On Election Day eve, analysts offer predictions

It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory.

 

Ingrid Reed, director of the Eagleton Institute's New Jersey Project

President

• National: Obama wins with between 290 and 300 electoral votes

• New Jersey: Obama by about 15  percent

"I was watching the talk shows over the weekend, and they were up between 320 and 340 in terms of the Electoral College. I'm guessing that all races are going to be closer than people have been talking about recently. I just don't think we know enough about where the electorate is."

"I think that, from all indications, New Jersey is going to be voting very Democratic for a lot of reasons, in addition to the national picture.  So it's near Gore: 15 percent."

U.S. Senate

• Lautenberg by 15 percent.

While past Republican U.S. Senate candidates could differentiate themselves from the top of the ticket, Zimmer has not been able to.  

"Let me put it this way.  In 2000, Bob Franks chipped into Gore's lead to keep Corzine from winning by more than three percentage points. I don't think that will happen this year. I think the Senate race will be similar to the presidential race."  

Zimmer, with little money and little name recognition, has been unable to get his message out.  New Jerseyans know how to split tickets, but nothing in this race has convinced them to do so.

"I don't think Zimmer has made the case for himself or has generated the Republican support that he needs.  Even in the debates, where he was better-spoken than Lautenberg and seemed to have a sense of what he wanted his message to be, he still wasn't making the case for himself.  I don't think people got to know Zimmer, and that was one of the things he needed to achieve. I don't think you're going to see the kind of independent thinking about Lautenberg."

Congressional District 3

• Adler by 1 percent.

This one's definitely a toss-up, but it's the best chance Democrats have of capturing a Republican seat.  It's still a Republican leaning district, but lingering tensions between the Burlington and Ocean County Republican Parties over a particularly nasty primary could hurt Myers.  

It could be a long night.

Once the chips are down, Reed predicts, Adler wins by a similar margin that Mike Ferguson beat Linda Stender in the 7th District two years ago - about one percentage point.

"I'm still very conflicted on what's going to happen in that district, but I think there's a chance Adler could make it and I'm predicting that could be a district where we won't know right away....I actually think that Adler could win this, and not because he's a Democrat, but because I don't think that the Republicans have marshaled their resources in voters, money and organization as well as they could have."
   

Congressional District 7

• Lance by 1 percent.

While Zimmer hasn't given centrist voters much reason to cross party lines, Lance has.  No doubt, this race will be close, and former President Bill Clinton's last minute visit on behalf of Stender on Saturday probably gave her a boost.  But ultimately, Lance is more likely to prevail, and by a similar margin that Ferguson beat Stender in 2006 - about 1 percent.

"I think the Stender one could go for her if the Obama organization and Obama vote - it's really unpredictable, if you know what I mean. And I think Clinton probably gave her a good boost.  But it's also the district where I think it's most likely that centrist Republicans actually may vote for Obama and cross over and vote for Lance.  He could win that as narrowly as Linda lost it last time."

Congressional District 5

• Garrett by 3-5 percent.

In 2004, some New Jersey GOP towns filled with "Clifford Case Republicans" and "Rockefeller Republicans" voted for John Kerry over President Bush.  While this district is still heavily Republican, two thirds of its voters live in the Bergen County portion of the district.  That part of Bergen tends to be more Republican, but not the same ilk as Garrett's base in Warren and Sussex.  The district also touches part of Passaic County. 

"I think they were rejecting Bush in good part because of the financial situation in the country, even in 2004.  Will the centrist Republicans, that are probably mostly in Bergen County, vote for Shulman because some of them are voting for Obama?"

Garrett, whose margin of victory narrowed from 21 percent in 2002 to 11 percent in 2006, is in the fight of his political life, facing a well-funded opponent with a compelling personal narrative and few real ties to a local Democratic Party that ahs recently been associated with corruption. 

But Garrett is still likely to pull out a victory, though probably not by a very comfortable margin. 

If Shulman pulls it off, "it will be the surprise of the century." 
 

What to watch for:

Congressional District 4, where History professor Josh Zeitz is running a spirited and relatively well-funded campaign against the Dean of the New Jersey delegation, U.S. Rep. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton).  Before this time around, Smith was able to cruise to re-election with minimal effort.

