Bob Franks

Richard Bagger first showed a penchant for making a reasonable argument as an eighteen-year-old Princeton University sophomore when he testified before Assembly Judiciary Committee in support of legislation that would raise the age for carry-out alcohol sales while allowing the drinking age in bars and restaurants to remain at 18.  He argued that the compromise would at least stop teenagers from being able to buy large quantities of liquor that could be distributed to underage drinkers.  The sponsor of that bill was Chuck Hardwick, a freshman Assemblyman from Bagger's hometown, Westfield.  Twelve years later, Hardwick backed Bagger's bid to succeed him in the Legislature. 

Gov.-elect Christopher Christie announced today that the 49-year-old Bagger would serve as Co-Chairman of his transition task force on budget and tax issues.

Bagger became involved in politics at a young age, backing George H.W. Bush for President in 1980 and Thomas Kean for Governor in 1981.  At age 23, as a Rutgers law student, Bagger was elected Westfield Councilman.  He became Mayor six years later.  When he ran for Assemblyman in 1991, he just narrowly won the Union County GOP convention against Alan Augustine, a Union County Freeholder and former Scotch Plains Mayor.  Augustine joined Bagger in the Assembly a year later when he won a special election convention and they two became political allies.

After winning an Assembly seat, Bagger sought an ethics ruling about his position as an associate at McCarter & English, one of the state's largest and most prestigious law firms. Told that he might have a conflict because some of his firm's clients did business with the state, Bagger quit his job.  He spent some time as a lawyer at Blue Cross/Blue Shield of New Jersey before joining Pfizer at the invitation of Hardwick, a top executive.

Since 1961, the New York Times has endorsed the winner in nine of the last twelve campaigns for Governor of New Jersey.   They have also backed incumbents in each of the last six races where a sitting Governor sought re-election, including their support of Gov. Jon Corzine, and have backed Democrats nine times and Republicans three times.

In races where incumbents were seeking second terms, the New York Times endorsed Christine Todd Whitman in 1997, James Florio in 1993, Thomas Kean in 1985, Brendan Byrne in 1977,and Richard Hughes in 1965.  Florio, Byrne and Hughes were Democrats; Whitman and Kean were Republicans.  Only Florio was defeated; he lost to Whitman.

In contests for open seats, the New York Times backed Corzine in 2005, James E. McGreevey in 2001, Florio in 1989, Kean in 1981, Byrne in 1973, Robert Meyner in 1969, and James Mitchell in 1961.  Kean and Mitchell were Republicans.  Meyner, a former  two-term Governor seeking a comeback, and Mitchell, who was U.S. Secretary of Labor in the Eisenhower administration, were defeated.  Meyner lost to William Cahill and Hughes defeated Mitchell.

The two major party candidates for governor are not likely to agree on a rather complex issue: does the private investment firm Texas Pacific Group (TPG) have a clear connection to TPG-Axon, a hedge fund run out of the same office?

Gov. Jon Corzine has some of his personal fortune invested with TPG-Axon, which sounds similar to TPG.  Corzine maintains that the two companies have separate identities, and that it is unfair to accuse him of having a financial interest in casinos when it's TPG, not TPG-Axon, that invests in the gaming industry.   Republican Christopher Christie thinks that two companies run by the same people sharing the same office are essentially the same company.

The 2009 campaign includes other allegations where both sides have very different views of the world.  And New Jersey politics has a history of similar unsolved mysteries:

Christopher Christie, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 50%-40% in today's Quinnipiac University poll, is the first Republican in twelve years to lead in a statewide race in June, and is likely the first Republican since Thomas Kean, Sr. in 1985 to be at 50% just after the primary election.

Past Quinnipiac University polls:

Last Friday, May 15th, would have been my father's 95th birthday.  During World War II Abraham Sabrin was a partisan commander in his native Poland where he led 231 men and women in combat against the Nazis.  He and his comrades-in-arms were finally liberated by the Russians in July 1944.   After the war my parents decided to immigrate to America, and on August 6, 1949 our family arrived in New York in order to live a free and peaceful society. 

Dad provided invaluable advice while I was growing up in Manhattan and the Bronx:"Get an education; there is a right way and wrong way...always go the right way."  And when I told him, in 1997, I was running for governor, Dad did not hesitate to offer this gem:  "Remember, politics is dirty."  Although Dad did not have a Ph.D. in political science, he understood human nature and American politics very, very well.

Former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler thinks that Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan's flat tax plan could be good for New Jersey in the long run, but that it is not politically feasible.

"What Steve is talking about is a very dramatic change in our tax system which would have more people having increased taxes and some having lower taxes. In the long term you can make an argument that it would be pro-growth, but I don't think politically you can get it implemented," said Schundler during a conference with Lonegan's rival for the nomination, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie.  "It's just not realistic. When you have most people having a tax increase, you won't get the support necessary for it."

Schundler, a conservative who upset Bob Franks in 2001 to win the Republican nomination for governor and lost the 2005 gubernatorial primary to Douglas Forrester in a race that included Lonegan, was mayor of Jersey City from 1992 to 2001.  He planned to run to retake the mayoralty this year, but opted out in January, citing personal financial difficulties.

Schundler said that Christie's plan to cut taxes for everyone after first decreasing government spending was more viable.

"How do you get political support for making taxes go down?  You have to make everyone's taxes go down," he said.

