Al Leiter

New Jersey's off-year elections and the competitive gubernatorial contest have stalled the start of the 2010 cycle.  That's great news for U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill), who still has no Republican opponent in a district that sent a Republican to Congress for 124 consecutive years until Adler won it with 52% in 2008.  Days after Adler won the seat last year, former major league baseball star Al Leiter said he would not run.  And last May, a millionaire self-funder the GOP was recruiting, Moorestown investor John Culbertson, said he would not run.

Adler's fundraising prowess is likely to scare away top tier challengers, like State Sen. Diane Allen (R-Edgewater Park), who some insiders would have won the seat last year if a local GOP feud hadn't kept her out of the race.  Adler raised $404,406 over the last three months and has amassed a $1,193,061 war chest; he raised more money than any other freshman Congressman. Unless there is a Republican Governor who can help level the financial playing field, it's possible that this seat won't be seriously contested.

Former Yankees/Mets all-star pitcher Al Leiter will headline a fundraising next week to raise money for the re-election campaign of Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz (R-Summit).  Munoz was elected last spring to fill the seat left vacant when her husband, Eric Munoz, died suddenly of a heart attack.  Leiter is a Toms River native who has said that he is interested in running for office someday.  He is a Republican.

Democrats and Republicans are slightly more likely to root for the Yankees than the Mets or Phillies than Independents, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today showing 44% of state voters interested in baseball say the New York Yankees are their favorite baseball team.  Democrats and Republicans are essentially the same when it comes to picking a baseball team.

21% of New Jersey voters say the New York Mets are their favorite team, and 20% say it is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Among Democrats: Yankees 46%, Phillies 21%, Mets 20%.
Among Republicans, Yankees 44%, Phillies 21%, Mets 20%
Among Independents: Yankees 41%, Mets 22%, Phillies 20%

"Dress New Jersey baseball fans - men and women, young and old - in Yankee pinstripes.  There are just about as many Yankee fans as there are Phillies and Mets backers combined.  Only in the Philadelphia suburbs do the Phillies dominate," said Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 

Some pundits view State Sen. Diane Allen, with U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance, as the strongest potential Republican challenger to freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler in 2010.

New Jersey Republicans will face some pressure from the national GOP over the next few months to settle on their candidate to challenge freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) in 2010.  Adler won the seat of retiring twelve-term Republican Jim Saxton last year with 52% -- the first Democrat to win the seat since Thomas Ferrell ousted two-term Republican George Robeson with 50.1% in 1882.

Republicans think they can beat Adler next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee is sending signals that they want the candidate in place soon so that he or she can begin fundraising.  That's what Adler did in 2006, before Saxton had announced his intention to retire.  If the third district Republican candidate does not meet certain early fundraising goals, sources say that the NRCC might not become fully engaged in the race, according to one House Republican staffer familiar with NRCC operations.

Getty Images Photo

Toms River native Al Leiter, who played for the Yankees and Mets, says he's unlikely to challenge John Adler for Congress in 2010

Former baseball star Al Leiter told PolitickerNJ.com's Matt Friedman yesterday that he was not likely to challenge John Adler for Congress in 2010, and an announcement today by Major League Baseball may explain why: MLB Network has hired Leiter, the YES Network color commentator, to join their studio team.  Leiter will appear on MLB Tonight and on Hot Stove, their off season show.  The Toms River native had told New Jersey Republicans as recently as October that he has a strong interest in running for office.

Toms River native Al Leiter, who played for the Yankees and the Mets, isn't likely to challenge U.S. Rep.-elect John Adler in 2010

Former baseball star Al Leiter said today that he will not likely run against Congressman-elect John Adler in 2010.

“I definitely have been curious enough to still be around the political scene… and my interest is there, while it’s stronger sometimes and weaker than others.  So that’s why I don’t ever dismiss the idea of running someday.  But I know I’m not ready now, and I’m almost certain that in 2010 I won’t be ready,” he said.

Some Republicans courted Leiter, a Toms River native who currently lives in Florida and works as a sports commentator, to run for in the 3rd Congressional District last year.  But Leiter said at the time that he’d rather get some local experience as an elected official, either in New Jersey or Florida, before running for federal office.

State Sen. Diane Allen (R-Edgewater Park) is a possible candidate for Congress against John Adler in 2010

If Republicans can't beat John Adler in 2010, chances are they never will.  If Adler wins a second term, watch for mapmakers to take take some heavily Republican Ocean County towns out of his district when new congressional districts are drawn for the 2012 elections.  Adler scored a 52%-48% victory last week over Republican Christopher Myers for the seat of retiring twelve term U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton -- a seat Democrats hadn't won since 1882.

Republican insiders say that Myers isn't likely to get a second shot at the seat, and that the favorite candidate could be former major league baseball pitcher Al Leiter.  Leiter, a Toms River native who has said he wants to run for office someday, has turned down several offers to seek U.S. Senate and House seats in recent years.  Other possible Adler opponents include: State Sen. Diane Allen (who must first heal wounds in a very fractured Burlington County Republican organization); State Sen. Phil Haines; Assemblywoman Dawn Addiego; Assemblyman Brian Rumpf; and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, who lost the '08 GOP primary to Myers.

If Republicans Scott Garrett, Christopher Myers and Leonard Lance win hotly contested House races next week, it is unlikely that Democrats would invest heavily in these traditionally GOP districts again in 2010.  But Democratic victories would make these districts battlegrounds in the 2010 mid-term elections.

If Garrett survives -- Politicker.com's The Pindell Report has the seat as Leans Republican -- he'll have a firm lock on the 5th district seat until at least 2012, when mapmakers draw new congressional districts.  But if blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman upsets Garrett, he'd immediately become one of the nation's most vulnerbale Democratic Congressmen. There is already talk among some Bergen County Republicans that Assemblyman David Russo would enter the race to challenge Shulman in 2010.  Russo sought the seat six years ago when Marge Roukema retired and lost to Garrett 45%-24% after splitting the Bergen GOP vote with State Sen. Gerald Cardinale.

Former baseball player Al Leiter says he won't enter the U.S. Senate race
One name floated in Republican to run for U.S. Senate now that Anne Evans Estabrook has dropped out is former baseball star Al Leiter, a New Jersey native.

But Estabrook’s withdrawal was news to Leiter, who lives in Florida, and her decision won’t change his mind about running.

“I was approached by some folks in Washington in regard to the third district for Mr. Saxton, and as I told them, I was intrigued with the process but I’m not ready,” he said. “I’m interested in many ways and different levels.”

One day after ex-baseball star Al Leiter said he wasn't running for U.S. Senate or Congress in 2008, the New York Post reports that rocker Jon Bon Jovi "could be planning one day to run for governor of New Jersey."