Despite the polls, Lesniak confident in blue state coupled with Christie stumbles

Democratic Party power broker Ray Lesniak says he has seen this fight before: the one where the candidate lies on the ropes and weathers all the worst of the other man's frontal assault before springing onto his toes in a later round and knocking out the opposition. 

"Chris Christie's on a downward trend and I think that will continue," said Lesniak, a veteran state senator from Union County who was a key backer of former Gov. Jim McGreevey and remains an upper eschelon player and gubernatorial confrere in his party. 

"He's on the mat," added Lesniak of Christie, undetered by a Quinnipiac University poll this morning that shows the GOP gubernatorial nominee leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points and a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll that puts Christie up by five points.

The Quinnipiac University polls shows the governor with a 34-57% favorable/unfavorable rating, compared to 41-30% for Christie, but Lesniak has confidence in the storyline he's seen before, in which Republican candidates lead early and look almost unbeatable, before Democrats close the gap late.

He said Christie's negative news headlines of recent weeks fuel his outlook.

"This is a little different this year than most years because the Republican keeps tripping over his own feet," said Lesniak. "This is a Democratic state. We vote Democratic. There would have to be a tremor in the earth for New Jerseyans to elect a Republican. The way it breaks down is like this: Christie has his negatives - plus he's a Republican. Corzine has his negatives, but he's a Democrat.

"In the meantime, all these polls are going to fluctuate," Lesniak added. "We've got two polls today. One says it's a ten point race and the other says it's a five point race. That means it's probably  between seven or eight points."