Local firefights could work in Corzine's favor, argues Smith; but Middlesex is a big county

NEW BRUNSWICK -  State Sen. Bob Smith (D-Piscataway) believes local contests will drive Democratic Party turnout in Middlesex County and improve Gov. Jon Corzine's opportunity for victory, particularly local fights in Woodbridge and New Brunswick.

"I'm on the hustings every night, and I can feel the momentum turning our way," said Smith, appearing with Corzine at an event to promote the governor's Return to Work program.

But talk to Democrats privately about the gubernatorial race and their worry inevitably runs to Middlesex, where Corzine scored 67% in the Democratic Primary, and where Republican Chris Christie signs make front lawn statements everywhere in the sprawl of blue collar towns here.

Sensing opportunity, Christie and his running mate, Kim Guadagno, campaigned avidly in Middlesex this summer, hitting the fairgrounds and street parades in places like Edison and Sayreville and generally stirring more enthusiasm for their candidate than a comparatively moribund Democratic Party effort.

Smith argues that a number of storm fronts could turn into positives for Corzine on Election Day, including the Edison mayoral race, where lame duck Mayor Jun Choi will not endorse Democratic Party nominee Toni Ricigliano; and an intra-party war that broke out in the 19th District over the replacement of two other candidates sidelined with issues.

"I think the 19th is now in good shape," said Smith. "(Assemblyman) John Wisniewski is a well-known quantity and (his running mate) Craig Coughlin has the experience to be a fine assemblyman. Remember, too, you have five ward seats up in Woodbridge and that is going to get a lot of people engaged." 

On paper that could appear to be a plus for Corzine. Woodbridge numbers 19,958 Democrats to 5,801 Republicans. But Woodbridge Mayor Jon McCormac, an old foe of the governor's, won't endorse Corzine and is taking what his allies call "a bottom-up approach" to the Nov. 3rd election, which essentially means they don't intend to tell their troops to vote for Corzine. 

That leaves the 22,678 undeclared voters in Middlesex County's second most voter rich town in a decisive position, and a trouble spot for the governor.

Taking the opposite approach of McCormac, Perth AMboy Mayor Wilda Diaz says she intends to continue to work hard for the governor, and gave an impassioned speech on his behalf at the opening of the governor's campaign headquarters on Washington Avenue in Newark yesterday.

Diaz's allies feel the mayor was burned by the McCormac machine that backed Coughlin over Diaz's candidate, retired Superior Court Judge Mathias Rodriguez, but though she has not yet declared any public feelings for Coughlin the candidate, she threw herself unquestionably behind Corzine.

"I speak as a wife, as a mother and as a mayor, and with Jon Corzine, we have a future," Diaz told a cheering crowd of Latinos and union workers.

Then there's Edison, the biggest nest of votes in Middlesex, where Ricigliano is up against businessman Dennis Pipala.

"I don't think the fact that Mayor Choi has chose not to endorse is going to have an impact," said Smith. "There are a huge number of registered Democratic voters in Edison. Toni won (the primary) and Democrats will coalesce behind Ricigliano. Voters know that's a personal thing between Jun and Toni. The real question is what's in the best interest of the voters of Edison."

Pipala said he's targeting Republicans, independents, and those Jun Choi Democrats left stunned by the June primary outcome when their mayor lost to Ricigliano.

"I observed a very nasty primary campaign," Pipala told PolitickerNJ.com. "We are certainly interested in that group of Democrats out there who put good government ahead of special interests. If we win this race, we could really rock the political structure of New Jersey."

"We're hoping to get very positive vibes," from Christie-Guadagno, added the Republican mayoral candidate. "The GOP mantra of less government and lower taxes is exactly what's needed right now."

Smith is confident in the Democratic to Republican margin - about 24,500 to 6,000 - even as Pipala goes after a splintered Democratic Party and the town's 18,000 undeclared voters.

In New Brunswick, a grassroots alliance of Rutgers University students, the Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey and others, is trying to get a ward government system implemented, and Smith argues "that no matter how you feel about the question, it will turn out Democratic Party voters like you couldn't believe."  

The raw numbers in New Brunswick: 7,000 Democrats versus 747 Republicans.

"I think that's probably the case," ward activist leader Charles Kratovil said of Smith's analysis. "New Brunswick is a Democratic stronghold. Without rallying the Democratic stronghold, I don't think Corzine's going to win. Certainly, we're expecting humongous turnout for the ward issue. I would be inclined to say that would play more to the advantage of Mr Corzine than Mr. Christie."

But New Brunswick, like Perth Amboy, is an urban anomaly in Middlesex, where the bulk of voters live in the suburbs and, Christie trusts, are alert to the property tax issue -and angry.