Christie chimed in by panning Lonegan's tax plan, which, combined with Lonegan's support for ending the property tax rebates, would hit senior citizens with a "double whammy."

"In these difficult economic times, with people worrying about how they're going to keep their job, keep their mortgage... to raise taxes on 70% of New Jersey residents during recessionary economic times is just wrong," he said (The Lonegan camp puts the estimated number of New Jerseyans who will see their taxes rise at about 50%).

The death of Jack Kemp leaves six living former unsuccessful major party nominees for Vice President: Sargent Shriver (1972), Bob Dole (1976), Geraldine Ferraro (1984), Joe Lieberman (2000), John Edwards (2004) and Sarah Palin (2008).  There are also five living former Vice Presidents.  Of the six, three -- Dole, Lieberman and Edwards -- carried New Jersey.

In New Jersey, there are eleven living former unsuccessful major party candidates for United States Senator: Warren Wilentz (1966), David Norcross (1976), Jeff Bell (1978), Mary Mochary (1984), Peter Dawkins (1988), Christine Todd Whitman (1990), Chuck Haytaian (1994), Dick Zimmer (1996 and 2008), Bob Franks (2000), Douglas Forrester (2002) and Tom Kean, Jr. (2006).

New Jersey also has five living unsuccessful major party candidates for Governor: Raymond Bateman (1977), Peter Shapiro (1985), Jim Courter (1989), Bret Schundler (2001), and Douglas Forrester (2005).  Two other losing gubernatorial candidates, Jim Florio (1981 and 1993) and James E. McGreevey (1997) were subsequently elected Governor.

The fifteen-member Ocean County Republican Screening Committee has voted to endorse former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.  If Christie wins the Republican convention next Monday, he'll run on the organization line in the June primary.  But the line has not delivered a plurality of Ocean County primary voters in a contested gubernatorial primary since 1993.   

A victory at the screening committee four years ago did not assure Morris County Freeholder John Murphy the organization line in the 2005 gubernatorial primary.  A week later, Murphy lost the convention on the second ballot to Washington Township Committeeman Robert Schroeder by a 52%-25% margin, with Douglas Forrester finishing third.  In the Republican primary, Forrester carried Ocean County by a 37%-27% margin over Bret Schundler, with Schroeder finishing third with 15%, followed by Steve Lonegan (15%), Murphy (6%), Paul DiGaetano (6%) and Todd Caliguire (2%). 

Senate Majority Leader Stephen Sweeney gets much of the credit for making Gloucester County solidly Democratic.

Gloucester County Republicans are facing a contested race for the leadership of a party that has not won a countywide election in twelve years, just as gubernatorial and legislative races present a possible opportunity for victory.  If Republicans are to win the race for Governor, they'll need to compete in places like Gloucester, which have voted consistently for Democratic statewide candidates in recent years.  But while Democrats win Gloucester, their margins of victory may not be insurmountable.

Democrats have an edge in voter registration, but 42% of the voters are not affiliated with either party.  Those are similar numbers to Atlantic (45%) and Burlington (41%) counties, where Republicans control the Freeholder boards.   The last Republicans to win a Freeholder races in Gloucester County were Mary Virginia Weber in 1995, and Daniel Mangini and Stephen Atkinson in 1994.

The last Republican victories in Gloucester were in 1997, when Chuck Gill was re-elected Sheriff and James Hogan was elected County Clerk.  Gill did not seek re-election in 2000, and Hogan switched parties before running for re-election in 2002.

2008 was a blowout for Democrats - Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg carried Gloucester by 17,000 votes, about 55%, and Stephen Sweeney won re-election to his Freeholder seat by 21,000 votes.  Warren Wallace, a Freeholder with a taint of ethical questions, still won re-election by 13,000 votes.  But statewide races have been a bit closer in recent years.  In 2006, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez won Gloucester by just 6,200 votes over Thomas Kean, Jr., even as Democratic Freeholder candidates were winning by 16,000.  In the2005 race for Governor, Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester there by 8,000 votes while Democrats were winning the Freeholder race by 14,000 votes.

Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan is confident he'll keep his matching funds as he pursues the Republican nomination for Governor.

Without commentary on the merits of an issue that threatens the public financing of Steve Lonegan's campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, one thing is an absolute certainty: if the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission were to rule that he was ineligible for matching funds - and if the courts were to back up the decision - it could mean the end of the Lonegan campaign.  Lonegan's strategy is dependent upon public financing that gives him $2 for every $1 he raises.

The ELEC investigation is the result of an Associated Press story that suggests the former Bogota Mayor was obligated to disclose the details of his relationship with Americans for Prosperity, an anti-tax lobbying group for whom he served as New Jersey Director.  State law requires candidates to disclose their connection to issue advocacy groups to avoid a conflict, such as avoiding spending limits that come with the public financing of gubernatorial elections.

The Lonegan campaign maintains that the candidate could not disclose AFP contributions, since he did not have access to their donor list.  And they say that AFP was created and organized more than seven years ago, before Lonegan was involved.

There is good news and bad news for Lonegan when it comes to ELEC.  It's helpful that the commission traditionally lacks extraordinary testicular fortitude. But it's potentially hurtful that the panel is hard to predict.  In 2001, they allowed former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks to simply take over the campaign treasury of Gov. Donald DiFrancesco when he replaced him on the ballot, and then allowed Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler to change his mind and accept public financing.