Christine Todd Whitman

In January, Jon Corzine will become New Jersey's sixth living former elected Governor.  That's the most since Robert Meyner became Governor in January 1954, with former Governors Walter Edge, James Fielder, Morgan Larson, Harold Hoffman, Charles Edison, and Alfred Driscoll still alive. 

New Jersey has elected different governors in each of the last four elections, and six different governors over the last seven elections.  New Jersey Democrats have not re-elected a governor since 1977, and the only Democrats to win re-election since then were Bill Bradley (in 1984 and 1990), and Frank Lautenberg (in 1988, 1994 and 2008). 

In addition to Brendan Byrne, Thomas Kean, James Florio, Christine Todd Whitman, and James E. McGreevey, there are two unelected former governors still living: Donald DiFrancesco and Richard Codey.

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees have met in a Word Series only once before: in 1950.  The Governor of New Jersey was Alfred Driscoll, a Republican from Haddonfield and a serious Phillies fan. There were no statewide elections that year, and thirteen Congressmen running for re-election won; the GOP held an open seat in the old seventh district (Bergen County in those days) with 70% of the vote.

The Phillies have only been in the World Series during one New Jersey gubernatorial election year: 1993, when Republican Christine Todd Whitman ousted incumbent James Florio, a Camden County Democrat. 

New Jersey has elected Governors eleven times in a year when the Yankees won the World Series.  Democrats have won in seven of those years, and the Republicans in four.  In those years, when the Democrats win the governorship, the Yankees win the World Series 57% of the time; when the GOP elects a Governor, the Yankees are world champions 75% of the time.

Jon Corzine is pushing independents who don't like him to vote for Christopher Daggett, former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman told Fox Business News today.

"He's the one who I think could make a difference.  The Corzine people want to keep his numbers at 12.  They figure if they keep his numbers at 12, they'll win, because they've been absolutely unable to move Jon Corzine's numbers up," Whitman said.  "He cannot get out of the 40's.  He is not popular, and they can't win if they run it on just Corzine himself, so they've got to go after Chris Christie and try and drag him down.  Now they're urging people, quietly, to support Chris Daggett because by doing that they figure they'll split the independent vote."

If Jon Corzine wins re-election, it will be the first time since 1961 that any political party has won three consecutive races for Governor of New Jersey.  If Christopher Christie wins, he will become the first Governor to win his first statewide campaign since 1973.

Republicans won in 1946 and 1949, Democrats in 1953, 1957, 1961 and 1965, Republicans in 1969, Democrats in 1973 and 1977, Republicans in 1981 and 1985, Democrats in 1989, Republicans in 1993 and 1997, and Democrats in 2001 and 2005.

Since Brendan Byrne won in 1973 - his first bid for public office -- future Governors had made prior statewide bids: Thomas Kean lost a 1977 GOP gubernatorial primary before winning in 1981; Jim Florio was elected in 1989 after losing the 1977 Democratic primary and the 1981 general election; Christine Todd Whitman lost a race for U.S. Senate three years before winning the 1993 gubernatorial campaign; James E. McGreevey lost to Whitman in 1997 and won in 2001; and Corzine had run successfully for the U.S. Senate before running for Governor.

In 1993, the last time a Democratic Governor ran for re-election, Jim Florio won the newspaper endorsement game.  He beat Christine Todd Whitman 16-7, and dominated among the largest newspapers.  Florio's endorsements included the Star-Ledger, The Record, the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Trenton Times, the Asbury Park Press, the Trenton Times, the Courier-Post, the Daily Record, and the Press of Atlantic City.  Whitman's endorsements included the Trentonian, the Home News Tribune, the Courier-News, the Burlington County Times, and the Wall Street Journal. 

Since 1961, the New York Times has endorsed the winner in nine of the last twelve campaigns for Governor of New Jersey.   They have also backed incumbents in each of the last six races where a sitting Governor sought re-election, including their support of Gov. Jon Corzine, and have backed Democrats nine times and Republicans three times.

In races where incumbents were seeking second terms, the New York Times endorsed Christine Todd Whitman in 1997, James Florio in 1993, Thomas Kean in 1985, Brendan Byrne in 1977,and Richard Hughes in 1965.  Florio, Byrne and Hughes were Democrats; Whitman and Kean were Republicans.  Only Florio was defeated; he lost to Whitman.

