we will have a problem in Fiscal 2010 that will need to be addressed," said Grady to a room packed shoulder-to-shoulder with a few dozen reporters and cameramen. 

Christie and his advisors did not give details about how they planned to solve the problem, but said they will deliver a letter to Gov. Jon Corzine today about it and said they would undertake four steps:

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The peril of mortality has sparked a debate among Democrats over the political future of 85-year-old Frank Lautenberg.  Some Democrats think he should retire from the United States Senate before Republican Christopher Christie is sworn in as governor in January.  That would give Gov. Jon Corzine the ability to appoint a Democrat to replace him, and have ten months of incumbency before a November 2010 special election to fill the remaining four years of Lautenberg's term.  But realistically, Lautenberg isn't going anywhere, at least not voluntarily.  He tried retirement once before and did not especially enjoy it.  The chances of Democrats, in Washington or in New Jersey, convincing him to walk away from his Senate seat early is slim to none.

Democrats have a short window before Christie takes office to pass a new law that would change the way U.S. Senate vacancies are filled.  If Lautenberg's service in the Senate were to end over the next four years, Christie could appoint a Republican to fill his seat.  There could be a special election in November 2010 - the mid-term election year of a Democratic president - or in November 2011, when it might be tougher to turn out voters. 

There are two ways Democrats could go: the power of filling U.S. Senate seats could be taken away from the governor, with the seat remaining vacant until a special election could be held perhaps sixty days later; or forcing the governor to appoint someone from a list of names supplied to them by the political party that held the seat - a move that would trigger a vote of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee with the top three candidates being presented to Christie.

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