Quinnipiac: Clinton lead just 5 points; McCain has big lead

A new Quinnipiac poll has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama, 48%-43%: Getty Images Photo
Hillary Clinton's lead in New Jersey has shrunk to just five points and leads Barack Obama 48%-43% among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 52%-30%.

"Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The Quinnipiac poll mirrors one conducted at the end of last week by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg for George Norcross that showed Clinton ahead by six points. Clinton had a 17-point lead in a January 23 Quinnipiac poll, and had been ahead by as much as 34 points late last year.

For Clinton's Democratic voters, 78 percent say they are not likely to change their minds. Obama loyalty is at 78 percent also.

"New Jersey Democratic Party organizations are famous for getting out their vote in primary elections. When added to Sen. Clinton's strength among women, this could bring home the victory for the Senator next door," said Richards. "Three things will decide this race, turnout, turnout and turnout."

Among Republicans, 78 percent of McCain supporters and 68 percent of Romney backers say they are not likely to change their minds.

Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are each at 6%.

"With Rudy Giuliani out of the race, New Jersey Republicans have flocked to John McCain as their candidate for president. There was never much talk about Mitt Romney among New Jersey Republicans as the Garden State prepares to join in what could be a party coronation for war hero senator from Arizona on Super Tuesday."

From January 30 - February 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 350 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and 463 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.