The absence of a boss: gubernatorial politics and the County of Middlesex

Dislodged from his seat of power and relegated now to a halfway house in Newark, former Middlesex County Democratic Party Chairman John Lynch sits in a landscape in which this gubernatorial contest unfolds and the candidate from his party fights for political survival.

Indicted for failing to report income by former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (now the Republican nominee for governor), convicted and sentenced in 2006 to three years and three months in prison, Gov. Jim McGreevey's political genii and hard-nosed boss of the Raritan River rustbelt occupies political no man's land while Corzine flails and discord punctuates much of the sprawling county he once ruled.

"We need John Lynch," one Middlesex County Democratic Party insider moaned a coupled of weeks ago at the issuance of yet another poll showing incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine struggling to get his chin over 40% and eight points behind Christie.

"He's a missed leader in Middlesex," County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Spicuzzo said of his party forbearer, who moved to the halfway house after serving two-and-a-half years in a federal pen. "He had his own style and it was successful. I talk to him once a week. He's doing fine and will get out around Nov. 13th."

Ten days after the election.

In 2001, when Lynch was still a state senator and backing McGreevey for governor, McGreevey destroyed Bret Schundler in McGreevey's home county by 63% to 36%. Of course, there were other factors. Like now, that was a gubernatorial election year occurring one year after the victory by a new president from the opposing party. Moreover, McGreevey was popular on his home turf then - before the meltdown.

Central Jersey Democrats in the ensuing years would not only expand Middlesex power - enough to elect newcomer Corzine by a 56% to 40% margin in the county in 2005 - but seize the cross-current opportunity of voter infuriation with Bush and local county blunders to start tackling, one freeholder seat at a time, traditionally Republican Monmouth County just over the southern border.

For three years, Republicans played defense in Monmouth and in 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively lost a freeholder race to swing county control gradually and inexorably into the hands of their long humiliated county rivals, whose last successful countywide effort came in 2008 with a top down gin-up from the Presidential candidacy of Barack Obama.

On the day Democrat Amy Mallett defeated Republican John Curley, Monmouth looked like it was headed for Democratic Party rule, but a year later with Christie and Monmouth Beach resident Kim Guadagno on the GOP ticket, Curley back with some name ID now and an aggressive campaign style, Obama trying to turn the country away from the Bush years and Corzine unpopular, the keys to Monmouth government look less attainable for Democrats intent on getting Corzine reelected.

Backing three council candidates in a mid-term effort to keep control of the council in Monmouth's biggest western county town, Marlboro Mayor Jon Hornik argues that the Republican brand is still so damaged, even here, "that our campaign slogans are 'Democrats delivering change,' while theirs make no mention of party affiliation."  

But if the battle lines have shifted, Republicans argue that they have moved north from Monmouth, where "we expect to come back to Republican control," according to Webber - to Middlesex, traditionally a Democratic Party building block county.

With political animal Lynch gone, Democratic Party firefights dominant on the county landscape, and Republicans heartened by Christie's chances to win the first Republican statewide election since the 1990s, the GOP sees Monmouth as mostly friendly territory while Middlesex and Union counties have become potential hand-to-hand combat zones.

"We're playing on their side of the 50-yard line this year," said Republican State Chairman Jay Webber, noting the Christie-Guadagno campaign's regular forays into Middlesex and acknowledging GOP opportunity; which includes generally the economy and incumbency difficulty, lame duck Mayor Jun Choi's decison not to back his Democratic Primary conqueror Toni Ricigliano in the general election, a Woodbridge Democratic Party that is running local races while simultaneously fleeing Corzine, a 19th District hobbled by factionalism and the federal and state charges haunting Assemblyman Joe Vas (D-Perth Amboy), and a Latino Leadership Alliance based in New Brunswick that is at a standstill over an official gubernatorial endorsement. 

Pointing to their awesome advantage in registered voters, Democrats deny the battlefield shift, and say whatever minor intra-party tragedies and sitcoms plague the party here - as elsewhere, for that matter - the numbers still add up to a Corzine victory.

"Christie has been here, yes, but he can't afford to invest real time and a continuous effort in Middlesex County," said state Sen. Joe Vitale (D-Woodbridge). "They can visit here and there, but unless they spend disproportionately in places like Bergen and Middlesex and bombard people with ads, it's not going to happen for them here."

Vitale said Lynch's absence doesn't change much in the final analysis.

"Politically, he left behind an infrastructure that exists and individuals who know how to run an organization," said the senator.

"I still think Middlesex County is strong enough to adjust to what type of leader Jon Corzine is and to vote for him," Spicuzzo added. "My syle is different from that of John Lynch. I am a consensus leader. I make my decisions based on consensus and right now we are successful.

"We expect 1,400 people at the Pines tomorrow night for Gov. Corzine and (U.S. Sen. Bob) Menendez," Spicuzzo added.

Part of the confidence comes from what Middlesex Democrats have observed of their rivals. 

They still view as rudderless and mostly powerless the county GOP organization and its attendant, same-party detractors, who may be able to grab Christie's hand at a rally and wave a sign at a TV camera, but don't have the record of coordinating successful campaigns and so stand to lose when Democrats here crank it up for Corzine.

Even some GOP sources continue to grumble about the party's failure to assemble high octane tickets in the 19th and 14th districts, for example, to coordinate with Christie as an antidote to what Democrats brag will be, if not shock and awe, at least significantly superior GOTV operations on Election Day.  

"There's opportunity, no doubt, if we could have put together a legitimate coordinated campaign," groaned one Republican insider keyed in on Christie.

A Democrat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "They didn't get Assembly candidates who could win. They failed to realize what we all knew, which is they had a real chance to put a scare into us."

But if the GOP laments lack of coordination, Democrats are mostly pursuing a disjointed course from their top-of-the-ticket presence, actively peeling away from the governor to run their own races, independent of slogans fusing their names with Corzine's, or of pictures of them arm-in-arm with the incumbent.

As part of the speech he delivered when he was still U.S. Attorney, Christie regularly exhibited - with contempt - Lynch's jailing as an indicator of a better New Jersey - better for seeing a wayward politician like the former Middlesex boss behind bars, now due out just days after this election.

Where he is might not matter one way or the other.

In the words of a jaded political Democratic Party insider here focused strictly on local elections while shrugging off the governor's race, "We could suffer the loss of a political leader like Lynch if only we had a government leader we could back."