Kasparain and Yudin are huge stakeholders in '09 election

The Bergen County Republican and Democratic chairmen both have a lot riding on the November 3rd election.

Not only is Bergen - the most populous of the state's 21 counties - expected to be hotly contested between Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial nominee Christopher Christie, but that race will likely have down-ballot implications that could change the course of the county's politics, put control of its government at stake in 2010 and shape the reputations of its two relatively new party chairs. 

The political fortunes of both men - and both parties -- are pegged to the gubernatorial race. 

For GOP chairman Robert Yudin, having Christie at the top of the ticket opposing an unpopular Democratic governor gives his minority party its best shot at picking up a freeholder seat since Lisa Randall won one in 2003.  It's a county that Christie's campaign has paid a lot of attention to, aware that they are not exempt from the New Jersey political wisdom that Republicans cannot win statewide without it.  The flip side for Yudin is that, if Christie wins Bergen but neither of the freeholder candidates win, he will get the blame for a missed opportunity and potentially suffer the consequences when his first term is up in June, 2010. 

Democratic Chairman Michael Kasparian, a developer, has an entirely different but equally difficult situation.  Last winter he took over control of a party that holds all but one county-wide office.  But it has seen its share of problems since the indictment of its powerful former chairman, Joe Ferriero, on corruption charges that he will have to fight in court in October - the peak of the campaign season.  Fundraising - Ferriero's specialty - is more difficult with the economy in shambles, and the party's debt picture is not yet clear, since Kasparian has not yet released an audit he commissioned.  If Republicans pull off a victory, Kasparian risks being saddled with the blame for the party's decline. 

If Republicans win even one seat on the freeholder board this year, they'll have a shot at control next year, when three Democratic freeholders, Sheriff Leo McGuire and County Executive Dennis McNerney are up for reelection.  If Christie is in office, Yudin said, Bergen Republicans will feel a sense of momentum. 

"New Jersey is considered a blue state. Bergen is considered a blue county.  And this is really considered a meaningful election," said Yudin, who said that a victory for his two freeholder candidates and maybe even some assembly candidates would mean that "the Republican Party in the state and the Republican Party in Bergen County is back." 

Yudin knows the pain of losing.  He ran for freeholder unsuccessfully three times before he wrested the party's chairmanship from Rob Ortiz in June of last year.  His 2008 freeholder candidates - Chris Calabrese, Jeff Heller and Paul Duggan -- all lost, but by narrower margins than recent races and in a year when Democrats benefited immensely from the Obama wave (Republican County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, who ran a campaign separate from the freeholders, still managed to be the county candidates' top vote getter). 

Now, Republicans are running Mahwah Councilman Rob Hermansen and Paramus activist John Driscoll against Democratic incumbents Julie O'Brien and Vernon Walton. 

Yudin's party is not completely unified.  He backed Calabrese to run for freeholder again, only to watch the county committee vote for Hermansen.  His support for a challenger to long-time state committeewoman Eleanor Nissley was overwhelmingly rebuffed.

Yudin has his share of critics.  He prefers not to go into detail or name his detractors, but his relationship with Donovan has been icy, and his tenure has included several intra-party squabbles. 
   
"There are a handful of people who are my detractors, who are upset that I'm the chairman and don't like me and don't want me in this position," he said.  "When our candidates don't win they blame me. When our candidates win they say it's despite me."
   
Meanwhile, Driscoll and Hermansen are running what appear to be separate campaigns. They are not often seen together, though Hermansen attributes that to geography.

"There are 70 towns. If we're in the same place at the same time it means you can't cover as much as you want to," he said. 

Hermansen stressed that Republicans "have to win this year," but said he would not read the race as a referendum on Yudin and that he was not depending on Christie's coattails. 

"If they do win, is that something that will be a positive for him? Sure, it will be. But it will tell you even more of John Driscoll and myself as candidates and who we are,' he said.

Republican consultant David Murray, who has 30 years of experience in Bergen County politics, said that a Christie victory of 6%  - about 15,000 votes, based on the 2005 voter turnout - would probably have a coattail effect for freeholder candidates.

"In large measure what happens down ballot is going to be influenced by the top of the ticket, it's going to be influenced by party preference, and I believe in this case it's going to be influenced by incumbency," said Murray.  "Are people going to turn out for freeholders?  No. they're going to turn out for the top of the ticket."

As for Kasparian, some Democrats won't blame him in the event of a Christie landslide.

"Believe it or not, I think his salvation will be that if there's a landslide in Bergen it's not anything he did it's the Corzine campaign," said one Democratic insider. 

Although some Democratic insiders grouse that Kasparian is not able to devote as much attention to the party as Ferriero did, high ranking elected officials tend to give him the benefit of the doubt on the record. 

"He's had to learn some new things, but I think he's doing a pretty good job," said state Sen. Bob Gordon (D-Fair Lawn).  "We're raising money.  We have fundraisers planned.  And I'm confident that our two freeholder candidates will win and will do well for Jon Corzine."

Veteran Democratic operative Chris Eilert, the Chief of Staff to State Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Wood-Ridge), said that "every chairman is measured by their success on election day."

"So this election is very important for Chairman Kasparian, as it would be for any chairman." 

Kasparian could not be reached for comment.