Wally,

Interesting you list feuding with Glenn Paulsen as a Liability for the Senator. The sooner people like you in the media realize that Glenn Paulsen is not the leader of BurlCo GOP the better off everyone will be.

Dawn Lacy is the chair and Senator Allen is actively supporting her. She is feuding with a former leader who holds no power over anything anymore. Doesn't seem like a big deal to me

I think Al Leiter would make for an interesting race.  He'd be much better of running for this seat than prematurely running for Statwide office as my buddy Dino Crocetti has been pushing for.

I think the big fight here is going to be between Ocean and Burlington for the GOP nomination...I don't see them getting a consensus candidate.

A bloody and expensive GOP primary is great news for Adler.

 I didnt realize that all Adler has in the district is Cherry Hill, is that true? not sure how well he can do if that is the case. Besides, the seat would easily go to Diane Allen over him, shes pretty popular.

 "I'm not going to tell you this to insult you, but in the end, the McGreeveys, the Corzines, they're all going to be with me...not that they like me, but because they have no choice."

- The Democrats' Puppet Master

A Republican wrote "Besides, the seat would easily go to Diane Allen over him [Adler], shes pretty popular." As someone who has campaigned in this district and who knows that both the DCCC recruited Adler and will be supporting him financially, I can assure you that this will be no easy victory for the Republican candidate. Right now, this district, which Bush barely won, could honestly swing either way; and I'm cautiously optimistic about Adler's chances against any Republican challenger. As someone who lives in Adler's senate district, I can personally attest to his leadership and ability to pass good legislation. Underestimate him at your peril.

As someone who campaigned in the district?  How many towns would that be?  And how did those elections go for your candidate?  Now back to reality, the right candidate will defeat Adler.  Yes Bush barely won the district in 2004 but he lost in 2000.  Maybe that is a trend that someone on this board loves to pontificate about?  Also, Adler's bill to end teaching students about the importance of Veterans Day an Memorial Day (thanks to all vets out here forserving our country) has pissed off the veteran organizations in NJ, not only in the 3rd.  Also, he was chair of the Judiciary Committee which recently passed a bill to end the death penalty.  That won't play in the majority of the district.  No defending that vote.  Leiter is not running.  Wish he would but he has young children in another state and would have to move back to make the run.  But some day...

njdems are corrupt - you are correct.  Cherry Hill is the only town in Camden County and thus, in Adler's district which overlaps Saxton's.  Redistricting carved out other Camden towns including Haddonfield and Waterford (towns that voted overwhelmingly for Saxton) as well as a few neighborhoods in other towns with a handful of voters.

Al Leiter has a couple things going for him:

1. He is not part of the Trenton crowd;

2. He is not part of the Washington crowd.

Nuff said about him.....

As for the topic, it will be an easy R hold, especially if Allen is the candidate.  Allen is well known and popular.....

Adler will be fully funded and this will be one of the few truly targeted seats by the DCCC in the northeast. At the same time, Republicans are making a comeback of sorts and the district leans Republican.

I think the top of the ticket will play a critical role in who wins the race. If the GOP has a Romney or Giuliani at the top, it will be very difficult for Adler. Compound that with a Clinton candidacy and you'll see Adler looking to Lautenberg for some degree of coattails.

The above poster, the oc, will have to understand if I consider his prognostication on the Adler v. unnamed Republican to be erroneous; after all, this is the same person who suggested that Don Sherwood would win in Pa, Ferguson would defeat Stender by double digits, and, rather scandalously, that war hero Max Cleland was just "showing off" and playing with a grenade that dismembered him.  And, though Sexton and Dennison did lose (though they were the superior candidates), my other candidates, Adler, Corzine and Menendez, among others, have indeed won.

The bottom line in 2008 will be the failure of the Republican Party, in the form of its leader Pres. Bush and its leaders in Congress, in the perpetual folly that is the Iraq War, ethics reform, domestic policies, including the building health care crises, and a host of other issues. According to a recent Pew Poll, Democrats lead Republicans by double digits on which party Americans trust on ethics, honesty and government management. Not only will the Republican nominee, who will emerge bruised from a primary battle buoyed by two corrupt political bosses (Gilmore and Paulsen), face this anti-Republican, anti-conservative sentiment, they will also have nearly no funds available from the Republican Congressional Committee, which has nearly $2 million in the bank in total; with seats probably turning Republican-to-Democratic in Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, and our own district 7, the Republican nominee can expect little support from the national party, this despite Allen's $2 million demand for an appearance fee, so to speak.

Put Adler against the Republican nominee in terms of health care, the environment, a sane foreign policy, Iraq, and other issues, and the vapidity of contemporary conservatism, arguably a dying movement, becomes all too apparent.

From Somerset "Kean Jr. can win very easily" Republican: "it [district 3] will be an easy R hold, especially if Allen is the candidate." One wonders, does the poster live in her/his own individual universe, where Republicans don't continue to lose state and nationwide? Perhaps the poster is still lamenting Santorum's loss for senate or lives under the illusion that Bush is doing a swell job in Washington, thus translating to Republican gains across the board? District 3 is a highly competitive district in 2008, and that is why politicsnj is hyping it up so much and why the DCCC recruited Adler and will be giving him funds for his strong campaign. Thanks for that penetrating political analysis, though, Somerset.