The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau shows New Jersey as likely to lose one congressional seat for the 2012 election.  New Jersey's estimated population is 8,707,739 - up 3.5%, but not enough to keep the state's thirteenth seat.  That would increase the size of each district from 647,258 in 2002 to 725,645 in 2012.  Unless someone retires, New Jersey will either see an incumbent vs. incumbent general election, or an incumbent vs. incumbent primary. 

In 1992, when New Jersey went from 14 seats to 13, two incumbents were put in the same district.  A primary was avoided when Bernard Dwyer (D-Edison) retired instead of facing Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) in the Democratic primary.  New Jersey went from 15 seats to 14 in 1982, but the district represented by Millicent Fenwick (R-Bernardsville) was eliminated when she entered the race for U.S. Senator.

A new report from the Census Bureau indicates that New Jersey is likely to lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in time for the 2012 elections.  That will offer numerous redistricting options for mapmakers after the 2010 census.  Over the coming weeks, PolitickerNJ.com will offer some of our own maps to demonstrate some potential scenarios as New Jersey moves from thirteen congressional districts to twelve.

Population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests that there is a chance that New Jersey could lose one congressional seat after the 2010 Census.  That would mean that the population of each district, which was at 647,258 after the last redistricting, could jump to more than 727,000 people per district.

Between 1962 and 1982, New Jersey had fifteen House seats.  The state lost one in 1982 (the old fifth district seat, occupied by Republican Millicent Fenwick, was eliminated; Fenwick was running for the U.S. Senate) and another in 1992 (two Democratic incumbents, Bernard Dwyer and Frank Pallone, were placed in the same district; Dwyer, a 72-year-old six-term Congressman, retired).

Population estimates for 2005, released his week by the U.S. Census Bureau, show that New Jersey's growth has slowed down considerably, and experts say that rising property taxes and housing costs is a signal that the state may not far well in five years when the next official count is taken. That could be bad news for New Jersey's congressional delegation: changes in the state's population in relation to faster growing areas of the nation, could mean a loss of one of the thirteen congressional seats in the 2012 election.

The loss of a congressional seat could create a myraid of redistricting scenarios to capture the imagination of political junkies: primaries between Frank LoBiondo and Jim Saxton or Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman; or even a general election matchup between Rush Holt and Chris Smith or Frank Pallone and Mike Ferguson. Only two seats are probably immune to the loss of a seat: the Voting Rights Act would likely protect Donald Payne and the winner of the open thirteen district seat, which is expected to go to a Hispanic.

The State Constitution requires congressional districts to be drawn by a bi-partisan panel, with the Senate President and Minority Leader, the Assembly Speaker and Minority Leader, and the two state party chairmen eaching naming two members. Whomever Governor Jon Corzine appoints as Chief Justice of the New Jersey Supreme Court this year will name the tie-breaking member of the congressional redistricting commission. Democrats could potentially seek a constitutional amendment that would return the role of drawing congressional districts to the Legislature (as it was until 1995), but one legislative leader says there has been no discussion of such a proposal.

New Jersey lost a House seat after the 1980 census and another ten years later. In 1982, mapmakers eliminated the seat of Millicent Fenwick, who was running for the U.S. Senate, and in 1992, Democratic Congressmen Bernard Dwyer and Pallone were placed in the same district; Dwyer retired instead of taking on Pallone.