Not this time. 

"I have never seen Chris Smith having to go on TV and defend himself."

Reed doesn't think Zeitz will win, but riding Obama's coattails, he could significantly narrow Smith's normally huge margin of victory.

 

Patrick Murray, pollster/political science professor at Monmouth University

President

• National: Obama with 340 electoral votes

• New Jersey: Obama by 20 percent

An absolute Obama blowout.  Murray's own poll from yesterday showed Obama leading McCain by 21 percent.   That margin ought to hold. 

"I think he might be the first presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to take New Jersey by 20 points or more."

The rest of Murray's predictions hinge on an Obama landslide. 

U.S. Senate

• Lautenberg by 18-19 percent. 

Lautenberg will easily win not because of anything he's done, but by what he hasn't done: screw up.  A large part of his victory will also be due to riding Obama's coattails. 

This would likely be a tough year for the Republican candidate no matter what, but Zimmer's late entrance and his inability to raise much money has made it virtually impossible for him to pull it off.

"Lautenberg is going to end this race, according to your website's report, with $500,000 unspent. He didn't have to spend it because he's just riding Obama's coattails."

As for Zimmer, "He didn't have any money, and quite frankly he was a reluctant candidate."

 

Congressional District 3

• Adler by 8 percent.

Again, it's all about Obama's coattails.  It's a traditionally Republican district, but Democrats are more excited than Republicans - even in this veteran heavy region.  Adler's big turnout is going to be from his native Cherry Hill and the Burlington County river towns in State Sen. Diane Allen's (R-Burlington) district.
Adler is "a lock."

"Coattails really matter in this race, and Democrats are so charged up about getting out there that Adler's money in this race, with the ability to turn out voters in Cherry Hill and those surrounding Burlington county towns, they're going to provide a nice cushion for Adler."

Congressional District 7

• Stender by 3 percent.

This is the hardest race for Murray to predict.  Reports are that Stender is slightly behind, but the district seems to be joining the statewide blue trend.  Pay close attention to genteel Somerset County, where for the first time Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in voter registrations.  It is perhaps the best bellwether for the district's changing demographics.

"This race is going to be won in Somerset County, and the local Democratic organization is more excited than they usually are about elections. One election I'm going to be paying attention to as a portend for 2009 is the Somerset County freeholder race.  I don't anticipate that the Democrats will win, but I think they'll come a lot closer than they ever have for those seats, and I think that's going to say a lot about realignment in New Jersey."

 

Congressional District 5

• Garrett by 1 percent.

This late breaking competitive race is the most fascinating one of the election cycle, according to Murray.  But Dennis Shulman is going to wind up being the Linda Stender of 2008.  In 2006, she came within 3,000 votes of ousting Ferguson, making the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lament not making her a top priority until late in the cycle.

Murray hasn't polled this race, but he wishes he had the money and resources to do so. 

"I think the Democrats are going to wake up on Wednesday morning wishing they had spent more money on Dennis Shulman."

What to watch for:

U.S. Reps. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton), Frank LoBiondo (R-Vineland) and maybe even Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) may have shallower margins of victory than usual, though they all appear to be shoe-ins for re-election.

The big surprises for Murray: if Adler doesn't win, and if the Bergen County Republicans actually elect a freeholder, despite the Bergen County Democrats' legal woes.

 

Brigid Harrison, professor of Political Science at Montclair State University

President:

• National: Obama wins 8-10 percent of the popular vote and 340 electoral votes

• New Jersey: Obama by 18 percent

Another Obama landslide prediction.  Sure, this state was high on Hillary during the run up to the primaries, but the state's blue trending made it easy for the "national phenomenon of Obama mania to really take hold very quickly."

Not only that, but President Bush's rock bottom approval ratings in the Garden State combined with McCain's "failure to reach out to voters or for his message to resonate" and Obama's charisma have all the trappings of an Obama rout. 

"When you look at some of the registration numbers, they're mind boggling. The interesting story is the historic turnout that's going to occur." 

U.S. Senate

• Lautenberg by 15 percent.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where Zimmer could have won, but "it could have been tighter."  The problem isn't just Obama's coattails, but Zimmer's campaign. 

