Ben Dworkin

Most polls showed the gubernatorial race as a dead heat, but Quinnipiac (the big one)  showed Gov. Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie by 5%.  According to the New York Times, Corzine stood by the dead asset monetization plan he proposed two years ago, giving Republicans perfect political ammunition (Corzine argued that the paper got it wrong).  Corzine brought in Bill Clinton again.  Eleven day pre-election reports show Corzine outspending Christie three to one.  Independent Chris Daggett had to deal with the conspiracy theory that he is in the race to intentionally spoil it for Christie.  A focus group found that voters like Daggett, but don’t want to vote for someone they think will lose.  And the Phillies beat the Yankees in the first game of the World Series.

So who won the final full week before the election?  Four out of our five panelists said there was no clear victor, while one awarded the win to Corzine.

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After trailing in the polls since February, Jon Corzine finally saw one where he led Chris Christie – even if only by a statistically insignificant one point.  Several other polls also showed the race in a dead heat, or Christie only slightly ahead.  Corzine outlined how he plans to slash the deficit in the next four years, although Christie jumped on him for planning it partly by extending a tax on the wealthy.  And lieutenant governor candidates Loretta Weinberg, Kim Guadagno and Frank Esposito engaged in a contentious debate.

So who won the week?  Two of our experts said Corzine, one picked Guadagno, and one chose nobody. 

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Two non-partisan polls came out showing Jon Corzine closing the gap with Chris Christie.  Independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett laid out a detailed plan to cut property taxes.  South Jersey was victorious in the senate leadership contest, toppling the most popular political figure in the state from the senate presidency, but with no apparent effect (so far) on the gubernatorial race.  It looks like Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) will by the new speaker.  And Christie, Corzine and Daggett had their first debate.  

So who won the week?  Daggett, according to all but one academic PolitickerNJ.com asked. 

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It wasn’t the most exciting week in New Jersey gubernatorial politics.  The unemployment rate went up again.  Governor Corzine touted a decrease in uninsured New Jerseyans.  A Monmouth University poll showed Chris Christie ahead of Corzine, but his leadshrank from the previous month.  Corzine agreed to do a debate on a jazz format public radio station, but avoided 101.5fm and the League of Women Voters/ABC televised debates.  Jeb Bush turned up unexpectedly at a Christie fundraiser (although they had a name tag ready for him).   And Chris Daggett said he’ll sue over ballot position. 

Still, this close to the election, everything counts. So who won the week? 

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Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman's marathon of "Second Chance" hearings across the state is widely seen first and foremost as an initiative brought about by a personal struggle: watching her two sons return from 5 1/2 year prison stints for robbing a clothing store at gun point.

But with Watson Coleman's name widely assumed to be on Governor Jon Corzine's shortlist of potential running mates, some insiders see it as an audition as well.

While not doubting her personal connection and passion for the cause, some observers see Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) as building name ID across the state and taking ownership of an issue that appeals to the inner city, minority base whose large turnout Corzine may need to win reelection.

"In a state where there are not many well-known candidates for any statewide office at this point beyond Gov. Corzine and Chris Christie, she would certainly be an attractive candidate who can go out there and get her name better known," said Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards.  "It's logical that she do this kind of thing, and she has a message.  Unlike officials who represent a single geographic area, it goes beyond her constituency and it's attractive." Read More >

Democrats seem determined to tie former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie to President Bush if he becomes the Republican nominee for Governor, but Christie’s allies say that it was the ex-Prosecutor’s friend and top strategist, William Palatucci, who avidly championed Bush when he began running for President in the late 1990’s.

Christie, who was Palatucci’s law partner, raised money for George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign as part of a bigger effort coordinated by Palatucci, a veteran Republican operative who ran campaigns for Ronald Reagan, Thomas Kean and George H.W. Bush.

“It’s hard to imagine the Democrats not using every opportunity possible to highlight the fact that Chris Christie was part of an effort that raised significant money for George W. Bush, one of the most unpopular politicians in a generation” said Ben Dworkin, director of the David Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “He’s had an outstanding career as U.S. Attorney. But the connection is different from the one the Democrats tried to use against U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance.”

Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood), the Democratic candidate for Congress against Lance, ran repeated TV ads of Lance’s face interposed with that of Bush.  Lance won by nine percentage points.

“But Christie’s different than Lance because Lance didn’t become an assemblyman and senator because George Bush picked him,” said Dworkin. “Christie became U.S. Attorney because George Bush did.”

The main strand of the Bush-Christie connection hinges on what for Palatucci was a fortuitous encounter with the younger Bush as the then-Texas governor geared up for his 2000 presidential campaign.

At that point, Palatucci’s relationship with the Bushes was already long and recurring, and it was in his role as the New Jersey chief of the presidential campaigns of Bush’s father that he developed a relationship with the younger Bush.

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Former union leader and ex-gubernatorial girlfriend Carla Katz will do a one-on-one with Michael Aron this weekend on On the Record, airing Sunday at 9:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., and on Monday morning at 6:30 a.m. They’ll talk about the ongoing email saga, union politics and Katz’s life in general.

Tonight at 7:00, I’ll be on Reporters Roundtable with Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. The show, also hosted by Aron, will air again on Sunday at 10:00 a.m.

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Before he passed away last year, Rider University Professor David Rebovich was the most quoted man in New Jersey politics.  The media, including PolitickerNJ.com, depended on Rebovich nearly every day for his thoughtful, independent analysis of New Jersey politics.  His successor as Director of Rider’s Institute of New Jersey Politics, former Democratic operative Ben Dworkin, doesn’t have the same gravitas – and has some conflicts that should prevent his ability to comment on certain issues.

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This week's Winners & Losers: Click here

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