So far, Democrats have no challenger to Lance

By Matt Friedman | November 11th, 2009 - 4:42pm

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Ask Republicans about candidate recruitment in the 3rd Congressional District, where freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) is expected to face a tough challenge to keep his seat, and you'll hear a long list of potential candidates.

Ask Democrats the same question in freshman U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance's (R-Clinton) 7th Congressional District, and you hear just a couple names.

One of them is Summit Mayor Jordan Glatt, who is considered a formidable potential candidate owing to his personal wealth and the fact that he's the first Democratic mayor in the history of his town, a Republican stronghold. But he's not interested.

"Quite honestly, I feel that Leonard Lance is doing a very good job. I know it's probably going to irk my Democratic colleagues, but he's a good man," he said. "I would have to have some passion about the person I'm running against."

Outgoing Edison Mayor Jun Choi is not interested either.

"I just got married and we're going to start a family, so personally it's not a good time," he said. "I'm flattered that people would consider me."

Fanwood Mayor colleen Mahr, however, did not rule out a run.

"I will say I thoroughly enjoy government and politics, and I plan on staying around," she said.

Political consultant Pat Politano - who works campaigns in Union County - said that there will be a major recruitment effort starting shortly.

"There will be efforts to find a candidate, but the reality is that democrats across the state knew we were in a tough election year and nobody has focused on that," he said, stressing the importance of unseating a congressman from a rival party in his first term.

"The likelihood of a member of the House of Representatives being beat in anything other than their first term is less than their likelihood of dying in office," he said. "If you don't get them in their first term, you usually don't get them."

Who to run against Lance will probably be a frequent topic of discussion at the League of Municipalities convention next week.

Still, in off-the-record conversations, many Democrats admit a deep respect for Lance, a pro-choice moderate policy wonk who, over a 17 year career in the state legislature, developed a pro-environment record and friendships in both parties. Late last year, state Sen. Raymond Lesniak (D-Elizabeth) said on the Senate floor that he privately told Lance he hoped he would win on election day and called him "the best candidate" - even though Lance had just beaten Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood), who, like Lesniak, is a Union County Democrat.

But aside from his amicable relations with top Democrats, several factors make unseating Lance a difficult prospect.

For one, mid-term elections typically mean losses for the incumbent president's party. Although forecasts differ on how bad 2010 will be for Democrats, the belief that they will lose seats is nearly universally held. That does not help with candidate recruitment in a traditionally Republican district, where a Democratic candidate only came close to unseating a Republican once - in 2006, when Stender narrowly lost to incumbent Mike Ferguson (R-Warren) in her first run for the office, during a nationwide anti-Republican wave.

As far as national support goes, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) will pour significant resources into the district when they have more seats to defend than in 2008. The DCCC has issued periodic press releases hitting Lance and other New Jersey Republicans for their votes against the stimulus and health care bills. The Democratic National Committee has also targeted Lance in press releases criticizing his vote against the health care reform bill.

And with New Jersey possibly losing a congressional seat after the next census is taken, some Democrats would rather see how redistricting shapes up before challenging Lance

There has been more talk about a challenge to Lance from the right than the left. His vote in favor of the cap and trade bill - together with two other New Jersey Republicans - brought forth threats of a primary from conservatives.

But the election of Republican Gov.-Elect Chris Christie put a damper on that talk.

"I think if Chris would have lost, it would be a free fall right now. There wouldn't necessarily be any leadership at the top. There would be a conservative faction and a moderate faction," said Union County GOP Chairman Phil Morin. "It's early to judge, but we certainly don't have that climate right now."

Assemblyman and state Sen.-Elect Michael Doherty (R-Washington Twp.) - among the most conservative legislators in the state - believes that Lance is safe.

"I have no intention of doing it or supporting anyone else to do it," said Doherty, who does not live in Lance's district but represents parts of it in the legislature. "In my opinion, Leonard Lance is not going to have a primary challenge."

But conservative political consultant Rick Shaftan disagreed.

"Lance will absolutely have a primary. He is the most likely to have one - he has no friends," said Shaftan. "People who will raise the kind of money that cap and trade is going to raise are people who aren't going to care what Chris Christie thinks... They're conservatives, and it's a question of the candidate raising money. If the candidate is aggressive, it won't make a difference what the political situation is."

Tags:

Why don't you get a real

Submitted by LiberalFascist on November 11, 2009 - 5:04pm.

Why don't you get a real "conservative" consultant instead of a failed campaign killer like Shaftan?

Of course there might be a primary - Shaftan will look to run someone so he can make some more cash.

Excuse me.

Submitted by Republican Cons... on November 11, 2009 - 5:13pm.

Why would Democrats want to challenge Lance? With RINOs like Lance who need Democrats?

"If you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspapers, you are misinformed." - Mark Twain

Shaftan

Submitted by garfieldrepublican on November 11, 2009 - 5:22pm.

We hear that Lonegan is moving out of Bogota
to that district. Any truths to the rumor ?

Could not have said it better

Submitted by Di Marco on November 11, 2009 - 5:24pm.

