Arline Friscia

The race to watch this month is in the nineteenth district, where South Amboy Mayor Jack O'Leary is challenging incumbent Joseph Vas for the Democratic State Assembly nomination.  The Middlesex County Democratic organization will decide which candidate will run on the line at their March 18 convention.  Local pundits suggest that the race could be close. 

The other incumbent, Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Sayreville) has no apparent obstacles in his bid for renomination.

The upset defeat of Perth Amboy Mayor Joseph Vas will impact next year’s race for the Legislature.  Sources say that Vas, without his power base as Mayor, is now likely to lose Democratic Party support if he seeks re-election to the State Assembly.  One possible candidate to replace him is Jack O’Leary, the Mayor of South Amboy. 

Republican-turned-Democrat Francis Bodine won just 39% of the vote in his bid for a State Senate seat -- not much better than the 33% that Democrat Thomas Price won against Martha Bark in 2003, without the benefit of campaign funds and staff. Bodine won the same percentage as Gary Haman did against Bark in 2001, and ran six points behind Democratic Senate candidate Marie Hall in 1997.

Republicans could be looking at gaining seats in the Assembly tonight, depending upon the outcome of some hotly contested races. Best case scenario: +6; worst case scenario is -7.

The GOP could pick up two seats in District 1, and one seat each in Districts 2, 8, 12 and 14, and not lose Republicans seats in Districts 2, 8, 11, 12, 14, and 39. Democrats would keep the majority, 44-36.

New Jersey voters traditionally have a distaste for party switchers at the state legislative level, not returning recent switchers to Trenton. Party switches occur almost always as a means of extending a political career, rather than some ideological shifts.