Anne Estabrook

Franklin Mayor Brian D. Levine, left, and Assemblyman Rick Merkt are polling at 5% and 2%, respectively, in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor.

Anything less than a win at Saturday's Union County Republican Convention and Chris Christie's campaign would hear echoes of Anne Evans Estabrook, whose 2008 U.S. Senate bid began to unravel after State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio beat her in Union County.

It would be similarly problematic if conservative Steve Lonegan, who has spent most of the last five years running for Governor, finishes below second place.

But then what happens appears less predictable, less solid, as Franklin Township Mayor Brian D. Levine and Assemblyman Richard Merkt (R-Mendham) battle in the real contest of the day: a contest for third place between two other contenders eager to break out of a field that has grown to seven candidates for the chance to take on Gov. Jon Corzine in November.

Already, the Merkt campaign is minimizing expectations. The candidate is leaving the state tonight for a business trip.

 "I actually have to work for a living," Merkt, a corporate attorney, told PolitickerNJ.com. "I have to feed my family."

Frank Lautenberg, who has never amassed huge approval ratings in independent polls and has never won more than 55% of the vote in a general election, appears likely to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history.  The 84-year-old Democrat  is positioned to break Clifford Case's record of 24 years in statewide office in December.  He has already passed Harrison Williams for number two on that list.

Some analysts say that Lautenberg has been lucky -- the fortunate beneficiary of the Republicans nominating the wrong candidate in each of his elections.  His first campaign was against Millicent Fenwick, an iconic 72-year-old Congresswoman who was the model for Doonsbury's Lacey Davenport character.  But Fenwick refused to raise PAC money and couldn't compete with Lautenberg's vast self-financed warchest.  Old-time GOP'ers say that Jim Courter, then a two-term Congressman, would have been a stronger candidate for the open Senate seat. 

State Sen. Joe Pennacchio gave up his delegate slot to stay in New Jersey for Labor Day weekend
BLOOMINGTON, Minn. While New Jersey Republicans gather for their convention, one person who’s staying home is state Sen. Joe Pennacchio, who was supposed to be a delegate.

Speaking to PolitickerNJ two weeks ago, Pennacchio (R-Montville) said he wouldn’t be attending for a number of reasons. For one, he decided after his U.S. Senate primary campaign to spend more time with his family. He also wants to spend more time focusing on his legislative career and his dental practice. But there’s something else too.

“To be honest with you, I didn’t want to party with the party leaders. The leaders everyone was talking about in my campaign,” said Pennacchio, whose delegate spot has been replaced by former Morris County Freeholder John Inglesino. “I have an indifference towards them as much as they have an indifference towards me.”

State Sen. Diane Allen, recovering from pneumonia that has sidelined her for much of the year, says she has no plans to retireState Sen. Diane Allen set the record straight today, denying rumors that she’s considering retirement due to health issues.

“There is no truth to that. Absolutely not,” said Allen in a phone interview this morning.

Allen has been suffering through a severe bout of pneumonia for most of the year, which has left her unable to attend some legislative sessions, including recent ones on the budget. It also kept her from considering a U.S. Senate bid earlier this year after she was courted by party leaders to replace Anne Evans Estabrook, who pulled out of the race after suffering a minor stroke.

State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio lost his bid for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination
While dozens of candidates were making last minute appeals on primary day, Republican Senate candidate Joe Pennacchio spent the afternoon working on dental fillings and root canals. The next day, about 12 hours after congratulating rival Dick Zimmer on his victory, Pennacchio was at his Mount Arlington dental practice again, engaging in his pre and post-election routine: going to work.

“I make a habit of working my regular job on election day and the next morning,” he said. “It grounds me. It tells me who I am, gets me back with the people and in the mix.”

Pennacchio, a conservative, lost to the more moderate Zimmer, 46% to 40%, with Murray Sabrin, a finance professor at Ramapo College, taking 14% of the vote. But despite a respectable showing, Pennacchio was true to the persona he cultivated during the campaign, exemplified by his “Jersey Joe” moniker and the slogan that accompanied it: “He’s one of us!”

Former Rep. Dick Zimmer, right, won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, defeating Joe Pennachio and Murray Sabrin: Politicker PhotoPRINCETON - Former Congressman Dick Zimmer secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate tonight, defeating opponents state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and college professor Murray Sabrin.

"Two months ago, I never thought I'd be running for U.S. Senate let alone anything else," Zimmer said, flanked by party officials including state Sen. Bill Baroni and former U.S. Senate candidate Anne Estabrook, who dropped out of the primary contest due to health reasons.

Taking aim at his fall opponent, current U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg, Zimmmer said, "You cannot expect someone elected 26 years ago to be the agent of change that we need."

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FLEMINGTON – In less than a week, Dick Zimmer has gone from being a mere bystander in the race for United States Senator to being the front runner for the Republican nomination.

“This is a pivotal point in history. We have incredible economic challenges here at home, national and domestic security challenges,” said the former three-term Congressman, who lost a tough race for U.S. Senate to Bob Torricelli in 1996. “It’s a great opportunity to be able to have a chance to join the U.S. Senate and shape the course of history when there are such major debates any way.”

Zimmer said he received a call for a GOP County Chairman last Monday -- the day after biotech millionaire John Crowley said he would not run – and asked him to consider getting into the race if Goya Foods heir Andy Unanue dropped out of the race.

“I was an observer just like you. I had no expectation of being a candidate and I made no effort to become one,” he told PolitickerNJ.com. “I just wrote an email to everybody in my office in Washington saying that if this is a surprise to you, I assure you it’s a surprise to me.”

After less than three weeks as a U.S. Senate candidate, Andy Unanue formally withdrew his candidacy today. 

Saying that he has no regrets about stepping into the race, Unanue issued a statement today after his committee on vacancies filed paperwork with the Division of Elections designating former Rep. Dick Zimmer as his replacement.

Unanue cited business commitments and opportunities as his primary reason for withdrawal. 

"After much thought and careful consideration, I have decided to end my candidacy for U.S. Senate.  I made the decision to enter the race after serious deliberation and I have no regrets.  My decision to withdraw is based on an equally thorough deliberation,” he said.  "I have concluded that my extensive business commitments along with new business opportunities that have recently presented themselves would prevent me from dedicating myself fully to a statewide campaign."