You are 100% correct, Republican Conscience. Having a democrat in that seat would have produced almost the exact same voting record.

"Lance will absolutely have

Submitted by Florio2013 on November 11, 2009 - 6:57pm.

"Lance will absolutely have a primary. He is the most likely to have one - he has no friends," That's more friends than Shaftan has.

"I have no intention of

Submitted by Florio2013 on November 11, 2009 - 7:01pm.

"I have no intention of doing it or supporting anyone else to do it," said Doherty," Not even Lonegan? I guess we now know where Doherty keeps his prnciples.

Shaftan Insight

Submitted by ThomasNJShore on November 11, 2009 - 11:16pm.

Did Shaftan win his "consultant" title in a cereal box? Say what you want about Lance's voting record, but he is a statesman and our state could use more like him. I'm really glad he voted against the terrible health care bill.

But back to Shaftan's amazing insight. Mid-story some other consultant, Politano, who I'm guessing is a democrat has a quote which is reasonable...yes the best time to get out an incumbent is after the first term.

Then Shaftan ends the story with the age old elementary school burn of "I have more friends than you do." I would expect nothing less of a graduate from Bovine University.

Think aout this ThomasNJShore

Submitted by Republican Cons... on November 12, 2009 - 6:23am.

Lonegan lost but he had the entire RINO-Rich Republican Organization using their muscle to bring on the coronation of Christie. Lonegan still gave Christie a fight even though the NJGOP RINOs lacked the male anatomy to stick to their principles. If the NJGOP didn't cower at the mention of the NJEA, CWA union, and the media, and stood and fought for principles then NJ would never have turned Blue.

Shaftan is a genius when it comes to getting free publicity. Everyone forgets:

The Junk Bond tour in a garbage truck
Protesting Affirmative Action on MLK Day on the court house steps
Protesting the school not allowing Christmas Carols and getting arrested.

Shaftan can be abrasive, crude and rude at times but he certainly earned his "consultant" title.

"If you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspapers, you are misinformed." - Mark Twain

By the way

Submitted by Republican Cons... on November 12, 2009 - 6:41am.

Lonegan does not have the temperament to serve in the House of Representatives or the Senate. Lonegan needs to control and being one voice in 435 would give him fits. Unless of course he was using it as a stepping stone to a higher office like the one currently occupied by an anti-American, terrorist-loving, business-hating, divisive, socialist, tyrannical foreigner, who is set out to destroy the United States from within.

"If you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspapers, you are misinformed." - Mark Twain

Speculation on a Challenge by Colleen Mahr

Submitted by SHKNY on November 12, 2009 - 7:49am.

There is logic that can go either way here. The Mayor recently lost two Democratic Council associates, leaving her as the tie-breaker on s aplit Borough Council. She is faced witht the same structural budget problems as are other small municipalities, and the results of a shared services study with Scotch Plains may not be well received by her constituents. On the other hand, Fanwood is more bipartisan than most places. More importantly, however, is that in a run against Lance she would run into the same political skew as did her Fanwood predecessor Linda Stender: the Congressional district skews west (Somerset / Hunterdon) while the political base of Union County skews east; Elizabeth is not a part of the Congressional district at all.

Lance = RINO?

Submitted by The Centrist on November 12, 2009 - 9:29am.

I guess any Republican who is pro-choice (by the way, pro-choice is actually a CONSERVATIVE position if you think about it logically) and who occasionally crosses the aisle to vote with Democrats is a RINO.

Leonard Lance is a moderate, centrist Republican who often voted against Gov. Whitman's budgets, and who voted against McGreevey and Corzine's repeated efforts to tax us to death in NJ. I would classify Lance as a fiscal hawk -- cut from a similar cloth as former Rep. Dick Zimmer.

Most viable Democrats won't run against Lance in 2010 because they know he is articulate, smart as a whip and an underrated campaigner. And don't you think, if Lance was such a "RINO," that someone would have challenged him in a District-23 primary all these years?

I'll take things a step further: Should there be a vacancy in the U.S. Senate while Christie is governor, I bet Lance is on the short list. He attracts independent and even Democrat votes.

Centirst

Submitted by Republican Cons... on November 12, 2009 - 10:30am.

Keep drinking the Koolaid.

There is only 1 Republican Congressman from New Jersey and that is Garrett. There is only one Republican Assemblyman and that is Michale Patrick Carroll. There are no, I repeat NO Republican State Senators in New Jersey. If you think putting an R next to your name makes you a Republican, you need to get a better education.

"If you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspapers, you are misinformed." - Mark Twain

primary

Submitted by virgin21 on November 12, 2009 - 10:35am.

Lance has more to worry from a primary challenge than in the general election. Dems will be playing defense nationwide in 2010 and won't be able to seriously challenge here. Leonard has bought himself a primary challenge from the right on his cap and trade vote alone.

For example, soon-to-be State Senator Mike Doherty (R-23).

And the good thing about Doherty's victory in the June 2009 Primary is that we got rid of St. Sen. Marcia Karrow (RINO/DIABLO-23) at the same time.

(Mmmm. I'm so happy.)

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