Dems disappointed, but not crushed, by lack of poll movement

Heartened by three weeks of negative news about Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie, Democrats hoped to see independent polls reflect a tightening race.  They did not get their wish today. 

A Quinnipiac University poll released today put Christie ahead of Governor Corzine by 10 points – a four point increase from their poll last month.  Another independent poll released today from Fairleigh Dickinson University put Christie ahead by 5 points – virtually the same as FDU’s poll last month. 

Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan, however, says that he and other Democrats are not worried.

“We have a campaign strategy that lays out how to get to our vote goal numbers.  It lays it out pretty carefully. I admit it’s internal, but I think party folks in particular have seen part of what we’ve laid out so far and its intended consequences.  So I think people understand we’re going to get to where we need to be,” Cryan said. 

Privately, some Democrats express concern and disappointment that the horse race numbers have not moved.  But the renewed sense of optimism about Corzine’s chances -- which came after morale bottomed out in the wake of July’s “Corruption Thursday” bust of mostly Democratic politicians -- has not disappeared. 

One Democrat from a must-win county for Corzine said that one key strategy is simple and appears to be working so far, since Christie’s negatives have increased.  Democrats hope to poke holes in Christie’s reputation to suppress voter turnout on election day, allowing the state’s Democratic machines – if they work as well as they have for the last several election cycles – to turn out the base for Corzine.

Others say that the negative news on Christie may take a little more time to sink in. 

“I know it’s cliché to say that two months is an eternity in politics, but in this case it’s true,” said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, who is not involved in the Corzine campaign. 

But Roginsky stressed that the Corzine campaign needs to do more than convince New Jerseyans not to vote for Christie.

“What he needs to do is reinforce and build up his positive, build up Christie’s negatives, like he has, and then continue to be on the offensive, and that’s when those numbers move,” she said.

That’s where jobs come in, according to Democratic operative Pat Politano, who works for local parties and candidates in Union and Monmouth counties.

“The campaign must be about who can create and maintain good paying jobs in New Jersey. That’s the way we win. That’s what they trust us on, always have trusted us on. That’s what we have to talk about,” he said.

Among Chrisie’s vulnerable spots in this area is his statement during the Republican primary that he would reject the portion of the federal stimulus funds for New Jersey that had “strings attached.”  Corzine has touted the recent creation of 13,000 new private sector jobs in the state, even though the overall unemployment rate increased, although it has not been central to the campaign strategy. 

Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy, who last month moved the race’s rating from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up,” said that the spate of negative news and advertisements about Christie gave her pause, making her reassess her decision to move the rating “on a micro level.” (Duffy is more reluctant to discount the effect of Corzine’s wealth on the race than her counterparts at the Rothenberg Political Report and Congressional Quarterly, who both currently rate the race in Christie’s favor). 

Today’s polls reaffirmed Duffy’s rating, but she does not think Christie has shown himself impervious to the damage of negative news cycles.  Corzine’s advertisement released yesterday, she said, repackages Christie’s $46,000 loan to former First Assistant U.S. Attorney Michele Brown in a way that could damage Christie – even if today’s Quinnipiac poll found that voters narrowly considered attacking Christie based on the loan unfair.

Cozine’s new ad says that Christie, in not reporting the loan on disclosure forms or paying tax on the $420 he made in interest, has “one set of rules for himself, another for everyone else.” 

“Now that it’s been packaged and I’m going to assume focused-grouped to death, I want to see what it does,” said Duffy.