In contests for open seats, the New York Times backed Corzine in 2005, James E. McGreevey in 2001, Florio in 1989, Kean in 1981, Byrne in 1973, Robert Meyner in 1969, and James Mitchell in 1961.  Kean and Mitchell were Republicans.  Meyner, a former  two-term Governor seeking a comeback, and Mitchell, who was U.S. Secretary of Labor in the Eisenhower administration, were defeated.  Meyner lost to William Cahill and Hughes defeated Mitchell.

Gov. Jon Corzine enters the final weeks of his re-election campaign with an upside-down 39%-56% job approval rating.  For comparison purposes, Gov. Christine Todd Whitman was at 53%-43% when she was narrowly re-elected twelve years ago.  New Jersey's last two Governors were popular on Election Day - Richard Codey had a job approval of 68%-16% in 2005, and Donald DiFrancesco was at 60%-14% in 2001 - but they were not candidates for re-election. (These are all Quinnipiac numbers)

One comparison for Corzine and Republican Christopher Christie could be the 2006 U.S. Senate race between Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Thomas Kean, Jr., which was fought against the backdrop of ethics issues and a strong political environment.  In an October 12 Quinnipiac poll, Menendez led Kean 49%-45%.  Menendez, who had been appointed to the Senate ten months earlier, had split favorables: 32%-32%; Kean, the son of a popular former governor, was at 34%-18%.

Twelve years ago, New Jersey Democrats were begging - literally - for the Democratic National Committee and President Bill Clinton for help in the race for Governor.  National Democrats saw polling that had popular Republican Gov. Christine Todd Whitman ahead of Democrat James E. McGreevey, a one-term State Senator and Mayor of Woodbridge who was good on message discipline. The DNC pollster, Mark Penn, said McGreevey had no chance.  But in New Jersey, Democrats sensed an opportunity.  National Democrats viewed Virginia as the more winnable race, and poured millions of dollars into the campaign of Lt. Gov. Donald Beyer. 

On Election Day, Beyer lost 56%-43% to Republican James Gilmore, the state Attorney General. McGreevey came within one percentage point of upsetting Whitman, 47%-46%, a margin of 25,426 votes.  Some New Jersey Democrats still think Whitman would have lost if they DNC had helped.

New Jersey's three women Sheriffs: Kim Guadagno (R-Monmouth), Deborah Trout (R-Hunterdon) and Jean Stanfield (R-Burlington)

As a candidate for newly-created post of Lt. Governor, Kim Guadagno becomes the fifth woman nominated by a major party to run statewide in New Jersey.  The first was Thelma Parkinson, who ran for a two-month unexpired term in the United States Senate in 1930, followed by Millicent Fenwick (U.S. Senate, 1982), Mary Mochary (U.S. Senate, 1984), and Christine Todd Whitman (U.S. Senate, 1990; Governor, 1993 and 1997).  Parkinson was a Democrat; Fenwick, Mochary and Whitman were nominated by the Republicans.

Guadagno is one of three women Sheriffs in New Jersey, and only the fifth woman to win election as Sheriff in a state that has elected Sheriffs since the 18th century.

She also becomes the first county official to run for statewide office in a general election since Essex County Executive Peter Shapiro ran for Governor in 1985.

Pollsters got it wrong the last two times a Democratic Governor ran for re-election:  an August 1993 Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Gov. James Florio leading Republican Christine Todd Whitman by nine points, 49%-40%; and Republican Raymond Bateman led Gov. Brendan Byrne by seven points, 46%-39%, in an August 1977 Eagleton-Rutgers poll.

In 1993, Florio had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 49%-40%.  31% rated his job as excellent or good, 36% said he was a fair governor, and 23% rated him as poor.

In 1977, 28% of New Jerseyans viewed Byrne as an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job.

Whitman beat Florio 49%-48%, and Byrne was re-elected by a 56%-42% margin over Bateman.

Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trails Republican Christopher Christie by 12 points, 53%-41%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  Christie is the first Republican to be over 50% in a summer poll since Thomas Kean ran for re-election 24 years ago.

Corzine has upside-down favorables/unfavorables of 34%-58%, and an upside-down job approval rating of 33%-60%. 

In his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, Democrat Robert Torricelli had upside-down favorable/unfavorable rating of 15%-36% and an upside-down job approval rating of 28%-49% in an August 2002 Quinnipiac poll. In an August 2008 Quinnipiac poll, President George W. Bush had an upside-down job approval rating of 26%-70%.