"I think that significant Obama coattails, Senatorial incumbency in general, and his high name recognition, even among first time voters.  And in this case, I really do think we can point to a failure in Dick Zimmer's campaign to really get his message off the ground, resonate with voters, for his campaign to gain any traction whatsoever - it just didn't happen."

Congressional District 3

• Adler by 3 percent or less

Harrison said that she doesn't trust most of the polling in this district, especially the campaigns' internals.  But based on the one poll she trusts, the Press of Atlantic City's Zogby poll, the race is a statistical dead heat.  Again, it comes down to Obama's coattails. 

It's going to be a "squeaker."

"I know that everybody says it's a statistical dead heat. I think that the coattails of Obama, the Obama organization and the record breaking voter turnout" translate into an Adler victory.

Congressional District 7

• Stender by 3 percent or less

At any other time, Lance might have been able to pull this one off, despite Stender's fundraising advantage and previous run.  But the enthusiasm gap at the top of the ticket was just too much to overcome, and while there will likely be some ticket-splitters who vote Obama and Lance, it won't be enough to push him over the line.

"I don't necessarily think that either of these candidates necessarily would have won without Obama coattails, but I think it's really tough being a republican running in the state of New Jersey this year."

Congressional District 5

• Garrett by 5 percent.

Garrett hangs on because of how Republican the district is, his fundraising advantage and the power of incumbency.

"It's really difficult to unseat an incumbent member of the House of Representatives.  They enjoy a 92 percent re-election rate.  Unless someone is highly damaged. I don't think you can characterize Scott Garrett as highly damaged."

Shulman has run a very good campaign, but this is a Republican district, and will likely stay that way unless it disappears after redistricting. 

 

What to watch for:

How many new voters will only vote the top of the ticket, and leave the booth with the down ballot races unchecked. 

"I think particularly with these new voters, we don't know if they're going to plunk for Obama and walk out of the voting booth. So I think that they have really big implications for next year."

Also, watch Frank Lautenberg's behavior after he wins.  Who's going to be his heir apparent, should he not serve out the full term?  There are plenty of Congressmen who would love the opportunity. 

"It will be interesting to see the Democrats lining up."

 

Dan Cassino, pollster and political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University

President

• National: Obama with 350 electoral votes.

• New Jersey: Obama by 14 percent

"The biggest polls have had Obama up by about 15 percent, and assuming the independents  split by about 50-50, we're looking at a 14 point advantage for Obama." 

U.S. Senate

• Lautenberg by 18 percent -  59 percent to 41 percent. 

Congressional District 3

• Adler by 4 percent - 52 percent to 48 percent

Myers faced a tough primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly that not only cost him a lot of money, but fractured Republican support in crucial Ocean County.  Adler's biggest disadvantage is that he's from Cherry Hill - the only part of his legislative district that overlaps with the Congressional district.  But his huge fundraising advantage more than makes up for that.

"I think his get out the vote operation is blowing Myers out of the water in the last couple days."

Congressional District 7

• Stender by a relatively wide margin - 54 percent-46 percent

There's a simple reason why Stender will beat Lance. 

"It's the money."

In the last toxic year for Republicans, Stender came within a few thousand votes of topping Ferguson, despite being out-funded 2-1.  Now Lance doesn't have the advantage of incumbency, and he's the one being outspent 2-1.

"I really don't see how he wins it. I think Stender's going to win by a pretty wide margin."

Congressional District 5

•  Shulman by a nose - 51 percent to 49 percent

Garrett is proud of his 100 percent rating from the American Conservative Union.  But his district, while Republican, is not that conservative.  Garrett outspent his last opponent, Paul Aronsohn, by a 2-1 margin, but only won with 55 percent of the vote.  While the incumbent holds a fundraising advantage over Shulman, it's not huge, and they've been spending roughly equally.

"That would be my upset special."

What to watch for:

Keep an eye on Frelinghuysen/Wyka in District 11. 

"Not that I think Wyka is going to stand a chance, but it's going to be a good barometer for how Democrats are doing statewide."

If Wyka breaks 40 percent, it's a sign of a "strong generic anti-Republican incumbent vote" - worse for the GOP than in 2006. 

Related: The Pindell Report's New Jersey predictions.