New Jersey set to lose a House seat
By EditorNew Jersey is likely to lose a congressional seat after the 2010 Census, according to an Election Data Services report.
“The 2007 estimates bring the data one year closer to the official census that will be taken in 2010. The new information has allowed Election Data Services, Inc. to generate 2010 population projections based on several different models of change that is apparent in the newly released data,” the report said. “First, there is a ‘long-term’ trend model that reflects the overall change that has occurred so far this decade; that is from 2000 to 2007, and projects it to 2010. Second, a ‘midterm’ trend model uses the population change that has occurred from 2005 to 2007. Finally, a ‘short-term’ trend model incorporates the change that has occurred in just the past year, from 2006 to 2007, and carries that rate of change forward to 2010.”
Based on all three models of the 2010 projections, New Jersey will lose one of its thirteen House seats.
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- Jul 2 2009
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Who do we lose?
Which seat will we lose in this one?
The less influence New
The less influence New Jersey has in D.C. , the better off this country will be.
How about Robert Andrews seat? He doesn't do a thing anyway.
The Trend Must End
Points not mentioned in this piece but mentioned in the AP today is the fact that the decline/stagnant growth in NJ population started in 2002 and is directly related to lack of affordability. Know what else started in 2002? The domination of Democrat control and their corrupt policies in Trenton.
Study after study after study points to the fact that the policies instituted by the Dems in Trenton have had a direct and negative impact on the affordability in NJ and in particular the assult on the middle-class and businesses.
This trend must end and the knuckleheadedness (new word) of the D's and all of their new requirements placed on residents, municipalities and businesses must stop.
Losing a seat in DC is devastating and another reason why we need change in Trenton.
Totally agree betternj..
But the reality was the 1990's were too optimistic AND the Republicans proved themselves good at sprinting but not at the long-term of state governance. They became liberals too and were not pro-growth.
As for Andrews, after he crushes the radical Camden candidate in the primary of course, I would doubt any SJ seats would be lost. It's possible his seat will be expanded further south, but that only helps him in the part of the state where there are conservative Democrats. If him and LoBiondo ever ended up in the same district, I think LoBo would be done. He might be done anyway if Jeff Van Drew runs.
The north has to lose a seat. That is where population loss, not just stagnation, is occuring. Don't be surprised if the 10th District has lost people by 2010, and my guess is it will be extremely hard to maintain a black-majority district, though from the end of the year awards Payne might be gone anyway.
the dirty dozen
Given the non-existent population growth, it is no surprise all of the projection models show NJ losing a seat.
Both so-called "minority" seats are untouchable due to the Voting Rights Act. Both the 10th and 13th (to be renumbered) will be preserved but enlarged to take in more Democrat turf.
The South Jersey seats (i.e., those generally south of I-195) will remain relatively intact, although Andrews' seat will have to expand outward to make up for population shrinkage in Camden County.
An honest redrawing of the seats would remove the salamander 6th District, which winds from Belmar to Plainfield. Another option is to break apart the 8th, adding Paterson to one of the minority districts and spreading the rest to surrounding districts (9th, 7th, 10th, 5th).
If a GOPer wins the 7th and and gets reelected, that seat will be targeted for extinction. If a Dem wins, then it gets tougher to carve that many safe Dem seats, especially when the minority seats are packed with Dem voters.
FOR THE GOOD OF THE NATION,
WE SHOULD VOLUNTARILY GIVE UP TEN SEATS.
Figures...
I can't say this is much of a surprise. As more and more folks move out of state - no thanks to the current crop of folks in Trenton - this was bound to happen...
I wonder who will lose their seat?
Veritas vos Liberabit
Looking at Projections...
We could see two Latino districts, one possibly encompassing a few south and east Bergen towns, North Hudson, Passaic City, maybe Clifton and Paterson. The other could unify Jersey City, Elizabeth and Perth Amboy. That second seat would have no incumbent.
It looks to me it'll impossible for mapmakers to preserve VRA without putting Pascrell and Payne in the same district, or Pascrell moving to the suburbs in the next few years.
Personality Driven
The delegation changes after a redistricting with a lost seat are usually personality-driven, rather than demographically-driven.
For example, look at the 1992 redistricting. In 1992, Frank Pallone (Monmouth) was supposed to have been redistricted out of office. But Bernie Dwyer (Middlesex) announced his retirement the next day, essentially giving Pallone the new mostly Middlesex County district.
Most likely either Don Payne or Bill Pascrell (presuming they are still in office in 2012) will retire when they are redistricted in with another Congressman.
Also, take into consideration that there might be another minority-majority district created in the south (Camden-Trenton-Willingboro-Vineland). If the redistricting commission does not draw one, they could find themselves on the wrong end of a V.R.A. lawsuit.
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