Brigid Harrison

There’s no doubt that that the latest Quinnipiac poll numbers look much better for Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie than they do for incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine.  But the poll does contain a couple glimmers of hope for Corzine, along with a cautionary number for Christie, according to political observers. 

Meanwhile, nobody agrees on what effect independent candidate Christopher Daggett will have on the race. 

Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State, said that Corzine faces more than just the obvious problems of an upside down approval rating, a negative favorability rating, a big gap in independent support and a 10 point deficit in a head-to-head match-up with Christie.  It’s the 52% of respondents who see him as “cold and businesslike."

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Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie should win the primary tomorrow by a double-digit margin and will not have a hard time healing the Republican divide, according to four New Jersey political experts.

Montclair State Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison predicts that Christie will beat rival Steven Lonegan, the former Mayor of Bogota, by a margin of 12-15%, depending, of course, on turnout.

Patrick Murray, a pollster and political science professor at Monmouth University, gives Christie a likely win by a margin of 18% -- 58% to 40% -- assuming that about 300,000 voters show up to the polls.  A higher turnout, he said, will boost Christie's margin of victory to 22%, while a lower one will narrow it to about 13%.  He put Assemblyman Rick Merkt's (R-Mendham) likely showing at about 2%.

Ingrid Reed, who directs the Eagleton Institute's New Jersey Project, thinks that Christie will likely win with a margin "well over 10%."  But another win for Christie would be a large turnout, said Reed, because it "would signal there is momentum for the party and that the organization was organized and active."

Seton Hall Political Science Professor Joseph Marbach calls a 19% victory for Christie - 58% to 39% -- with a Republican voter turnout of about 30%, which works out to about 300,000 based on the latest available party registration statistics (whether there will be a drop off in registered Republicans since last year's presidential election remains to be seen).

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Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie had to come out and directly address issues relating to the way he awarded federal monitoring contracts, according to three non-partisan political analysts.

The question, however, is whether Christie snuffed out growing media attention that has questioned his command of the issue that is supposed to be his strong suit: ethics.

Christie yesterday opened himself up to any question reporters had about allegations of cronyism and pay-to-play from his opponents and political commentators.  At issue was his appointment of David Kelley, the former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, to a federal monitoring contract; $23,800 in donations to his campaign from the law firm Stern & Kilcullen, which he had earlier appointed to monitor the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey; and the one-and-a -half year old story about awarding of a federal monitoring contract with $27 to $52 million to his former boss, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft.

"It wasn't going to go away.  He has to tackle them head-on because he can't be seen to be ignoring them," said Peter Woolley, a pollster and political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University.  "And they're still not going to go away, because the campaign tactic book dictates that you always hit somebody in their strength.  So if his strength is integrity, or at least that's what the public's perception of his strength is, then the tactic book says that's where you have to tear him down."

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Anything less than a win at Saturday's Union County Republican Convention and Chris Christie's campaign would hear echoes of Anne Evans Estabrook, whose 2008 U.S. Senate bid began to unravel after State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio beat her in Union County.

It would be similarly problematic if conservative Steve Lonegan, who has spent most of the last five years running for Governor, finishes below second place.

But then what happens appears less predictable, less solid, as Franklin Township Mayor Brian D. Levine and Assemblyman Richard Merkt (R-Mendham) battle in the real contest of the day: a contest for third place between two other contenders eager to break out of a field that has grown to seven candidates for the chance to take on Gov. Jon Corzine in November.

Already, the Merkt campaign is minimizing expectations. The candidate is leaving the state tonight for a business trip.

 "I actually have to work for a living," Merkt, a corporate attorney, told PolitickerNJ.com. "I have to feed my family."

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The internal fight in the Passaic County Regular Republican Organization took an amusing turn today.

First, a splinter Republican group called GOP Strong -- which has been highly critical of Assemblyman and Passaic County Republican Chairman Scott Rumana (R-Wayne) -- issued a press release casting doubt on Rumana’s effectiveness and earnestness in his fight against Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) regulations.

Half an hour later, Rumana issued a press release announcing that he had been named “Legislator of the Year” by the Building Officials Association of New Jersey because of his opposition to the new COAH rules.

That drew a follow-up press release from GOP Strong, claiming that Rumana was touting the award as a “desperate attempt to demonstrate the he actually matters in Trenton,” and that the organization is “made up of a handful of bureaucrats who enforce onerous building codes in New Jersey.”

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After blind rabbi/psychologist Dennis Shulman’s impressing fundraising, extensive press coverage and a Democratic wave, U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) still managed to easily hold on to his seat on Tuesday.

The margin was even one point wider than in 2006, when Democrat Paul Aronsohn didn’t have nearly as many resources at his disposal.

“I think it really honestly was his message, especially his fiscal conservatism.  The smaller government, less taxes message really resonates with 5th District voters,” said Garrett Campaign Manager Amanda Gasperino.  “We did a really good job getting his message out and communicating it effectively, which is why you saw an even larger win this cycle.”

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It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory. Read More >

On this final weekend before the election, NJN’s On the Record will feature a discussion of the U.S. Senate debate with Republican political analyst Roger Bodman, former Governor Jim Florio, Montclair State Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison and Monmouth University professor/pollster Patrick Murray.

That show, hosted by Michael Aron, will air Sunday at 9 and 11a.m., and again on Monday at 6:30a.m

On Reporter’s Roundtable, Aron will host Jonathan Tamari of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Charles Stile of the Bergen Record, Kevin McArdle of Millennium Radio and Matt Friedman of PolitickerNJ.com.  The reporters will discuss the U.S. Senate and Congressional races.  It airs today at 7p.m. and Sunday at 10a.m.

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Last week, the non-partisan Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed a hypothetical 2009 gubernatorial race in a dead heat, with U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by just one point - 41%-40% -- well within that poll's plus or minus 2.5% margin of error. But a new Zogby International poll released today, conducted for Garden State Equality, shows Corzine with nine point lead over Christie.

Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson said the numbers show today's poll slightly skewered towards Democrats. As of June 3rd - after a huge influx of new Democratic registrants for the February presidential primary and, to a lesser extent, Republican ones -- New Jersey had 1.68 million registered Democrats, 1.03 million registered Republicans and 2.23 unaffiliated/independent voters. The poll's sample group was made up of 331 Democrats, 226 Republicans and only 246 independent/unaffiliated voters.

"We know in New Jersey that's not exactly how the makeup goes," said Wilson.

Still, Wilson said, the poll shows troubling numbers for Corzine.

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Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

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